[xyzcf]

Previous thread:
https://mlcforum.theherosspouse.com/index.php?topic=11445.0

Recent articles posted by HS members on previous thread:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/anthony-faucis-boss-on-why-things-could-be-much-better-soon.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB&fbclid=IwAR3ae0nX0qFVHCG_MttS0cwiAS0lK_cYDEcJHBybdIR_TBCuzmOhB7-zmbs

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/09/1004935/these-are-the-factors-that-put-you-at-higher-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19/?utm_source=digg

There are several others and it is great that members are contributing to this body of knowledge from their reading and around the world.

[Milly]

Joining the new thread, xy. Thank you.

[marvin4242]

More data in an intriguing correlation between TB vaccine and reduction in mortality. I haven’t seen any theories as to why, but it seems data shows a correlation on countries that have a consistent TB vaccination policy and reduction in deaths when all other factors are accounted for. It doesn’t appear enough to recommend vaccinations, at least not right now. But it may an interesting path to follow about why and how it could be used.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/07/2008410117

[xyzcf]

So much research being done worldwide.

Everyday, new information is added to the body of knowledge.

I was very interested in the article marvin posted concerning BCG vaccination both because I was given BCG as a child in Quebec and I once was head of a tuberculosis program in the public health dept that I worked in.

Here is the issue though, information like this comes out and well meaning people think, ok, let's start giving people BCG. However, the vaccine itself has several risks and the following is a concern when it comes to identifying actual cases of tuberculosis.

"Another concern with the administration of BCG is its effect on the tuberculin skin test. Because administration of BCG induces a positive skin test of variable size in a large proportion of vaccinated individuals, this reaction will make the interpretation of skin test results in contact tracing more difficult and, thus, damage a valuable tool in the control of TB transmission in the community."

As an aside, if you have ever had a positive skin test (and the measurement that indicates it to be positive depends on several facts so best to consult and expert on this) you should not have another skin test done as it can get progressively larger each time you are given it.

Many of you may have received a Mantoux test to rule out that you have been exposed to TB or have active disease. I have a very severe reaction to this test most probably because I received BCG as a child. Vaccines do not give us complete immunity to a disease so I could still get TB...only a skin test, which is one of the main tools used to determine if I have been exposed is useless in my case.

The problem with all the misinformation floating about is that immunology is very complicated and the ordinary person is not really going to be able to understand some or most of it.

The CDC does an amazing job of simplifying information so that the general public can understand infectious diseases better.

I am terribly disturbed that the US is going to withdraw from the WHO because it is the WHO that coordinates the many health issues world wide. We are a global family and what happens in other countries can and will impact the health of this nation..whether you agree or not that we should discuss issues on HS from a political standpoint, the reality is that withdrawl from the WHO will be bad for the US and ultimately the world.

[Treasur]

I know that some of our US folks here might feel that the US is getting a lot of attention (and judgment) about its response to the coronavirus. It seems to me though that they are far from alone in finding that their politicians and political system has not worked as well as we might all have wished. I guess this kind of crisis highlights the inherent character of those in power and the weaknesses of our existing systems.

Here in the UK, the NHS has many things about it for which we feel grateful. But we have not been particularly competent in dealing with the practicalities of the crisis and people have lost confidence in a government system that communicates poorly and seems to be looking for political scapegoats. And some priorities that seem odd and last minute announcements that seem not to be well thought through before announcement. With a compassionate eye, one can accept that all of us - including politicians - are dealing with a set of complex and novel challenges and that there are many areas of uncertainty. But sometimes one just has that feeling that the world looks a bit different if you are sitting inside a political bunker than it does outside in the real world. As an example.....the NHS went through two significant bouts of large scale organisational restructuring in 2002 and 2012. Both were expensive, long drawn out and created long periods of confusion about control and accountability. Both had large elements of cutting large bits into smaller bodies and creating various versions of an internal 'market' and the use of 3rd party providers outside the NHS. It is not a primary sector of expertise for me when I was a consultant working with leadership teams, but on the few occasions I did I saw a system that, despite the best efforts of many good people, had been thrown into a world with very unclear boundaries and relationships between disparate parts. A process of being 'given' a structure that took a few years for humans to work out how to make it work that brought a tremendous amount of stress to those working in it.....

And now apparently Mr Johnson has decided according to the latest news that NOW is a good time to reorganise the NHS again......https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/10/what-might-boris-johnson-restructing-plan-mean-for-the-nhs

All I could do was shake my head in disbelief.....
Do I think that this crisis is also a way to reimagine how bits of our societies and systems might work differently? Yes. Do I think that this crisis may have shown us weaknesses or highlighted new priorities? Yes
Do I think that - when we are still navigating a crisis with a barely functioning economy and exhausted NHS staff who have pulled miracle rabbits out of hats for the last few months and without an efficient test/trace system or time to have set up a 'new normal' way of wider health and social care operating in the absence of a vaccine - NOW is the time to unleash a huge restructuring process run by a government that has not yet shown that it is operationally and logistically very competent? Oh my goodness, no. Even if the goals of it were clear and worthwhile, this kind of restructuring is messy, complicated and takes a lot of organisational energy.  It is depressing to even think what a hash could be created or how much it might distract energy from the realities that need to be dealt with yet. And we have not withdrawn from WHO, true enough, but we have withdrawn from EU bodies linked to vaccination issues bc of a still pretty unclear Brexit departure at the end of the year....a tow-headed politician who withers on about going to the pub or blames care homes or spends millions on tracing apps that everyone knows don't work starts to look rather out of touch with the reality of life for his voters

Looking from the outside, it seems to me that we are all judging our politicians and systems of collective governance with a different eye than we did before this crisis. I have no idea at all where that will take us in any of our countries.....but I'm pretty clear that no one country takes the single prize for incompetence. Mr Trump is noisy and the US is a significant global player historically, that's true, but all of us are likely to be dealing with changes in how we see ourselves as countries, societies and communities....and the extent to which our political systems seem fit for new purpose or not.

Trust seems to me to be a newly important thing.
The absence of trust in our collective bodies....government, healthcare, corporate entities...makes it more difficult to operate collectively doesn't it? And every time we feel gaslit by what they say or do, a little bit more of that trust is chipped away.

And, even if we had the perfect vaccine, any programme of vaccination would have to do much better than the average current percentage take up of say annual flu vaccines in order to achieve its minimum collective immunity goal. Will people trust either the politicians or experts sufficiently to be vaccinated if that becomes a possibility? Idk. Finding sources of information that each of us feels we can trust is an important bit of the process for all of us isn't it? And some of the behaviour we see in our fellow citizens seems to me to be part of that unfolding process of how we all choose to respond when things are not so clear or when we don't have the kind of feeling of control or certainty that as humans we crave. Jmo.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I have no desire to denigrate my own gender but here are a few interesting articles related to Treasur's post.

Countries with female leaders suffer six times fewer COVID-19 deaths
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-countries-female-leaders-covid-deaths.html

Why Are Women-Led Nations Doing Better With Covid-19?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/world/coronavirus-women-leaders.html

What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common? Women Leaders
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#70be46133dec

Are women leaders better at fighting coronavirus? It’s complicated.
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/21/21263766/coronavirus-women-leaders-germany-new-zealand-taiwan-merkel

[xyzcf]

Dr Abdu Sharkway is a physician in Toronto that is down to earth and very specific about some ways to keep yourself safe. Here was a list he posted of ways to be able to entertain outdoors and some things to follow which I found very helpful.


Dr. Abdu Sharkawy
2 hrs
Covid-19 Summer Series (Segment #1)
BBQ Season: Grilling and Chilling

Want to enjoy summer with your friends and family with some great food and conversation? Me too. Here are my “Grill master Tips” for enjoying some eats and greets.

1. Hand Hygiene. Hand sanitizer before and after food prep and eating for all. Duh. Don’t forget that it should be at least 60% alcohol-based to effectively kill most viruses and bacteria. Baby wipes and other wipes are not reliable for this purpose and should be avoided. Soap and water is best but requires guests entering your home which should not be encouraged. Lysol wipes are best reserved for disinfecting surfaces and are not healthy for your skin.

2. Distancing. Outdoor transmission of Covid-19 is rare but not non-existent. Keep your chairs 6 feet apart if possible and avoid sitting next to one another on tables. Picnic blankets or mats on your lawn or similar space are options as well to allow more room and comfort for everyone. You do NOT need a mask outdoors if you are seated at a distance.

3. Food preparation. Too many cooks spoil the soup, right? Well, too many hands on the grill means too many bugs to kill! One person should be designated as lead cook/chef. If you have a more elaborate menu and need help, the chefs/kitchen staff should be limited to members of your own household at the very least. In my home, I am the Grill master and as the resident lead “germaphobe”, this bodes well for my guests!

4. Serving. Bugs love the buffet more than you do! Like food prep, serving should be done by one designated person only. No buffet or family style serving arrangements please. Pre-served meals is another option. Think of it as hospitality Covid-19 style ; ) Everyone should maintain their own utensils and should have pre-placed napkins, wipes available to them at their seating areas.

5. Beverages. If you have a pitcher of your favorite brew or mix, one person does the serving (is there an echo in here?). Reusable cups or beverage containers should be labeled with names or somehow marked to distinguish as their own.

6. Bathrooms. It’s awkward to tell your guests they can’t use your washroom, especially if you are the one who filled them up with food and drink like it was Mardi Gras. But... you don’t want to encourage it freely and allow possible indoor exposures if avoidable. If not, ensure kids are accompanied with an adult and that the washroom is wiped down (sink and toilet) between uses.

Enjoy the grill! Coming up next...Parks, Playgrounds and Playdates.
Stay informed. Stay safe and stay healthy everyone!

#GrillNChill #CoVidSummerSeries #CoVidNotIncluded

[marvin4242]

A summary of where things stands with various treatments and drugs as the evidence and data points to today. Good information based on hard science. Rated on a scale of from strong evidence to pseudoscience/fraud.

Hydroxychloroquine is in the "not promising" group, one up from Ineffective and harmful.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html

[terra]

Anecdotally, this latest idea that USA hospitals should bypass the known channels and report COVID-19 data directly to the Trump administration rather than to the CDC...

Politics aside, this causes disruption in the hospital environment just as it would for any other organization. In the science environments, we have to adapt protocols, trainings, and work procedures with associated documentation, before we are authorized to perform the new or changed task(s). And the organization or company has to report to whatever governing or standardization body that we have met the new standard. That means every worker is required to take time out of existing work tasks to sit through and complete the required training.

Everyone dislikes this, even if we understand why a particular change and retraining is now needed. Which, often it’s *not* understood exactly why. Global standards eventually make sense. Arbitrary ones usually don’t. So there’s dissent, and if there’s too much change or the wrong kind of change, people burn out and then you have employee exodus or loss of workers who hold a ton of key tribal knowledge and expertise. Then the work falls to employees who remain, or new ones are hired...and have to be trained. Which takes time. And often a period of handholding or organizational mentorship, which, in the sciences and medical fields, we don’t really have time for that, even in ordinary times, which these are definitely not.

I say “we” but I don’t speak for everyone of course. Just my observation over the course of decades and many environments with more people than I can count.

I’m not actually working right now, in those fields or any others. Partly because these environments are so pressured at this time, that hiring has come to a dead stop or is very, very, very particular. Because right now is just astounding.

I hope everyone here is doing well. We have I think months to go before the health crisis begins to resolve. I find most of the news pretty unsettling, not just because it is overall pretty scary, but because the governmental actions and/or reasoning have direct impact on my ability to find work in the environments that made so much of my career.

Weird times, for sure. Just continue doing what is smart, what your doctors would advise, and let’s get through all this.

[OffRoad]

A summary of where things stands with various treatments and drugs as the evidence and data points to today. Good information based on hard science. Rated on a scale of from strong evidence to pseudoscience/fraud.

Hydroxychloroquine is in the "not promising" group, one up from Ineffective and harmful.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html

Very informative. This article needs to be read very carefully, though.
"Putting out Friendly Fire"
STRONG EVIDENCE
"Dexamethasone
This cheap and widely available steroid blunts many types of immune responses. Doctors have long used it to treat allergies, asthma and inflammation. In June, it became the first drug shown to reduce Covid-19 deaths. That study of more than 6,000 people, which has not yet been published in a scientific journal, found that dexamethasone reduced deaths by one-third in patients on ventilators, and by one-fifth in patients on oxygen. It may be less likely to help — and may even harm — patients who are at an earlier stage of Covid-19 infections, however.

BBM. The study has not been peer reviewed AND may even cause harm in some cases. While it might end up the be all, end all study for this particular drug for "Putting out Friendly Fire" for SOME cases of Covid, it might not for others. (How this equates to Strong Evidence for ALL of Covid cases/deaths, I'm not quite sure, I need to look further). This is where reading skills come in handy.

[marvin4242]

Offroad this is a summary of info, not source material. It is pretty accurate overall.

The issue with steroids is its a very tricky balance. Too little and you don’t shut down the cytokine storm. Too much and you depress immune system too much and let the virus run rampant. So when the article is published we can all read and others will review. But it would make sense that if the patient is given steroids too soon, before the storm sets in, it may act more to suppress the immune system.

But there is also front line reports that use of steroids can help when this happens. So its not treating the virus, but the side effect.

Understanding the mechanisms also helps with interpreting the data. Trust the experts and follow their lead.

[BunBun]

Regarding the TB vaccine I believe there is definitely some truth in it.  Here in South Africa most people are vaccinated against TB and looking at the cases today, we are 6th highest in the world for the number of infected people 324,221 but have only had 4,669 die.  I am not minimising the deaths but our infection rate has been higher than the UK as they have had 292,552 but 45,119 deaths.

[marvin4242]

More encouraging results, although preliminary and not yet reviewed. But it shows that 90% of people show neutralizing anti-bodies 3 months after infection, which is a good indicator for immunity. This would apply for antibody testing and for vaccines (assuming people actually get vaccinated).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1

“Here we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust IgG antibody responses against the viral spike protein, based on a dataset of 19,860 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We also show that titers are stable for at least a period approximating three months, and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2. Our data suggests that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectible neutralizing antibody responses and that these titers are stable for at least the near-term future.”

[marvin4242]

And more interesting information coming out:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

“ A large new study from South Korea offers an answer: Children younger than 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do.

The findings suggest that as schools reopen, communities will see clusters of infection take root that include children of all ages, several experts cautioned.”

[marvin4242]

Another positive early trial for treatment, beta interferon in inhaler form shows 79% improvement of odds in progressing to ventilation or death. Caution is it’s an early trial, more data needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/trial-of-covid-19-coronavirus-drug-given-via-inhaler-sng001-very-promising-say-scientists

[xyzcf]

Thank you so much marvin for continuing to share with us the research that is coming out....needing this hope so much as time drags on.

[marvin4242]

Glad to continue a fact and science based discussion anytime. Here is one more bit of early good news:

"Oxford coronavirus vaccine triggers immune response, trial shows
Early results also indicate vaccine is safe, raising hopes it could help end pandemic"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-trial-shows

[Nerissa]

Glad to continue a fact and science based discussion anytime. Here is one more bit of early good news:

"Oxford coronavirus vaccine triggers immune response, trial shows
Early results also indicate vaccine is safe, raising hopes it could help end pandemic"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-trial-shows

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-oxford-vaccine-appears-to-have-surpassed-expectations

I’m taking part in this.  I was accepted and vaccinated a month ago .  It’s an interesting experience to be involved in.

[marvin4242]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-oxford-vaccine-appears-to-have-surpassed-expectations

I’m taking part in this.  I was accepted and vaccinated a month ago .  It’s an interesting experience to be involved in.

That is excellent news. Are you allowed to share any experiences or is it under NDA?

[Nerissa]

There’s no NDA as I don’t have any confidential info because it is all ‘blind’.   We are advised against putting it on social media in case of unwanted attention.  I may have had the ‘ChadOx vaccination or a meningitis/sepsis vacc, as that is the placebo.  I received one dose and another group received two.  I am part of a group of people aged between 56 and 69 because they rolled it out to an older age group a month ago.  I know a few younger people in the initial trial and they are all fine.

It’s all very carefully done:  information to tell us about possible risks; permission to exit the trial at any time without giving a reason.   A lot of hospital visits and blood tests; daily electronic communication to update them on my health; weekly covid tests; a social and exercise diary  to inform them of my contacts and length/kind of contact (eg ‘5 hours at less than 2 metres’ is one category.


I had an initial mild reaction of the kind to be expected after a vaccination.  Otherwise all normal.  I understand I will know in about a year the details of what I was given.

The problem is that there is not enough virus in the community for us to be reliably exposed so they have sent it to Brazil
And South Africa.  I have read they are considering vaccination and then infecting some healthy young people.  This is unusual, but the rationale is that the young are at limited risk; the results are promising and if infected, effective  treatment is now available.  I don’t know whether this will actually happen.

We’ll find out in time I guess.

[xyzcf]

I wanted to thank you Nerissa for volunteering to receive the vaccine in clinical trials.

This vaccine is sounding very good. I often tell people who are skeptical that we have made several vaccines in the past so there is good science regarding this...it's not just something new..and if I understand correctly, Cambridge had been working on corona virus vaccines for several years.

I will say though that you are very brave to be one of the test subjects!

[OldPilot]

I had an initial mild reaction of the kind to be expected after a vaccination.  Otherwise all normal.  I understand I will know in about a year the details of what I was given.

Well it seems that you must have gotten something if you had a reaction.
This is great anecdotal information, thank you for sharing.

[marvin4242]

I will say though that you are very brave to be one of the test subjects!

It does take a sense of volunteering, community and caring for others and bravery. Kind of the polar opposite of the narcissistic non mask wearing people who want their "freedoms."

But vaccines, even in trial, are relatively safe. Not that there can not be some adverse reaction, but we do not expose humans to dangerous test situations without precursor testing and/or a clear understanding of the procedure. For example if the vaccine is made of proteins from the surface of the virus (which I believe most are targeting specific ones) then it is really just using the same procedure we know well (safe) but using a different protein "signature" to teach the immune system. The overall reactions should be very much in line with other similar vaccines. Question is are we teaching the right signature and will immune system then respond rapidly to the real virus.

And mild reactions are actually normal, this is part of the light immune reaction that some subjects have. In fact in some vaccines having no reaction may be an indication that there was no immune response (but not always).

[Milly]

Fascinating stuff. Incredible really.

Here in Italy, we have been 'free' since May 18th, so over 2 months. We are still obligated to wear masks indoors in public places, but since the beginning of July, it's no longer illegal not to wear a mask outdoors, although most people still wear a mask outside, especially in busy streets. Restaurants and stores can scan you to take your temperature, and you must use antibacterial gel before entering. Gel must be provided by all stores, restaurants, gas stations, etc. It seems to be working quite well so far. Our numbers are pretty good. We've had a slight increase just lately due to foreigners entering the country (15 out of 17 cases in Tuscany are foreigners) . We are getting some northern European tourists, but we were also allowing flights from the middle east and other places. They are now on hold.

I'm only a lay person, but my impression is that we are much better equipped now if we are to have an outbreak, than we were the first time. We have more hospital beds, and we have some treatments that help. A vaccination is the best possible solution, but the positive trials on drugs such as this steroid (apologies to the scientists out there for not knowing the correct term) are going to be a huge help, too.

From those I've known who've had this virus without serious consequences, it is a very nasty flu. It's not your regular flu. I think the secret is being able to monitor those who are very sick in a hospital environment as soon as possible. I heard on the news tonight here, that they are seeking more doctors.

[Nerissa]

if I understand correctly, Cambridge had been working on corona virus vaccines for several years

.

Yes, XYCZF, specifically MERS, I think, which is also a coronavirus, so much initial work was already completed.

I don’t Think I am  brave because, as Marvin said, they don’t just administer trials on people without a vast amount of information about safety.

 I suppose the nuances of science are complicated.  They are rarely ‘sure’, but fairly sure; rarely ‘safe’ but ‘safer’.  Things happen ‘rarely’ rather than ‘never’.  I think this often confuses us when the reality is that we haven’t learned enough about science, and the complexities feel too onerous to read in articles which try to communicate science to a lay public.  The  headlines creating fear are more attention grabbing.

[OldPilot]

From those I've known who've had this virus without serious consequences, it is a very nasty flu. It's not your regular flu.

I agree and since I have had it now since May 4,
I am wondering if I will ever get rid of all the symptoms.

[xyzcf]

I agree and since I have had it now since May 4,
I am wondering if I will ever get rid of all the symptoms.

I am so sorry OP. I see stories of several people whose symptoms stay longer than what is "expected". I pray that you will recover completely very soon.

I am thinking about other infectious diseases that sometimes linger, mononucleosis comes to mind as one that can take several weeks before the person feels normal. Yet in others, it clears more quickly. Each person's body responds differently, not only to COVID.

Vaccine preventable diseases like chickenpox and measles do not usually cause any long term harm, but in some individuals, there are long term effects and even deaths which is why it is so important to get vaccinated. Varicella which causes chichenpox remains in our bodies and can later cause shingles. Tuberculosis is another that can remain dormant and never cause any symptoms but may become active when a person is immunocompromised such as if they develop cancer or are started on some drugs which suppress the immune system.

Perhaps this is the case in people who are testing positive for COVID but who never develop symptoms.

I write about this, because COVID seems to be acting like other viruses do which may allow science to figure out how to treat it. There are "patterns" but the viruses and the body are very complicated.

Until an effective and safe vaccine is available, wear a mask, wash your hands and stay as much as possible away from other people.

I feel "better" these days when I have to go grocery shopping because masks are now mandatory, yet I still see people wearing them around their necks once they are in the store...they just refuse to get it.

OP, let us know how you are doing ok?

[OldPilot]

I am thinking about other infectious diseases that sometimes linger, mononucleosis comes to mind as one that can take several weeks before the person feels normal. Yet in others, it clears more quickly. Each person's body responds differently, not only to COVID.

I am thinking Lymes Disease which always stays in  your body,
or herpes, same thing, those can be triggered by something happening.
I believe its chickenpox that can give you shingles.

So its not exactly any different with this disease and  I am lucky that my symptoms are actually mild,
just not going away.

[marvin4242]

I am thinking Lymes Disease which always stays in  your body,
or herpes, same thing, those can be triggered by something happening.
I believe its chickenpox that can give you shingles.

So its not exactly any different with this disease and  I am lucky that my symptoms are actually mild,
just not going away.

I am so sorry it is lingering, and it can't be pleasant. Is your medical team giving you any plans, ideas, approaches on what they are going to do to resolve?

[OldPilot]

I am so sorry it is lingering, and it can't be pleasant. Is your medical team giving you any plans, ideas, approaches on what they are going to do to resolve?

NO - they give me - The gift of TIME as a cure.

[marvin4242]

I am so sorry it is lingering, and it can't be pleasant. Is your medical team giving you any plans, ideas, approaches on what they are going to do to resolve?

NO - they give me - The gift of TIME as a cure.

Aaaarrrrggggg! Hopefully as we learn more and more they will offer SOMETHING concrete rather than wait and see.

edit: I am sure you are already very well aware of a lot of this because you are unfortunately living it, but others may find this illuminating.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

[OldPilot]

Yes - I joined the facebook group mentioned in the article about 2-3 weeks ago.

It does help to talk to many people going through this.

The group has just under 12k members in a very short time.

[OffRoad]

I am so sorry it is lingering, and it can't be pleasant. Is your medical team giving you any plans, ideas, approaches on what they are going to do to resolve?

NO - they give me - The gift of TIME as a cure.

Sadly, when Whooping Cough (pertussis) came back around several years back and they discovered the vaccines we had as children didn't  last forever and I ended up with it, TIME was the only answer unless the Whooping cough caused another side effect (infection, bronchitis, athsma, etc) The hard part was drawing that line where it was no longer Whooping Cough, but now the results of the Whooping Cough that was the problem. I coughed for months, but the last two months were not Whooping Cough. It was bronchitis from the leftover inflammation, according to the four doctors I saw.

I would venture Covid might be similar. Your body still has to heal from any damage done, even though what caused the damage is gone.

Take care, OP.

[Treasur]

Many years ago i suffered from an auto-immune disorder with lots of odd symptoms that the doctors never really pinned down to a diagnosis. It took me a few years, bit by bit, to recover. Someone introduced me to the Spoons Theory....https://www.healthline.com/health/spoon-theory-chronic-illness-explained-like-never-before#1.....which I found incredibly useful both as a way to manage my own limited bucket and to explain it to others.

[marvin4242]

Here is a great resource that tracks all the vaccines under development and where they are in the process. The Oxford vaccine (UK) and the Wuhan Institute (China) are the furthest along in their process. Hopefully if either proves effective they will be shared with everyone.

https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org

[marvin4242]

Another interesting find, researchers have identified a defect in a gene that seems to be one cause of why some young people are severely effected by Covid. The gene seems to impact the ability of the immune system to identify and fight the virus. This may lead to treatment options. Also gives insight into why a minority of younger people are more at risk.

This kind of work is possible because of our advances in gene sequencing.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768926

[xyzcf]

I like this chart from the Canadian Government re assessing one's risk depending upon an activity. It's not anything new but I think "awareness" continues to be important as we wait for a vaccine.

Lately, people have invited me to attend a few "gatherings", outdoors (for the only time I go indoors is to the grocery store or medical apts) but  although it all sounds good and safe, I know that it is hard to remain distant from people when you are in a group.

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/publications/diseases-conditions/covid-19-going-out-safely/cov19-gt-eng.pdf

I also found this article thought provoking, sometimes we think, oh just this one time won't make a difference.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/masks-stop-coronavirus-getting-aids-showed-me-stupidity-not-wearing-ncna1234878

My goal, stay "protected" as much as possible until a vaccine is available.

I also though Dr Fauci's responses worth considering. He would not at this time fly or eat indoors at a restaurant. he acknowledges that at age 79, he is in a high risk category.....and asks younger folks not to gather together in larger groups/parties/bars etc.

[marvin4242]

Thanks xyzcf both great articles. Really liked the risk chart. I for one avoid most medium risk activities although I’m not in high risk group.

Here is one that is a good analysis of where the US is, some information about what approaches are used based on how widespread the virus is. And overall a good read on how the US has failed badly, where we are and how public health experts view all of this. Long read but worthwhile.

One paragraph in particular gave me hope:

“Images of Americans disregarding social distancing requirements have become a daily news staple. But the pictures are deceptive: Americans are more accepting of social distancing than the media sometimes portrays, said Beth Redbird, a Northwestern University sociologist who since March has conducted regular surveys of 8,000 adults about the impact of the virus.

“About 70 percent of Americans report using all forms of it,” she said. “And when we give them adjective choices, they describe people who won’t distance as mean, selfish or unintelligent, not as generous, open-minded or patriotic.”“

Where I live mask compliance is very high, but I only have to go 30 miles to am adjacent state where more than 1/2 the people don’t wear masks in stores and openly defy guidelines as a statement.

A Viral Epidemic Splintering Into Deadly Pieces
There’s not just one coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Now there are many, each requiring its own mix of solutions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/health/coronavirus-future-america.html

[marvin4242]

OP: Its quite long I will try to hit the highlights.

"Once again, the coronavirus is ascendant. As infections mount across the country, it is dawning on Americans that the epidemic is now unstoppable, and that no corner of the nation will be left untouched."

"Each state, each city has its own crisis driven by its own risk factors: vacation crowds in one, bars reopened too soon in another, a revolt against masks in a third.

“We are in a worse place than we were in March,” when the virus coursed through New York, said Dr. Leana S. Wen, a former Baltimore health commissioner. “Back then we had one epicenter. Now we have lots.”"

"In most states, contact tracing is now moot — there are simply too many cases to track. "

"Overall, the scientists conveyed a pervasive sense of sadness and exhaustion. Where once there was defiance, and then a growing sense of dread, now there seems to be sorrow and frustration, a feeling that so many funerals never had to happen and that nothing is going well. The United States is a wounded giant, while much of Europe, which was hit first, is recovering and reopening — although not to us."

"Most of the virus’s victims are elderly, but it has not spared young adults, especially those with obesity, high blood pressure or diabetes. Adults aged 18 to 49 now account for more hospitalized cases than people aged 50 to 64 or those 65 and older.

Children are usually not harmed by the virus, although clinicians were dismayed to discover a few who were struck by a rare but dangerous inflammatory version. Young children appear to transmit the virus less often than teenagers, which may affect how schools can be opened.

Among adults, a very different picture has emerged. Growing evidence suggests that perhaps 10 percent of the infected account for 80 percent of new transmissions. Unpredictable superspreading events in nursing homes, meatpacking plants, churches, prisons and bars are major drivers of the epidemic."

"Some experts, like Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, argue that only a nationwide lockdown can completely contain the virus now. Other researchers think that is politically impossible, but emphasize that localities must be free to act quickly and enforce strong measures with support from their state capitols.

Danielle Allen, the director of Harvard University’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, which has issued pandemic response plans, said that finding less than one case per 100,000 people means a community should continue testing, contact tracing and isolating cases — with financial support for those who need it.

The second-largest teachers’ union in the U.S. said it would support members who strike if schools don’t take steps to reopen safely.
A new U.S. federal report urged 21 “red zone” states to impose more restrictions.
The number of known infections among U.S. state prison inmates and officers has surged by 45 percent since July 1, to more than 80,000.
Up to 25 cases per 100,000 requires greater restrictions, like closing bars and limiting gatherings. Above that number, authorities should issue stay-at-home orders, she said."

"Testing must be free in places where people are poor or uninsured, such as public housing projects, Native American reservations and churches and grocery stores in impoverished neighborhoods.

None of this will be possible unless the nation’s capacity for testing, a continuing disaster, is greatly expanded. By the end of summer, the administration hopes to start using “pooling,” in which tests are combined in batches to speed up the process."

Sorry I tried but this is highlights just from the first 1/3. I think there is a certain number of free reads per month with NYT.

[OldPilot]

A Viral Epidemic Splintering Into Deadly Pieces
There’s not just one coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Now there are many, each requiring its own mix of solutions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/health/coronavirus-future-america.html

Thanks xyzcf for sending me the article.
It was good but the headline kind of misled me,
I thought they were saying their was actually different versions of the virus going around,
like a mutated thing.
But that is not what they were saying.


Edit - thanks Marvin for that.

[Thunder]

I thought the same thing, OP.

Thank you Marvin, very helpful.

[marvin4242]

OP: sorry I didn't realize I could attach a PDF in PM here, my bad!

[marvin4242]

An interesting study in a camp In Georgia where 2/3 of the students and staff tested positive after reopening. Median age of kids was 12, which may indicate even younger kids can transmit the virus even if they are not getting sick. There are caveats as this is one location in Georgia where the virus was already spiking, and the data is incomplete in that they did not have full tracing and did not have full data tracking how well social distancing and mask rules were adhered to. Still points to caution about reopening schools, specially in areas where the virus is already spiking.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/31/georgia-children-covid-outbreak/

[xyzcf]

Thanks for the article marvin.

I chatted on my deck yesterday with a 69 year old substitute teacher who "believes" that Trump is right about opening the schools because "children don't transmit the virus" and don't really get "sick" from it...tell that to parents of children who have died from COVID or teachers who have contracted the disease.

She feels strongly that children need to go back to school for "socialization" and "mental health issues" and I mentioned that there is an economic reason as well, parents can't work if they don't have "daycare".

Are those reasons enough to risk the lives of students and staff?

A vaccine will be available. To me, that is the only sane way to reopen.

I told her, if my daughter was school age, I would not be sending her to school.

What totally freaks me out, this women is 69 years old and she is going to go back to working as a substitute teacher.

What is amazing to me, is the lack of "belief" in what science is telling us and the acceptance of information from someone who has promoted information that is false several times.....this denial of new information which is continuously being generated from the data and will continue to change as more is found out, this disregarding new information about a virus that is still a mystery in some ways as to how it causes disease, is what is causing the dangerously high number of cases in the US.

It doe not have to be this way. 

[marvin4242]

It does really confound me too. Generally I do not understand why people reject expertise, information and hard earned knowledge and simply embrace random and unsubstantiated beliefs when dealing with public health or medicine. What humanity has learned and where we are now, even compared to 20 years ago, is simply mind boggling. We are sequencing genes of a new virus, we have developed novel mRNA vaccines and have inserted the spike protein into other agents to create vaccines, we can do large scale controlled studies and have rapidly discovered SO MUCH about this new virus (although it has sadly cost a lot of lives and lot of disruption).

But people still choose to reject all this and either listen to completely unqualified people spouting nonsense (whether its leaders, talk show hosts, or doctors who think diseases are caused by demons, a throwback to what century exactly?). And this at the risk to their own well being (like the substitute teacher) or to risk to others (like young people who think because they or ok its just fine to get sick or people who don't actually understand what "freedoms" the constitution is referring to). Sad part is if people simply listened to experts, followed guidelines, and used facts and science this disease would be under control and we all would have resumed a great deal of our lives, including resuming most economic activity. But instead by ignoring this we are simply making everything so much worse. Compare Germany to US and it tells you everything you need to know.

In the age of knowledge, reason, information and technology people choose to embrace the dark ages.

[OldPilot]

I hear you but on the flip side I personally know quite a few people that have committed suicide from being quarantined.

So what about them?

[marvin4242]

I hear you but on the flip side I personally know quite a few people that have committed suicide from being quarantined.

So what about them?

That is a tragedy, and is part of the problem. Mental health, financial well being, kids socializing. These are all important. I am in no way dismissing that. But I guess I don't understand how it is the "flip side." It is the same to me. If people followed expert advised, guidelines and we had a coordinated response these problems would also be solved. People in Europe already have more resumption of activity, I know elder people in UK who are now meeting in open spaces in gardens and are no longer as isolated. Even in Italy which started with a badly handled response and lot of deaths they are actually managing to resume some normalcy while maintaining control over the disease.

We are actually making these problems worse by ignoring knowledge and facts.

Am I missing your point?

[xyzcf]

I hear you but on the flip side I personally know quite a few people that have committed suicide from being quarantined.

I would like to know statistically what "quite a few people" is compared to the 150,000 plus deaths from COVID.

The difference?

Someone who commits suicide, takes their own life. It is a decision. They are not killing someone else by transmitting the virus.

I am not at all saying that the mental health consequences are not enormous..they are. Personally, I went for 5 therapy sessions because of difficulties I was facing from being totally alone...$165.00 per session but money well spent.

How many people can afford that? It's not covered by my insurance.

How many people have a therapist they can call up and say "I need help"?

How many people recognize or are willing to obtain help from a mental health provider?

The argument that we need to reopen because several people are committing suicide is not helpful.

There will be more suicides after the recents cuts in unemployment benefits.

I wonder what the suicide rates are in countries that provide social programs for all their people are compared to the US?

I wonder what the suicide rates are for people with COVID who are experiencing months of symptoms with no end in sight?

[Acorn]

From American Psychological Association on Covid 19 and suicide:

“But it will be a while before COVID-19’s actual impact on the nation’s suicide rate is known, says psychologist Jill Harkavy-Friedman, PhD, vice president of research at the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention. “We’re two years away from having data,” she says. And it’s not a given that the pandemic will cause suicide rates to increase, emphasizes Harkavy-Friedman, who is also an associate professor of clinical psychology, in psychiatry, at Columbia University.
“One event can bring stress, but it’s not going to make someone suicidal out of the blue,” she says, explaining that it is typically a combination of biological, psychological, environmental and other factors that renders people vulnerable to suicide.”

To point at quarantine as the sole reason for suicide is unhelpful and, I am sorry to say, a bit simplistic.

The sooner people listen to sensible advices of the experts which are based on good quality research (not anecdotes and conspiracy theories), the sooner we should be able to resume more or less normal life.   That would help the emotionally vulnerable who may be at risk for self harming.

[OldPilot]

Am I missing your point?

I dont think so

[OffRoad]

(like young people who think because they or ok its just fine to get sick or people who don't actually understand what "freedoms" the constitution is referring to).

The things most people remember from the Declaration of Independence also shape their thoughts on freedom. Who really understands what freedom "means" in the context of documents? Like everything, words are open to interpretation.

A few parts from the Declaration of Independence that are pretty broad, but people hold onto:
"that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
 
"organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness." 

"and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. "

Again, I adhere to social distancing as a consideration to others. If the door sign says "No shirt, no shoes no enter", thems the rules for that store. Same for mask. The people who walk in without a mask don't care about anyone else except their own selfish entitled selves. MLCERS in the making or actuality. Trying to make sense of it is , as UM always says, like trying to taste green with your elbow. If anyone should understand we don't get to control what other people do, it's people who had to deal with an MLCER.  So I rarely go out. If I do, I am aware of who is around me and if they are following social distancing recommendations.  If they aren't,  I avoid them or leave. As is my right. The ones I feel bad for are the people who are working and can't leave, so their choice is confrontation or submittal. In theory, though, they have the right to get another job or file a complaint that they don't feel safe at their job.

Freedom has a lot of layers and meanings to different people. I may not understand someone else's point of view, but I don't get to control it, so it's on me to protect myself, and my loved ones if I can and if I can't  for them to protect themselves.

[marvin4242]

Offroad: all good points. And we have a lot of precedent and analysis and define the bounds of freedom. For example I am not allowed to walk down the street naked, although technically it wont “hurt” anyone. I am not allowed to urinate or defecate in public for public health reasons, as it will potentially hurt others. So the entire mask argument for those who claim freedom has no legal, ethical nor social basis. It is closes to conspiracy theory thinking. If we had said you are no longer allowed to protest to redress your grievances we know these rights are spelled out and they are understood. But even then we are allowed to place limits and restrictions on them for safety reasons.

So as others have said (and I get the sense you agree) its one thing if one chooses for oneself, but its different when it impacts others.

[marvin4242]

More interesting information, various studies of public transport in Europe shows it may be safer than we think, but assuming riders adhering to guidelines. Most of these studies are in Europe and Tokyo where they have been running aggressive contact tracing after reducing the base infection level, and none of the case clusters have traced back to use of public transport. Obviously we are nowhere near that base level and I have not yet seen any reports of fully functioning contact tracing in any part of the country, as it appears it has to be run at the state level.

“ In countries where the pandemic has ebbed, ridership has rebounded in far greater numbers than in New York City — yet there have been no notable superspreader events linked to mass transit, according to a survey of transportation agencies conducted by The New York Times.

Those findings could be evidence that subways, commuter railways and buses may not be a significant source of transmission, as long as riders wear masks and train cars or buses never become as intensely crowded as they did in pre-pandemic rush hours.”

“ In Paris, public health authorities conducting contact tracing found that none of the 386 infection clusters identified between early May and mid-July were linked to the city’s public transportation.

A study of coronavirus clusters in April and May in Austria did not tie any to public transit. And in Tokyo, where public health authorities have aggressively traced virus clusters, none have been linked to the city’s famously crowded rail lines.”

“ Among the range of urban activities, the experts say, riding the subway is probably riskier than walking outdoors but safer than indoor dining.
The low infection rates on some public transportation systems can be attributed, in part, to measures transit agencies have adopted, including mandating face masks; disinfecting trains and buses; and ramping up service and asking businesses to stagger work hours to reduce rush-hour crowding.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/nyregion/nyc-subway-coronavirus-safety.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[OldPilot]

Here is an article about our front line defenders.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007097093/coronavirus-st-johns-hospital-far-rockaway.html?fbclid=IwAR2gVT5zMo4nqMwsypRPuR5P5fylMUfxTZESNEy05h2k_28Ykkvx7ZsHHVI

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

Very interesting comments in regards to suicide and covid. Xyzcf- I agree completely that more people need access to therapy and if we cut the defense budget by 50,000,000,000. We could afford every man, woman, and child an hour of therapy at $150.00 an hour. Since a small amount of people need this we could afford therapy for everyone. That is only a 6.9% cut to the budget and would still leave the US with the largest military budget in the world. Three times over.

Suicide rate has been increasing since 2000. Despite all the connections with phones and the internet, we are actually more disconnected than ever before. This is especially in regards to our young people. Another interesting note is that suicides by middle aged white men is the highest rate in our country. Overall, white males counted for 69.67% of all suicides. These statistics were before covid.

Suicide is separate from covid and was going to increase regardless of covid. So I don't think you can compare the two until after the crisis is past and see if the rate of increase was faster during the time of covid as compared to the rate prior to covid.

I know it is a dark subject  but that is why many of us push counseling for all LBSers as a means to grow and cope with their socioemotional health during the crisis.

(((((Ready)))))

[marvin4242]

Two new studies seem to point to children under 14 being less susceptible to getting Covid-19, but being almost twice as virulent an agent of spread of the disease. If this holds up then it would really put a brake on any country trying to reopen schools quickly.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/#612a8b2019fd

“ The researchers found that although young children had a somewhat lower risk of infection than adults and were less likely to become ill, children age 14 and younger transmit the virus more efficiently to other children and adults than adults themselves. Their risk of transmitting Covid-19 was 22.4 percent—more than twice that of adults aged 30 to 49, whose rate of contagiousness was about 11 percent. “Although childhood contacts were less likely to become cases,” they wrote, “children were more likely to infect household members.””

[xyzcf]

Many people are concerned about the safety of a potential COVID vaccine and how quickly it is being made. I found this short video from the CBC helpful in explaining how it is possible to produce a safe vaccine in a shorter period of time than what it would normally take.

How COVID-19 vaccines are being created quickly without sacrificing safety

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1771808835773

[Treasur]

An interesting if not very cheerful article https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5 that seems to suggest the likeliehood that Covid will be part of our lives for quite a few years.

Tbh reading it didn't surprise me. The two big 'killer app' issues that I think we just don't know yet is how long any vaccine immunity might last and how we set up more reliable testing/tracing processes that allow parts of our individual countries to suppress transmission spikes before they get too big to do that without locking down a wider population. Here in the UK, I'm pretty confident that we haven't yet got the ability to do the latter as a matter of course and reading between the political lines, I think our government is being told by those who know better than me that a serious second wave (and potentially a second lockdown) is looking eminently possible in the autumn.

It occurred to me actually, reading the article, that how one reacts to it might not be unlike the most blunt likely scenarios that MLC vets might unfurl for an LBS newbie. We usually don't bc it beats people to their knees when they are already frightened.....they don't want to hear it. I didn't want to hear it either. But truthfully, the pattern suggests that most LBS would be more honestly served by accepting a scenario that says their MLC spouse will almost certainly have at least one ow/om, will trash their joint finances, be impossible to communicate with rationally, be a lousy self-centred parent, that most LBS will end up separated or divorced and will probably not see their spouse start acting like a sane decent adult for at least seven years......so now, what does Standing look like to you and do you want to do that?  Not a nice message is it? Not easy to give or hear. But, based on the patterns we see here, probably statistically the most likely scenario.....

I wonder if the issue is much the same with the virus.
If you knew that most probably we were all going to be living with a series of trial and error virus ups and downs for say the next 3-5 years.....along with the unpredictable ways in which society might adapt to that....would you do anything differently now in how you live your life?

[marvin4242]

An interesting study about efficacy of masks, spoilers:

N95, surgical, poly/cotton, and multi layer cotton masks work well, while knitted, bandana, fleece are the worse (with fleece actually being worse than wearing no mask).

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083

[xyzcf]

40% of people with coronavirus have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic?

https://www.chron.com/news/article/40-of-people-with-coronavirus-have-no-symptoms-15469295.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Desktop)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

This was reported in The Washington post but I do not have access to it there...what was interesting to me is the possible connection between other vaccines that people had been given and the reduction in infections.

 "Seven types of vaccines given one, two or five years in the past were associated with having a lower rate of infection with the new coronavirus. Two vaccines in particular seemed to show stronger links: People who got a pneumonia vaccine in the recent past appeared to have a 28% reduction in coronavirus risk. Those who got polio vaccines had a 43% reduction in risk."

By chance, I just had a pneumococcal vaccine 2 weeks ago.

There has also been information about BCG vaccine which  also received as a child.

They are discovering more information everyday. The more we can contain the virus and stay safe, science will figure it out so we can get out of this pandemic and back to living.

[xyzcf]

I just came back from grocery shopping where masks are mandatory but 5 customers had no mask on, several are wearing them below their nose and one man had a child’s cone shaped birthday hat covering his nose..I kid you not! The manager did come on expressing that everyone in the store over the age of 10 had to have a mask and they would gladly provide one if you “forgot”..he stressed that the safety of his staff who have been in the store all day as well as the safety of customers..but people are either too stupid to get it after 6 months or too selfish..I suspect the latter.

[Ready2Transform]

Had a Walmart trip this afternoon xyz, and it was my first time out that I've seen some of the "anti-maskers". One guy made sure we noticed him, and was wearing some sort of "freedom" shirt. Another was a group of teenage boys on phones who kept purposely squeezing between people to be 'funny'. Disheartening. I saw some of the "under the nose" wearers too, but they seem more clueless than cruel.

The boys really bothered me because they were more privileged kids who have likely been on vacations out of town, and I don't like that near my dad, who has copd, and takes all of the precautions. It's sad how people just don't seem to care.

[xyzcf]

It's really stressful isn't it? You don't dare say anything because you may put yourself in danger if you do.

Today the announcement was made that Canada has extended the border closing until Sept 21 and I am sure that will continue to be extended so I am not going to be able to go home anytime soon.

It does not have to be like this!

[MyBrainIsBroken]

..but people are either too stupid to get it after 6 months or too selfish..I suspect the latter.

Sadly, I wouldn't be too quick to discount the former. Perhaps we might call them misinformed or ignorant instead of stupid.

It does not have to be like this!

No, it doesn't and it shouldn't be like this. IMO, refusing to follow public health requirements is a form of assault. It potentially puts the people around you in danger. Public health laws also violate people's "rights" by not allowing them to defecate in public but that law doesn't seem to be too controversial.

I wear N95 masks that I recycle after wearing them on EMS calls. I wear a mask to protect the people around me. I wear an N95 mask to protect me from the people around me, especially from those who refuse to wear a mask and those who refuse to wear them correctly.

[marvin4242]

It is a form of willful ignorance combined with narcissism wrapped around a complete lack of understand of “freedom.”

I am lucky that in my local area they are the exceptions, and that Walmart and many major stores here actually have someone check and not allow those idiots (yes I said it) to come inside.

I even feel bad when my bank forced me to go to branch for something I should have been able to do online, not for me, but for the branch employees. But they were fully enforcing the distance and the masks.

[Mitzpah]

On mask wearing, I am sure no one is very comfortable wearing a mask. I personally find it restricting and irritating. However, I wear a mask for other people, I wear a mask because it is the least I can do, I wear a mask because if I don't, I will be fined, my company will be fined.

There are very good reasons to wear a mask, there is a study that says it reduces the viral load if contaminated, it protects the other person if you have the disease and you are assymptomatic.

Our supermarkets are very strict and most of them test your temperature as you come in, they also insist on wiping down the handles of your shopping cart and dousing your hands with sanitizer!

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Mitzpah, I am pleased to hear that the stores are very strict where you live. I hope that will help to keep you safe. I worry about you down there when I read the news reports. 

Marvin, our Walmart also requires masks for entry so a lot of people wear their masks until they get inside, then they either slide them down or remove them. We're very fortunate to be in a rural area where community spread is currently very low.

[marvin4242]

MBIB: actually here I see very high compliance even inside, and when we have pointed out a few people or staff who don’t comply I almost always get immediate action from managers. At least here most places do take it seriously. I do know the minute I hit PA and went into a store 1/2 the people were not complying on purpose. And this was in a rural area. The low spread rate in rural areas is not holding in areas that are mask resistant. That was only true in the early days where rural areas thought they were somehow ‘immune.” The hotspots are now just as bad in rural areas.

The willingness to comply is very regional.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

The willingness to comply is very regional.

That's so sad. I think back to the WWII Generation. They grew up poor in the Great Depression. As my aunt would say, "We didn't know how poor we were because everyone was poor. Then WWII struck. I had one uncle on my mom's side who died for our country. He didn't have to go as he was the only son to carry on the family name. No draft for him, he volunteered. My uncle's brother was stationed on the Philippines when Japan took the island. He stayed behind so MacArthur could leave. He spent the entire war as a POW. Beaten and severely starved. He somehow survived. This generation came back only to invest their tax dollars to build colleges for their kids. While the men fought, the ladies stayed and worked the factories. They went without meat and rationed gas.

Now we can't even unite to put on a face covering to save our own.

I really miss the Great Generation.

((((Ready))))

[xyzcf]

Now we can't even unite to put on a face covering to save our own.

I don't understand why it's so hard...you don't have to wear a mask at home or outside but when you step inside a public place it is the law. It stresses me out so much to go buy groceries but I have tried ordering and don't get the things I need.

Our King Sooper's is not cleaning the shopping carts anymore. There are wipes you can use. I bring my own disinfectant spray.

[marvin4242]

A long but great read on various testing methods, strengths and shortcoming, why test results are taking so long in the US, how having tests that are so delayed are worthless and information about new tests on the horizon that can be run at home. Also it discusses various pooling and group testing strategies that if deployed would allow daily testing at nursing home for staff and testing at classroom level allowing a class to be sent home on a positive as a group while maintaining privacy.

My personal conclusions: first the US has failed because there has been no centralized strategy. As article explains free market is not capable of solving these kinds of challenges as cost is too high without a centralized approach. Second is how much innovation and smarts is being applied in the US at the research and corporate level, but it is again hampered by a intelligent central approach (for example reducing required accuracy rates for rapid tests). Third is there are a lot of testing approaches that are scaling up that can maybe reverse our biggest error: blinding ourselves by not supporting then intentionally hampering testing. These solutions are varied and can be run at medical facilities, or even workplaces daily. If we had this capability we could resume a much more normal life while effectively containing the virus.

I guess my takeaway is things are about to improve over the next six months due to testing and vaccines, in spite of our national level failures. It simply blows my mind on why we think that failing to rise to this challenge was ok. One example: declaring a war time level emergency effort would have eliminated all the reagent shortages as there are resources to make them but no supply chains. So private companies were unable or unwilling to take that on without a national declaration.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/how-to-test-every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/?utm_source=digg

[xyzcf]

first the US has failed because there has been no centralized strategy

I hear many people say "I don't want the government "controlling" my health care and then the government taking away the collection of data from CDC and transferring it to the White House:

“Historically, C.D.C. has been the place where public health data has been sent, and this raises questions about not just access for researchers but access for reporters, access for the public to try to better understand what is happening with the outbreak," said Jen Kates, the director of global health and H.I.V. policy with the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

The CDC is the gold standard worldwide for infectious diseases. They have the expertise ....and are consulted worldwide for their assistance in controlling infectious diseases.

For me, this was purely a political move and I suspect a way to mislead the public of the gravity of the situation by "hiding" the numbers.

I sit here thinking about the number of people who have died needlessly and continue to die needlessly, and watch as other countries successfully implement tried and true public health measures to contain the virus.

The governor of Colorado has negotiated with a private lab and set up testing facilities so that results are available in 48 hours..I spoke to some nursing colleagues yesterday in Canada, test results there are available in 24 hours. In the US, people are waiting 14 days and more....

Canada does have a centralized system to deal with issues relating to public health and it works. It worked during SARS and it is working now. The leaders accept what the experts advise, and the whole country is on one page and it works.

[trusting]

I have wondered about the variance in testing results and how long it takes.  My son got a test through Kaiser and had the results in less than 24 hours.  If he had gone to one of the "protest" testing sites (he had gone to a protest),  it would have taken a few days.

[Thunder]

I know a few people who got tested in 2 different states (MN and Idaho) and got the results within 2/3 days.

Why is there such a difference between the states?  Funding??  Do some states have to send the tests out?

[marvin4242]

First because there is no federal response it is state by state, how much money, how seriously testing is taken. In fact sone stats have slowed down testing in purpose after the Presidents urging in order to make the numbers look better. Obviously this has tragic public health consequences and is purely political. It horrifies public health officials.

For example Maryland bought tons of tests in the early days from South Korea and used them because of lack of Federal response. Some states are cutting desks for testing, but we have created a nightmare scenario where states are competing with each other. We are doing this so badly.

As for vaccines two are in phase 3 and may be ready in 2-3 months. Early results are positive. Then it has to be mass produced and distributed. Here it will depend on each health care provider while in countries with national health there will be one single source and provided instantly for free.

 

[OldPilot]

Good News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0

for herd immunity.

[Milly]

Here, we must wear masks in the supermarkets. It's been like this since March. They won't let us in if we don't wear one. They will make us leave if we don't comply. When Covid rules came into place, the police enforced it by checking people, stopping cars, and by handing out stiff fines. It's a nuisance, it's a drag, but it works. At least that's how we feel about it.

And just the other day, discos were closed again, and masks must be worn in public again (had been stopped a couple of months ago) from 6pm to 6 am. This is because the contagion numbers have risen lately although deaths have not. We don't like it since as others have said, the masks are hot and itchy but they seem to work. In fact here, there are no covid clusters connected to public transport where you can not get on without a mask. That really helped us understand how effective this annoying method is.

[Mitzpah]

Good News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0

for herd immunity.

Excellent news and easy to understand!

[trusting]

Thanks for posting that video, OP. Definitely worth the watch.  I thought he did such a good job explaining the body's immune response in an easy-to-understand way.  And of course, the studies he referenced also give such hope.  I wish there was more information like this circulating in mainstream media.

How are you feeling, OP?  Are you still dealing with lasting effects from the illness?

[xyzcf]

I wish there was more information like this circulating in mainstream media.

I do think that information is out there, especially if you look at different news sources. I liked the video and the three studies all are saying the same thing, but Dr. Campbell does say that the studies have not been peer reviewed yet.

I am not surprised that there is a good immune response, that is true for many other infectious diseases.It does look good that a vaccine will also give a good immune response...yet the problem I'm afraid is going to be getting people to get the vaccine.

We have come a long way in understanding how to prevent transmission and decrease the spread of the virus as well as how to treat it. I would really like to see  better testing and contract tracing.....the numbers in Colorado have been pretty stable, 3 down to 2.71 since Aug 6 but in reality, this is a very short period of time and many things are still operating with limited numbers of people.

We do see that when social distancing measures are relaxed, that the numbers shoot up pretty quickly but that will also get better as more people develop immunity to it.

Here's more from The Chicago Tribune:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-covid-immunity-mild-infections-20200817-hvv4tiiu5feklclx47bc74el34-story.html?fbclid=IwAR3RumTzu6ladWzJB9-smBhYXU0DkKezvWuDjuW8vDsNUZv1N_nrPEfIzM0

[xyzcf]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/07/health/chronic-fatigue-syndrome-covid-19-survivors-wellness/?hpt=ob_blogfooterold

This talks about the long term effects for some who become infected with COVID. It suggests that it could be as high as 35% of people will go on to have some kind of chronic health issue.

I see people relaxing their protective measures. This has gone on for so long and we are tired by all the restrictions this has on our lives.

Please keep in mind that there is still a great deal that is not known about COVID even as science pushes forward with some good news as well.

[OldPilot]

Thanks for posting that video, OP. Definitely worth the watch.  I thought he did such a good job explaining the body's immune response in an easy-to-understand way.  And of course, the studies he referenced also give such hope.  I wish there was more information like this circulating in mainstream media.

How are you feeling, OP?  Are you still dealing with lasting effects from the illness?

I am pretty much fully recovered but my girl friend still has lasting effects.

She has covid-brain, and just lost her job yesterday, from the hospital that gave her covid.
We keep hoping that she will fully recover and I am still hopeful that she will get full brain function back.

It is only for maybe a minute at a time (for maybe 4-5 times a day)  but who would want a nurse to be taking care of you that couldn't think straight.

Thanks for asking hope all is well with you.

[Treasur]

Glad to hear you are feeling better, OP, bjtbsorry to hear that your girlfriend is still struggling.
What is 'Covid brain'? Like chemo brain? Problems with attention, memory etc?

[OldPilot]

Glad to hear you are feeling better, OP, bjtbsorry to hear that your girlfriend is still struggling.
What is 'Covid brain'? Like chemo brain? Problems with attention, memory etc?

Brain short circuits for periods of time.
Inability to think and for her do simple math (8x7) or think straight like early dementia or alzheimers.
It usually only lasts a few minutes but is quite frightening.

[Treasur]

Ah I see.....yes, I can imagine it is frightening and rather disheartening for her. Seems pretty common with a lot of auto-immune type illnesses, no idea why. When I experienced something similar years ago, I found the 'spoons theory' helpful and became a bit of a detective so I could learn if there was a pattern to it e.g. When I was physically tired or certain types of activities or time of day, numbers were a problem for me too, so I could build some alternative ways of doing things. Often with chronic illnesses we become our own best medics, I think, don't we? But I am so sorry and I hope that she starts to see progress soon.

[Milly]

Sorry to hear about your girlfriend, OP, and that she lost her job on top of it. How devastating. I hope that even if slowly, she recovers completely.

[xyzcf]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR0Qm1MLgiRbxrlzUGxyTOVlgMNT-G6arnFCOXYVJM3mSJ9Lw9kgcbb6r6k

 Another very good reason for wearing masks maybe? It certainly is interesting.

[Seahorse]

Interesting article xyzcf - Thanks for sharing.
To me, it makes sense.
Our rules in the US haven't "lightened up" as much as in the UK when it comes to mask wearing. 
Still required just about everywhere except the dentist and dine-in.

Everyone stay safe!  Wear your masks!

Sea

[marvin4242]

Thanks xyzcf interesting indeed if it holds up.

Seahorse I’m a little confused. Rules in UK have not been relaxed re face masks. In US it ranges from good to non existent depending on where you are, while in UK the rules are consistent with randomized test tracking and regional lockdowns. While in US we are near blind in widespread randomized testing and the quality of our scattershot data is considered poor by researchers as we have no standards across various sources, nor any consistency.

In fact there is escalating fines for violating rules starting at 100 pounds and doubling per repeat to a max of 3200 pounds, a significant disincentive. In US even in areas where mask rules exist there are no fines nor consequences and no legal enforcement. It’s left purely to business owners and workers. Wegmans, a well known local grocery store even confirmed to me that if a customer wears no mask they can shop. When I asked what if I take my mask right now they said that is fine.

[Seahorse]

Marvin -
I'm sorry that I was confusing in what I was trying to say.

In the US we're SUPPOSED to be social distancing, wearing masks everywhere except the dentist and when dining in, from what I have experienced in a few different states.  I didn't say that we were enforcing it, and again I have asked and was told that they have a "hands off" policy and are not allowed to ask a person to wear a mask, even though they have a sign stating at the entrance that it is a state law.  It's very frustrating.

I said what I said because the article states that masks (in UK) are not required to be worn:

Visitors to cinemas, eat-in restaurants, concert halls, museums, heritage sites, theatres, hairdressers, gyms, leisure centres, dentists and opticians, pubs and restaurants are not be required to wear face masks.

So, it appears that the US is holding stricter criteria - that doesn't necessarily mean that the criteria is being followed.

Does that make sense?

Sea

[marvin4242]

Yes thank you, makes perfect sense!

[marvin4242]

So a not so surprising study results but data is always better than opinion and guesses. I for one have no idea why these basic public health ideas and measure are in any way controversial.

“ COVID-19 Study Links Strict Social Distancing to Much Lower Chance of Infection”

https://healthcnd.com/covid-19-study-links-strict-social-distancing-to-much-lower-chance-of-infection/

[marvin4242]

Found this interesting plot of data comparing mortality from flu and pneumonia vs Covid-19. The spike of pneumonia that parallels Covid-19 is probably due to the fact that it is a common complication. So this is educational for those who do not believe this pandemic is more serious than a seasonal flu. Part of how much worse this is in the US has been because of our uncoordinated and ineffective response in containment, but it still shows that Covid is real issue and not a made up idea.

https://i.redd.it/yjvlz964ctl51.png

[OldPilot]

I am still dealing with post covid symptoms for my hero nurse.

She got covid on April 15 and is long over the worst of the symptoms but still can not think straight and has now lost her nursing job in the ER.

So we have found out that many people do not fully recover from this disease.

I am not sure that anything is happening to fix this situation and I wonder if their will be a cure.

[marvin4242]

OP: I really hope and believe there will be. There are more and more reports of long term effects, more and more understanding of them. And as we find these out treatments will become available. I hope its a case of so much being learned so fast, and that most of the initial focus was on the acute mortality. Now the focus has shifted more to the long term treatments.

I know a couple of other people who are still struggling with recurring or long term effects from Covid. I believe even some of the data from the vaccine trials may give information about how and why some side effects linger. And this should also help with longer term treatments.

This virus really seems to trigger the immune system in ways that are more challenging that other ones. Specially the common cold and flu. Yet another reason for everyone to take this seriously, and to follow guidelines and science.

But I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for you and people in the same boat.

[Treasur]

I hope this makes for useful reading, OP. https://www.healthrising.org/blog/2020/07/24/open-letter-covid-19-long-hauler-me-cfs/

As someone who years ago suffered a post-viral arthritis illness followed by ME symptoms, I found that most doctors were pretty rubbish bc the symptoms did not seem to fit their diagnostic framework or the bit of the body that was their specialism. So I needed to be my own advocate and build my own recovery plan. In my case, I think it took about three years of gradual improvement....yoga and fish oil and sleeping like a cat little and often lol were my secret powers...before I felt normal again. So there is hope and small pockets of post-covid support/research, but I am very sorry that your lady friend is suffering this.

[OldPilot]

Thank you both - yes a good article.

One bright spot is the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, which has opened a Center for Post-Covid Care.
The center is monitoring roughly 1,000 Covid-19 patients with initially mild to moderate cases.

She is already in this group and I hope it can do something but so far no.

[xyzcf]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

John Hopkins COVID 19 United States cases by county. You can zoom into different areas and see where the cases are higher than other states. Good tool .

[marvin4242]

Old Pilot: saw this in The Guardian this morning, there is no direct link, but more evidence that there is a lot of ongoing work now on the lingering effects of Covid-19. I am pretty sure this will not be a “forgotten” issue by any means.
——
More than half of patients and staff with Covid-19 monitored by an Irish hospital suffered persistent fatigue in the aftermath of the initial disease, according to a new study Friday highlighting the “significant burden” of lingering symptoms, AFP reports.

“Whilst the presenting features of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been well-characterised, the medium- and long-term consequences of infection remain unexplored,” said Liam Townsend, of St James’s Hospital and Trinity Translational Medicine Institute at Trinity College Dublin.

The study, which tracked 128 participants at St James’s Hospital, found that 52 percent reported persistent fatigue when they were assessed an average of 10 weeks after “clinical recovery” from infection, regardless of how serious their initial infection was.

The preliminary study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, included 71 people who had been admitted to hospital and 57 employees of the hospital who had mild illness. The average age was 50 and all participants had tested positive for Covid-19.

Researchers looked at a variety of potential factors, including the severity of the initial illness and pre-existing conditions, including depression.

They found that it made no difference whether a patient had been hospitalised or not. However, they did find that women, despite making up just over half of the participants (54%), accounted for two-thirds of those with persistent fatigue (67%).

Those with a previous history of anxiety or depression were also found to be more likely to have fatigue.

The authors said the findings showed that more work was needed to assess the impact of Covid-19 on patients in the longer term.

[xyzcf]

Dr Abdu Sharkaway


EXCELLENT article full of great reviews of evidence for different modes of Covid-19 transmission.
Instead of buying more Lysol, invest in an air purifier, comfortable 2-ply cotton masks and a fire pit or outer heater to socialize safely this winter.



https://elemental.medium.com/the-most-likely-way-youll-get-infected-with-covid-19-30430384e5a5

[OldPilot]

Old Pilot: saw this in The Guardian this morning, there is no direct link, but more evidence that there is a lot of ongoing work now on the lingering effects of Covid-19. I am pretty sure this will not be a “forgotten” issue by any means.
——
More than half of patients and staff with Covid-19 monitored by an Irish hospital suffered persistent fatigue in the aftermath of the initial disease, according to a new study Friday highlighting the “significant burden” of lingering symptoms, AFP reports.

“Whilst the presenting features of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been well-characterised, the medium- and long-term consequences of infection remain unexplored,” said Liam Townsend, of St James’s Hospital and Trinity Translational Medicine Institute at Trinity College Dublin.

The study, which tracked 128 participants at St James’s Hospital, found that 52 percent reported persistent fatigue when they were assessed an average of 10 weeks after “clinical recovery” from infection, regardless of how serious their initial infection was.

The preliminary study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, included 71 people who had been admitted to hospital and 57 employees of the hospital who had mild illness. The average age was 50 and all participants had tested positive for Covid-19.

Researchers looked at a variety of potential factors, including the severity of the initial illness and pre-existing conditions, including depression.

They found that it made no difference whether a patient had been hospitalised or not. However, they did find that women, despite making up just over half of the participants (54%), accounted for two-thirds of those with persistent fatigue (67%).

Those with a previous history of anxiety or depression were also found to be more likely to have fatigue.

The authors said the findings showed that more work was needed to assess the impact of Covid-19 on patients in the longer term.

Thanks



I just took this survey for people that have had covid.

Here is a link to the survey: https://uclcovid19.fra1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_b7QROw98zfEuf1b?unique_id=790ce0d769e5865733fe7b19486f27fd

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Great article xyz. One of the best I've read. I reposted it on FB. I hope my family and friends will read it. IMO, the most effective protection against this virus isn't face masks, vaccines, or social distancing. While those are all indisuptably important, I think the most effective protection is having access to high quality, accurate, trustworthy sources of information. Once you have that, everything else falls into place.

[xyzcf]

This is so cool!

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

and this also:

https://elemental.medium.com/50-experts-to-trust-in-a-pandemic-fe58932950e7

Wear your mask, social distance and stay outside!

[Thunder]

Thanks xyzcf!   

[marvin4242]

Here is a cool bit of research, a safe UVlight can be used to essentially create disinfection fields without harming people.

Study shows first proof that a safer UV light effectively kills virus causing COVID-19

https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en/news/60119

[marvin4242]

A general good "state of the nation" on what is current state of knowledge about the virus. Nothing earth shattering but a good catch up read:

"What we actually know about Covid-19"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/16/what-we-actually-know-about-covid-19

[marvin4242]

Okay if this holds up this is very cool, potentially amazingly useful, and a huge win for dog lovers everywhere!

"'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

[Treasur]

Well that would be fab 
Not at all surprised, of course, even as a cat-lover, that cats are not lining up for that kind of job 

[marvin4242]

And another amazing discovery that explains why some people without co-morbidity do badly while others are just fine. And if this holds this discovery will impact our ability to treat viruses of all kinds better, not just SARS. This also means vaccines will definitely help this population to avoid complications.

Genetic or immune defects may impair ability to fight Covid-19
Exclusive: significant proportion of severely ill people have inborn errors, study finds”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/genetic-immune-defects-may-impair-ability-fight-covid-19

[Milly]

Very interesting article, Marvin. I hope that this Covid research might turn up treatments for many other illnesses while it's at it. 

[marvin4242]

So here is more progress, WHO has approved and will be providing low cost and fast tests for low and middle income countries. There is nothing that says these same tests can't be used for rapid testing in other places (and I believe Germany and other European countries have put in orders already).

Although not as accurate they are pretty good and can be had for I believe around $5/test with subsidies including large orders from the Gates Foundation to assure cost/availability.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/28-09-2020-global-partnership-to-make-available-120-million-affordable-quality-covid-19-rapid-tests-for-low--and-middle-income-countries

[xyzcf]

I find Dr. Sharkawy to be the most level headed logical physician that I pay attention to even though I live in the US. I trust him. He knows his stuff. I am guilty of socializing with people who do not live in my home, outdoors, social distancing for sure but not always following wearing a mask. I keep telling myself that the numbers are good in Colorado, even though they have increased substantially in the last few weeks.I share because I care and people are still not getting it. I know we are fed up with the restrictions but I also know that we can prevent the spread of COVID...we can limit the deaths and long term sequela but we must be committed to what DR Sharkawy and other experts are saying.During SARS, contact tracing and quarantine of people who were in contact with a SARS case was really strict. I just don't see that happening and contract tracing and quarantine must be done to stop this.

Todays' post from Dr Abdu Sharkaway

Dr Sharkaway is a doctor and an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto in Canada.

Listen up Ontario & Quebec...and anywhere else that is evidently in the throes of the 2nd wave of Covid-19.  The graphic below says it all. Rate of new cases is accelerating MORE QUICKLY than in the first wave. It is NOT due to increased testing. It is proportionately higher despite more total tests.
This is the result of many factors including the following:
- a huge pool of susceptible persons who did the right thing in the spring, avoiding exposure and who have now apparently given up (age < 40 I'm talking to you)
- Re-established indoor business, schools, other public institutions without optimal testing & tracing infrastructure
- lack of vigilance with an assumption that the virus has somehow mutated & weaker, therefore not much of a threat anymore 🤦‍♂️
Hospitals and ICUs in many regions are ALREADY near or at capacity. Flu has not yet arrived. Other seasonal respiratory viruses have not yet arrived. When they do, we cannot afford to risk collapse of our health care system's capacity. It happened in Italy, NYC and Texas. It's not a veiled threat. We need to turn this around and NOW. We cannot allow more nursing home residents to die needlessly. We cannot allow more 45 year olds to suffer Covid related strokes and cardiac  complications. We cannot allow non-Covid related health issues to resurface with renewed intensity, canceling cancer surgeries, joint replacements and other important procedures. We cannot afford more economic fallout throughout our community. It will be worse than the first wave if we don't get real. NOW.
I'm going to make this easy to understand.  You decide how hard it is to execute:
1. STOP socializing with ANYONE not living with you. Cousins count. Neighbors count. Everybody with a different address counts. Bubbles mean next to nothing now. It's been a "bubble bath" for weeks. This is a purely artificial contruct now.
2. MASK 😷 EVERYWHERE you go INDOORS and cover your mouth AND nose. If businesses are not enforcing this, report them to local PHU. A visit from an inspector & a fine ought motivate them if your words don't.
3. Distance. Mind your space in lineups. Pay attention!
4. Hand wash but don't fool yourself that this is a substitute for 1-3. It's actually the least important. By FAR.
5. Take a deep breath. This will last as long as we allow it to. Yes. It's in OUR HANDS. Don't get tired of standing up vs Covid-19 because it will always outlast us otherwise. Support each other. Be kind. Be patient. Be forgiving but be firm and focused too. We are in this altogether. It's not a euphemism. It's the truth.
PLEASE be safe everyone. We don't need to panic. We just have to focus. And we can.
God bless you one and all 🙏

[xyzcf]

the part about not socializing with anyone who doesn’t live with you is not always feasible.

I agree with you. That is why testing and quarantining those who have been exposed allows other people to go about their lives, with precautions...but when the numbers are getting so high, it's almost impossible to do that kind of public health control measure.

My golf league is having a year end banquet, outdoors but there will be eating and talking and 48 people are attending. I don't think that is safe, especially because even out on the golf course, several people do not follow the protocols. Each of us tries to determine how safe activities are. From the begining I had decided I would not attend. It isn't necessary to me to have a year end golf banquet this year.

It's been a really tough 7 months and still more to go. Canada has a different way of dealing with things and they are already closing in...we have Canadian Thanksgiving in 2 weeks and it's those types of "family gatherings" that have the potential to transmit the virus.

[barbiedoll]

I am in Ontario , less than an hour from Toronto . We are watching the cases increase very quickly with 700 Monday and today 554 with the majority in Toronto and its burbs. My H works in Toronto and is in and out of there several times a week and he is considered high risk with underlying health issues. It is damn scary . They have made some cut backs and restrictions in terms of bars closing at 11, changes to visitors in long term seniors homes , mandatory masks, 10 people only indoors and 25 outdoors..  They will be further announcements tomorrow apparently and I for one hope there are some shut-downs and a far more serious penalty for non-compliance.  The high school at the end of our street has an "outbreak", the funeral home on the corner has people standing on the street to comply and many of the resturants close at 3 .  My daughters University did NOT open at all and she is teaching , marking and continuing to work on her PHD all online . She has ZERO source of income as she was teaching piano in our home and that has stopped since march. The University pays a small amount to her for marking. I can see the stress and unhappiness on her face as socially she is almost a recluse.    I have returned to online grocery shopping , only eating at home and just resolved to early hibernation mode. We will not be going anywhere that is not absolutely essential.  Since there typically is 32 of us for thanksgiving ...all of it is cancelled . There is no way to make it work without risking a 10,000.00 fine ...not that I would break the rules anyway.  Very stressful times and this is only the start of the "second wave ". 

[Treasur]

I'm going to make this easy to understand.  You decide how hard it is to execute

This doctor sounds like an informed straight-shooting kind of chap. And we probably need more of that.

Here in the UK cases are rising exponentially again in the last couple of weeks and there are differences in different parts of the country. Despite the blah blah, the reality is that we do not have an effective robust national testing or tracing system yet. It doesn't feel like there is much of a plan tbh. it is interesting to see that people's reactions are different than they were in March....the 'advice' is less clear, politicians seem to be less trusted, people feel disheartened and are responding in different ways and questioning the basis for decisions more. In a way I suppose we are all trying to make risk assessments based on something we can't see with limited data that we are not sure is reliable.......trying to use our common sense in a situation where our government seems to not be doing so in a way which is immediately transparent. The jokes about coronavirus only waking up at 10pm when the pubs here now have to close are becoming more frequent  ....as are the questions about why the 'rule of six' means you can't see your grandma in your house but you can sit in a train carriage with strangers on your way to work....further announcements here today too, Barbie 

I wonder tbh if it is not unlike the post-BD experience of figuring out our own POV of the reality we can see and taking tough decisions on the back of that? If actually it is a series of deeply personal questions....do I believe x or y, does x matter more than doing y....and that the answers may be genuinely quite difficult ones to swallow based on our circumstances. The execution of them as the good doctor says.  i am finding that it is usually the smaller choices not the standard ones like wearing a mask that throw me.....when my neighbour's kid runs up and wants to hug me, when a neighbour chum invites me in for coffee in her kitchen bc she doesn't see it as a risk, getting closer to my walking chum to untangle her from a set of brambles.....perhaps it was just easier with more of an absolute lockdown message? Idk.

[marvin4242]

Great thoughts and observations. My only thought is that we as humans are really bad at holding risk and fear in proportion. I think a lot of people don’t “get” the cumulative risk from “small” behaviors. So they think all the small contacts are not risky. It’s hard to see how these amplify when talking about many many people.

I am ignoring the people who are outright ignoring information and are denying facts. But the ones who aren’t tend to fall into too much fear (which is better for everyone but bad for their own well being) or not enough concern.

So Treasur it’s an interesting point that maybe subtlety is part of the problem. It’s easier to “get” simple black and white lockdowns.

[Nerissa]

I’ve been following the rules as it isn’t onerous for me.  Our ‘weak’ spot is my 18 year old because I feel I don’t want to make her stop everything so she has seen close friends in small groups or singly; she has driving lessons; she completed some work in a small office.

That’s mostly it.

But this weekend an old friend from overseas whom I haven’t seen in quite some time asked if I could meet her.  We went to two well known and fairly pricey restaurants in town.  I was very surprised.  I had expected 50/75 % capacity and extensive screening, yet both seemed as full as normal - and both were fully booked several days beforehand.   There was limited screening in one and none in the other.   

I felt sorry for staff as they had no choice but if the virus is spread by aerosol, there was no escaping it, ifmpreaent, for them, or customers.

We were, however, asked to leave both at 10 pm, so they could have only one sitting.  My 18 year old accompanied us to a ‘nice ‘ cafe during  the day and commented that she didn’t feel at all comfortable with the crowding.

It seems to me that a large number of people are living life as they Normally would, despite knowing cases are rising in our city,  even before the majority of undergraduates arrive in 10 days’’ time.

I was cursing my ‘people pleasing’ instincts that I’m supposed to have addressed and am not going to do it again!

[marvin4242]

Well here is another bit of good news, in that one of the vaccines is showing that 2 doses produce a very good antibody and T-cell response which indicates it should be effective against the virus.

In brief: "New results from a clinical trial of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine have shown that the jab can induce a “robust” immune response against the virus, raising hopes it will provide at least some protection against Covid-19 infection.

Scientists from the partnership gave the vaccine to 60 healthy volunteers aged 18 to 55 in April and May and found that two doses produced antibodies and T cells that should fight the virus. Antibodies take on the virus directly, while T cells destroy cells that the virus invades."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7

[lawprofessor]

Here in N Illinois, my district, we are back under mitigation.  This means we are now closings bars early, no eating inside restaurants, large gatherings are prohibited etc.  My county positivity rate was 10.3% the other day.  For me that means fewer hours I can work so a lower paycheck as courts have limited hours. 

Yet, schools are open, universities are open, football and baseball and soccer are being played.  One furniture store was fined and closed for allowing people to shop without masks.  Yet the casinos and slot places are doing a booming business and at any one time you can see 1 in 6 aren't wearing masks according to a study done by a research group here.  Since schools and universities opened our positivity rate has increased from 3.7% to hovering around 10% with an increase in hospitalizations as well.

We have around 17% unemployment and another 29% are reporting working at part time rates.  Evictions are cranking up as the courts are beginning to work through a back log.  Domestic violence is up.  The power companies are now doing their pre-winter shut offs for non-payment of bills.  And record numbers if people are signing up for food assistance. 

Yet people are driving the 30 minutes to the state border to go to bars, casinos, restaurants, and apple picking in a state with a 22% positivity rate.  And so our numbers are climbing.  But according to the newspaper people see no correlation and are puzzled as to why numbers are rising. 

38 of 41 of our schools have reported cases of Covid but all remain open.  States can't process unemployment claims timely since the offices are short staffed and many work from home but it's ok to tell factory workers to return to the lines where cleaning and social distancing are impossible, that is IF the factory has orders, which most don't.

It's the contradictions that are confusing and angering in my perspective.  The jokes are the same, the virus awakens after 11 pm when the bars close and knows where state and county lines are drawn.  People are angry and getting angrier.  I hear more and more say they don't trust a vaccine and won't be getting it if one becomes available.  The Federal government says one thing, the CDC another, this state has different rules from the state 30 minutes north or the state 2 hours west, different countries and different towns have different rules, different districts have different rules.  We've had a variety of scientists and doctors say contradictory things. 

Is it any wonder people are confused, tired, and angry, yearning for a return to normalcy? 

Lp

[LBS_Les]

I am in Ontario , less than an hour from Toronto . We are watching the cases increase very quickly with 700 Monday and today 554 with the majority in Toronto and its burbs. My H works in Toronto and is in and out of there several times a week and he is considered high risk with underlying health issues. It is damn scary . They have made some cut backs and restrictions in terms of bars closing at 11, changes to visitors in long term seniors homes , mandatory masks, 10 people only indoors and 25 outdoors..  They will be further announcements tomorrow apparently and I for one hope there are some shut-downs and a far more serious penalty for non-compliance.  The high school at the end of our street has an "outbreak", the funeral home on the corner has people standing on the street to comply and many of the resturants close at 3 .  My daughters University did NOT open at all and she is teaching , marking and continuing to work on her PHD all online . She has ZERO source of income as she was teaching piano in our home and that has stopped since march. The University pays a small amount to her for marking. I can see the stress and unhappiness on her face as socially she is almost a recluse.    I have returned to online grocery shopping , only eating at home and just resolved to early hibernation mode. We will not be going anywhere that is not absolutely essential.  Since there typically is 32 of us for thanksgiving ...all of it is cancelled . There is no way to make it work without risking a 10,000.00 fine ...not that I would break the rules anyway.  Very stressful times and this is only the start of the "second wave ".

Im in Toronto and ya, the 700 spike the other day had me a bit worried.  I haven't been adhering to the bubble policy to be honest, because of the point about the "doing my part in the spring".   But I'm in isolation and will likely not meet up with friends for a while, until our numbers come down

I know our cases are on the rise, but I'm focused on hospitalizations and ICU statistics.   Those are back on the uprise, so Im going to try to revert back to spring time behaviour - out for Groceries only.

650+ cases today with a 67K Backlog of test cases 

[FaithWalker]

Things seem to be going fairly well in our County so far.  The uni made all incoming students and staff do mandatory testing before coming back last month, as well as random daily testing.  They are also doing waste water testing and can catch an outbreak before it happens apparently.  They are also doing LAMP testing with saliva.  Our school district has been to see a demonstration and has been looking at adding these forms as well.

Our total positivity rate is 1.68% but we have seen an uptick in cases over the last 2 weeks.  Right now we are in the phase "Protect our neighbors" and received a variance that allows 50% capacity at all types of establishments and businesses and gatherings of up to 500 people (whichever is less).  If we do well in the next 4 weeks we will receive a capacity increase.  If things get to a certain extent worse, we will drop back into Safer at Home phase.

Since March 1st, we have had 689 positive cases and 5 deaths.  A majority of our cases have been from people traveling to other States and Counties, and then spreading it to family members and co-workers.  We have had 8 small outbreaks, 5 of which are resolved. (1 nursing home, 2 churches, 1 extended hours program, a college sports team, 1 restaurant, 1 construction company and a wedding at a hotel)

About 14% of our kids are in online learning by choice of their parents, the rest are back in face to face learning.  The schools are "cohorting" so that if there are cases they can easily do contact tracing and are working very closely with the heath department.  So far there have been 18 cases of students or staff, all of which through contact tracing were identified as having been exposed outside of school.  1 staff member was in contact with many people at 1 school, so even though she/he was the only case at that school, the school went online for the allotted quarantine time.  They were back to in person learning as of yesterday.  Masks are required for all high school and middle school students and they have to fill out a daily symptom tracker.  Elementary kids have to wear masks on the bus, when walking through the halls, and working in small groups with their teachers.  Their parents are required to fill out a symptom tracker for them every morning.  Staff is also required to complete the symptom tracker every morning before work.

[xyzcf]

A ray of sunshine this morning, This could really help. Rapid testing to identify if you are free of the virus.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lockdown-rapid-testing-1.5758034

[marvin4242]

That is great, but we have to be careful when rapid testing is misunderstood and misused (case and point, the White House outbreak).

And I HOPE they can get away from the incredibly painful nasal swab, that seems minor, but I think it may keep people from using it (specially if its a daily process).

[terra]

I am recently being approached for roles in management of clinical trials.

This is a bit outside my usual roles, and I’m not willing to take it on. What it tells me is that there is likely unusually high turnover and rapid burnout in these companies and roles at this time.

I hope everyone is safe and well, and please, have patience for the science developments. Especially in USA, the pressure now is both political and profit-driven, and that’s not how those environments usually work.

[marvin4242]

Interesting update of sorts on what is being seen. This review/update talks more in depth about long term Covid symptoms, and clarifies how COVID may cause four different syndrome rather than the one that we seem to think of the progression of disease.

From The Guardian summary:

“ Subtypes of lasting Covid identified by the NIHR included patients experiencing the after-effects of intensive care; those with post-viral fatigue; people with lasting organ damage; and those with fluctuating symptoms that move around the body.

“We believe that the term long Covid is being used as a catch-all for more than one syndrome, possibly up to four, and that the lack of distinction between these syndromes may explain the challenges people are having in being believed and accessing services,” said Dr Elaine Maxwell, the lead author of the report, which drew upon the experiences of patients and the latest published research. However, Prof Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, cautioned that narrowing long Covid down to just four syndromes might be too simplistic.”

It’s a good read.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/long-covid-what-we-know-so-far

https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedreview/living-with-covid19/

[Acorn]

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873

“More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.
In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.
But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.
It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.”

[OldPilot]

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873

“More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.
In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.
But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.
It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.”

I know that we tested negative for covid,
negative for anitbodies,
but we definitely had covid.

So have they had any studies of people becoming reinfected?

I would say if I become reinfected that it is more probable that I never fully recovered from the first time.

Just my opinion.

[marvin4242]

Here is a good website with demonstrations of risk of spread in various scenarios and conditions. Which also explains why some countries are imposing certain lockdown but not others.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

[Acorn]

Thank you, Marvin, for sharing the link. 

I took a look and it is highly informative and beautifully presented.  This article is another reminder that we can all contribute to lowering the spread of Covid 19 by taking personal responsibility seriously and being aware of the impact our choices has on the wellbeing of those around us.  Don’t we LBSs know that better than anyone else!   

May I add a quote from Angela Merkel’s most recent speech:

“Populists who call coronavirus harmless are dangerous and irresponsible. ......  Freedom is not doing what everybody wants but freedom is responsibility," she said. "We are in a dramatic situation -- it affects us all."

[xyzcf]

Regarding antibodies:
https://coronavirus.medium.com/dont-freak-out-over-that-waning-covid-19-antibodies-study-8705e7dbf1d8

[marvin4242]

May I add a quote from Angela Merkel’s most recent speech:

“Populists who call coronavirus harmless are dangerous and irresponsible. ......  Freedom is not doing what everybody wants but freedom is responsibility," she said. "We are in a dramatic situation -- it affects us all."

Great quote, another one I love "Do not mistake inconvenience with lack of freedom."

[Treasur]

Thank you for sharing that, Marvin.
Just the kind of clearly presented information people need to assess and manage day to day risks - and sadly and strangely rare at least in the UK right now.

[OldPilot]

This is very hopeful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awc0bN07Aac

[xyzcf]

Thanks OP, I like that Australian guy!

Although there is less concern about COVID being transmitted from touching things aka going to a grocery store, certainly there are other germs that can cause disease.

This article says that the most problematic is the pin pad. Good reminder of measures you can take to stay safe.

Happy Hallowe'en all.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/marketplace/marketplace-supermarket-germs-1.5778492

[Acorn]

This is very hopeful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awc0bN07Aac

Thank you, OP.  Interesting video!

It will be interesting to see how those curves will look in a few weeks’ time.  The U.S. is supposed to be around 3 weeks behind Europe which means that the two areas are not in the same spot in the pandemic cycle.   

Also, keep in mind that testing in some states show very high positivity rate, meaning not enough tests are done to reflect the reality of the spread of the disease.  For example:

South Dakota: 47 percent positive.
Wyoming: 43.2.
Idaho: 34.2.
Kansas: 33.8.
Iowa: 32.9.

[terra]

This:

https://buildbackbetter.com/priorities/covid-19/

The plan from the President-elect and team.

[marvin4242]

In addition to a much more coherent and science based approach coming this result today is a real bright light towards the end of this pandemic. We knew it was coming but its still nice to get the data. Now we just have to try to convince the 50% of the Americans who are saying they won’t get vaccinated to understand they really should.

Pfizer’s Covid Vaccine Prevents 90% of Infections in Study

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/pfizer-s-covid-vaccine-prevents-90-of-infections-in-large-study

[Thunder]

I was just posting that, Marvin. 

Some hope, huh?

[marvin4242]

I was just posting that, Marvin. 

Some hope, huh?

Not some hope, pretty much the end of the pandemic. Once we can make enough AND people get vaccinated. 90% is much higher than was needed or expected. At 60-70 it would pretty much end things, at 90 it should shut it down. Again ASSUMING everyone is vaccinated. Heck if the immunity only lasts six months it just means getting another dose in 6 months.

Companies and countries (and with help from Gate foundation) have set up capacity to ramp up as fast as possible. So a lot of things are lined up. With the new President if we can put in place a national plan to distribute the vaccine it will help a lot.

[xyzcf]

This is fantastic news!!!!!!

I am so happy that there is such great hope.

The problem is going to be to convince people to get vaccinated.

I am also so happy to see a COVID task team that has clear plans for how to deal with this virus.

Sound steps that should have been taken from the beginning:

Increased testing and contact tracing

Additional investment in vaccines and treatments

Mandatory masks and more PPE


A push for 'clear, consistent, evidence-based guidance'

Rejoining WHO and searching for future threats



https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/08/health/biden-pandemic-plan/index.html

[marvin4242]

Good study on highest risk places for Covid. The article is bloated, here is the essence:

"Certain venues — places of worship, full-service restaurants and gyms — disproportionately contributed to infections. In Chicago, for instance, 10 percent of sites accounted for 85 percent of predicted infections."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/10/coronavirus-restaurants-gyms-hotels-risk/

[marvin4242]

Not news but confirmation of the impact of the vaccine efficacy from a very respected and trusted expert in the field. It may help with our feeling of dread as our cases in the US have jumped 60% in one week due to our complete failure to address this problem.

This will fade IF enough people are willing to get and have access to vaccine in the US (which in itself is an open question). Unfortunately as OldPilot and many others point out the after effects for those who will get sick won't simply disappear. I am going to say that the US national response to this challenge has been a near disaster and I will never get over my shock. I would have never expected that so many of us would live in such delusion and denial at such great expense in lives and pain to others. To me denial of this problem and focus on financial and "freedom" aspects smacks of a kind of narcissism and lack of empathy I find truly frightening and repugnant. A co-worker was talking about "freedom" in the same breath he told me his son, a military pilot, got sick a couple of months back and has not recovered enough cardiovascular capacity to be cleared to fly again. And most likely will not be for months to come if ever. He was one of the lucky ones, he will recover.

So here are the words of Dr Fauci after my little rant above. Quote from Guardian below.

When asked by ABC News’ Robin Roberts whether the country was headed toward a national lockdown, Fauci said he would like to “stay away from that” because “there is no appetite for locking down.”

Fauci added, “I believe that we can do it without a lockdown. I really do.”

Robins also asked Fauci, who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, what he would say to those suffering “Covid fatigue.”

Fauci replied, “Help is really on the way. ... The cavalry is coming here. Vaccines are going to have a major positive impact.”

[xyzcf]

I totally agree 1000%!

Each individual can make a huge difference. Probably the hardest thing is to STAY AWAY FROM ANYONE WHO DOES NOT LIVE WITH YOU.

No social gatherings, fewer trips to the grocery stores, watch church services on the internet...do everything you can to avoid contact with other people, don't go inside anywhere if you can avoid it.

Living totally alone, this is really hard. I am losing long time friends because they continue to get together in groups of many different people...refusing to believe that you can make a difference.

I am less optimistic than marvin, our numbers are way too high. We did however back in the spring flatten the curve..we can do it again.

Thanksgiving and Christmas are going to be really tough people.

I think of this as what my parents did during WWII..they sacrificed many things for the good of others..now is our time to do the same.

[Nas]

Not news but confirmation of the impact of the vaccine efficacy from a very respected and trusted expert in the field. It may help with our feeling of dread as our cases in the US have jumped 60% in one week due to our complete failure to address this problem.

This will fade IF enough people are willing to get and have access to vaccine in the US (which in itself is an open question).
I'm already dismayed and concerned by how many people I know who have said, "I'm not going to be the first one to get that vaccine."  Distrust of vaccines needs to be overcome (which of course will take no small effort.)

Unfortunately as OldPilot and many others point out the after effects for those who will get sick won't simply disappear. I am going to say that the US national response to this challenge has been a near disaster and I will never get over my shock. I would have never expected that so many of us would live in such delusion and denial at such great expense in lives and pain to others. To me denial of this problem and focus on financial and "freedom" aspects smacks of a kind of narcissism and lack of empathy I find truly frightening and repugnant.

Ditto, times a billion.  First, the after effects are something that aren't talked about enough.  I am extra scared of getting sick, as someone already dealing with health issues, because the thought of late effects of this virus is terrifying.
 And I also don't want to have to live with the thought that I didn't do everything I could to prevent someone else from getting sick and/or experiencing long term effects.

Second, the cognitive dissonance occurring here is frightening.  I know many people who can see, or at least say they can see, the adverse effects of the virus but continue to do things that put themselves and others at risk, as if they've convinced themselves that even though they know the virus is dangerous, they're somehow both immune to getting sick and incapable of spreading it to anyone else.  Someone I've always known to be an extremely intelligent person texted me last Thursday evening absolutely panicking that she had symptoms of Covid (she's been out constantly to indoor restaurants, live music events, and inviting near-strangers into her home through the entire pandemic).  Then texted me Saturday announcing - not asking- that she was bringing over champagne to celebrate Biden's projected victory.  Then got bent out of shape when I told her it was too risky, acting as if I was condemning her for her lifestyle choices.

A co-worker was talking about "freedom" in the same breath he told me his son, a military pilot, got sick a couple of months back and has not recovered enough cardiovascular capacity to be cleared to fly again. And most likely will not be for months to come if ever. He was one of the lucky ones, he will recover.
This is just frightening.

So here are the words of Dr Fauci after my little rant above. Quote from Guardian below.

When asked by ABC News’ Robin Roberts whether the country was headed toward a national lockdown, Fauci said he would like to “stay away from that” because “there is no appetite for locking down.”

Fauci added, “I believe that we can do it without a lockdown. I really do.”

Robins also asked Fauci, who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, what he would say to those suffering “Covid fatigue.”

Fauci replied, “Help is really on the way. ... The cavalry is coming here. Vaccines are going to have a major positive impact.”

I totally agree 1000%!

Each individual can make a huge difference. Probably the hardest thing is to STAY AWAY FROM ANYONE WHO DOES NOT LIVE WITH YOU.
No one is doing this, and the message isn't strong enough, unfortunately. 


No social gatherings, fewer trips to the grocery stores, watch church services on the internet...do everything you can to avoid contact with other people, don't go inside anywhere if you can avoid it.

Living totally alone, this is really hard. I am losing long time friends because they continue to get together in groups of many different people...refusing to believe that you can make a difference.

I am less optimistic than marvin, our numbers are way too high. We did however back in the spring flatten the curve..we can do it again.

Thanksgiving and Christmas are going to be really tough people.
This scares me because everyone I know has plans to travel and treat the holidays as "business as usual."

I think of this as what my parents did during WWII..they sacrificed many things for the good of others..now is our time to do the same.

I do believe, as Fauci says, help is on the way.  But at least where I live,  people know they should be taking precautions and are choosing not to, which is why they're saying one thing and doing another.

[xyzcf]

But at least where I live,  people know they should be taking precautions and are choosing not to, which is why they're saying one thing and doing another.

One strong example I can think of that "explains" why people  are not listening to public health's messages is smoking. I was a heavy smoker, I knew it was bad for me but I continued to smoke long after I understood the risk I was taking. I was a nurse and we used to smoke on the units in our conference rooms. Eventually, I quit because I was pregnant and did not want it to affect my baby.

Smoking however is a strong physical addiction....perhaps that is true of the need for human socialization.

People who are obese and refuse to change their diet or exercise is perhaps another example.

People think, it will not happen to me.

I was thinking back to my nursing training and public health laws. I goggled this:

What is the legal basis for public health in the United States?
Definition. The legal basis of public health is rooted in the population's rights to health, safety and life. As the population is the sum of its individual members, it stands for the sum of the interests and rights of these individuals.

Unfortunately there does not seem to be any enforcement of these laws. There really are not any fines or imprisonment for disobeying......and I am rather shocked at how many people don't care about others but only their own need to see their friends and family. Even at the risk of infecting those they love.

It was evidenced in the election results...the number of people who refuse to believe science...I think people lack critical thinking skills to judge truly what is the right thing to do in a situation that we never had to fight before in our lifetime. A situation that is responsible for countless needless deaths that did not have to happen. 242, 000 deaths in the US and growing everyday.

[Nas]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/12/covid-social-gatherings/

[marvin4242]

One small study I saw that is interesting. Apparently low dose aspirin given to people who are suffering from Covid-19 reduced the rate of ventilation by around 40%. It was a small scale study but it has basis in theory. If micro-clotting from immune response is part of the cause of the damage to heart and lungs aspirin is a light blood thinner and may help.

I honestly think the circuit breaker shutdowns in UK/EU, basic adherence to science and policy, and vaccination will bring this to an end. It is interesting to note that numbers are already turning around in UK after one week of a 4 week lockdown. Now the wave that follows will go through the hospitals, I hope it doesn’t cause an overload.

I deeply fear its too late for us to act now to stop this wave in the US. The wave of hospitalizations that will follow our current wave (which in itself is still only on the rising part) may simply crumble a lot of hospitals. Specially in remote and rural areas where the positivity is through the roof and they simply don’t have the resources like major cities (in my area) have.

[marvin4242]

@OldPilot and anyone else who may be interested. Someone mentioned this place that is focusing specifically on long covid (long term symptoms, treatment and support).

https://www.gwdocs.com/specialties/primary-care/covid-19-recovery-clinic/

COVID-19 Recovery Clinic
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY CLINIC OFFERING SPECIALIZED TREATMENT FOR PATIENTS RECOVERING FROM COVID-19

[marvin4242]

And even more information and results from studying Long Covid. A highlight from article:

Preliminary data from the first 200 patients to undergo screening suggests that almost 70% have impairments in one or more organs, including the heart, lungs, liver and pancreas, four months after their initial illness.

“The good news is that the impairment is mild, but even with a conservative lens, there is some impairment, and in 25% of people it affects two or more organs,” said Amitava Banerjee, a cardiologist and associate professor of clinical data science at University College London.

“This is of interest because we need to know if [the impairments] continue or improve – or if there is a subgroup of people who could get worse.”

Another reason to now pretend its ok to spread and/or to get the virus if it can be avoided.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/damage-to-multiple-organs-recorded-in-long-covid-cases

[xyzcf]

I listen to medical personal begging for us to take steps to slow down the spread of COVID. They are exhausted and under such stress and personal danger..it does not have to be this way.

2 things that struck me today:

The US has 4 % of the world's population and 20% of the world's COVID cases.....20% of the world's COVID cases and only 4 % of the world's population...something is terribly wrong.

Dr. Fauci repeated this morning and I have heard it from several other sources that there should be enough vaccine available for the general population by April 2021.

There is such hope in the near future but so many needless deaths will occur before then as people continue to deny how real and how dangerous this pandemic is.

And may I say, the lack of cooperation from the white house at this moment in time is beyond comprehension. We need the present COVID task force to work with and share information with the incoming government. To wait another 67 days before there is cooperation and openness is sheer suicide.

[marvin4242]

And more excellent news. Moderna vaccine appears to be 94% effective. This also indicates that vaccines should be highly effective against this disease and reaffirms the AstroZeneca results (they are both novel mRNA vaccines).

The Moderna vaccines also has the advantage that it can be stored in regular refrigeration (near 38F) instead of requiring specialized sub freezing refrigeration’s. So easier logistics of storage and distribution.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/16/covid-moderna-vaccine/

[Songanddance]

Topic is locked - unless anyone wants to set up a 5th thread?   

New thread:  https://mlcforum.theherosspouse.com/index.php?topic=11665.0