[Whyus]

Hi everybody,
I’m surprised that there isn’t a discussion About this already but never mind. Here it is.
https://www.trackcorona.live

To all you LBSs all over the world. We will get through this but it will be hard. Take it seriously, In Germany it is kicking off big time, next week we will have a similar Situation here as seen in Italy today. Just ask Milly WTF is going on there!!!

We waited too Long to shut down, heck, I’m in work atm  . I was at a Deez nuts concert last Wednesday (200 People), Papa Roach last Tuesday (5000), C2C Berlin the Friday before (10,000) and Beartooth the day before that in Berlin (2.500).
At the time of the Deez Nuts concert (11.03.2020) Germany had 1.966 cases of the Coronavirus and at the time of the Beartooth Concert (05.03.2020) Germany had 400 cases. There was no shut down, we hardly gave it any thought. It was the first and last Gig of the Deez nuts tour, they cancelled the next day and are now totally skint and had to quickly get back to Australia (with all the gear and merch)! They will probably never play a Gig again, many small bands will perish because of this as will many pubs, bars, clubs, restaurant, and small businesses. The list goes on and on…..

Now we have 11,312 cases in Germany and we are basically closed for Business. This last week has seen numbers sky rocket, if we knew the extent earlier we wouldn’t have gone to those concerts but we did because we didn’t know better. The death rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries, we have a very expensive Health system but you get what you pay for and I guess and I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else atm. The British NHS doesn’t stand a chance, they are all heroes who work there but not prepared for this.
Do not make the same mistake as the Europeans made and wait for the authorities to officially say "Stay home!". Just stay home already, don’t panic and use the time wisely. Be creative or teach the Kids how to cook…. this is Maybe a Chance in disguise.

The Brits are still going to concerts, The Turks (2 cases on Saturday, 18 on Monday, 47 Tuesday and 98 Today  ) are still going to Football. These public gatherings Need to be stopped everywhere, 163/197 Countries are affected atm.
Once the snowball starts rolling then it’s hard to stop.

Maybe, hopefully if we close the planet down and reboot after a certain amount of time we will all come out of it better than we went in. At least as far as priorities are concerned. Do we Need all These material Things? Do we Need to travel so much? Why do we argue over “nothing”?

Stay safe Friends and buckle up.

[forthetrees]

BD was a weird sort of resilience training that will come in handy with this pandemic.

[Thunder]

Whyus, I hesitated starting a discussion on this, but I'm glad you did.

This is effecting so many people right now, from all over the world, this may be a place for us to discuss this with each other, talk about your concerns and share information.
Maybe just support each other.

I can't believe they waited so long to tell people to avoid large crowds, Whyus.   

"At least as far as priorities are concerned. Do we Need all These material Things? Do we Need to travel so much? Why do we argue over “nothing”?

Good questions, Whyus.  I can think of many more, like who's hoarding all the toilet paper?  lol

Hugs to everyone, stay safe.

[OldPilot]

Well at least here we can practice safe distancing and give (((((HUGS))))) to all.


I agree we will get through this.

[in it]

IMHO The hording and selfishness that's going on by the public sounds like an underlying problem of people in general. 

A crisis appeared and magnified it. Sound familiar?

This is the peoples reaction to a crisis. Panic, run around, buy all the toilet paper. Have not one thought for anyone else.

Do we say America is having a mid life crisis? Is it just us?  Or did other countries people react like this?

[Finding Joy]

Whyus!  I agree that it is a nice reset!  We are enjoying being home, though we are on spring break currently and homeschooling 4 kids hasn’t started:).

We have it good though, we can walk to the water from my house and still keep our distance from people on the beach.  So few people are on the base beach.

My prayer has been that God would use this for good. 

[xyzcf]

#stayhome

A week ago, I reluctantly considered to self isolate and practice "social distancing". I live alone and my work and activities are essential to my mental health. Overnight, I reluctantly came to the conclusion, that this was the only weapon we have to make sure that we slow this down so our health care system can even have a chance of treating those who will require intensive care and especially ventilators.

As individuals, we do not usually have much we can do to impact things, and  some friends disagreed with me, and that created some bad feelings..of course now, that is the gold standard...stay home.

Today, the CDC will have a webinair at 1:00 PM ET. They are the world's expert resource and that is where I go to to obtain factual information: It can be accessed at:

https://emergency.cdc.gov/epic/learn/2020/webinar_20200318.asp?deliveryName=USCDC_2067-DM22150

The loneliness is problematic for me. The uncertainty of how long we will not be able to live our normal lives and the economic ramifications of all this are frightening.

Praying for our world and our leaders and all of you as we live through this epic crisis in our lives.

I once thought that MLC would be the worst thing I ever faced in my life, I think COVID-19 takes that title now.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

I am at work, but schools are closed and no students since last Thursday. I have not hoarded anything and still have a month's supply of paper towels and toilet paper. Bought it at Costco because it was on sale in January. Nothing to do with hoarding, but my wife loves Charmin.

I think the hoarding has come to a stop, but now we have long lines as they only allow a certain number of people in the stores at a time. Now people will really want to buy in bulk so they can avoid the lines.

While the number of cases in California remain small, the need to respond quickly will help. By practicing social distancing, cleaning hands often, and common sense, we can flatten the curve and save thousands of lives. It's not that the virus is deadly to all, it is deadly enough for many of our loved ones- my parents are both at or over 80 (My mom turns 80 in November). My father has a compromised system- he had bladder cancer surgery a little over a year ago. That puts both of them at high risk. Right now they are in Texas visiting my brother. They are meant to fly back in two weeks. I told them that they should consider postponing until mid April as they are facing the risk of infection at the airport and flying on the plane. Also, my brother can shop for them so they can truly self-isolate for the next few weeks.

Restaurants have closed, but I am planning on ordering food to go to support them. Just like I normally do. Just we will eat at home. Plenty of alcohol to last a long, long time.

Other than that, I am fine and doing well. Hope everyone stays safe and well during this time.

((((Hugs)))

Ready

[Thunder]

Ready, some places are not just allowing so many in the stores at one time, but they are also starting to limit how much of something they can buy at one time.

That makes sense and should have been put in place right away, but who knew people would panic buy like they did?

Hopefully this will allow for better distribution of produces to everyone.

Live n Learn.

[OldPilot]

I once thought that MLC would be the worst thing I ever faced in my life, I think COVID-19 takes that title now.

I think remembering how bad you were after BD I might disagree with this assessment but you can still come here and vent and talk to virtual people.

I will send you a virtual ((((HUG))) or maybe for you suggest you download the APP "Golf Clash" on your phone and you can play virtual golf.

[Treasur]

I think in the UK we are a couple of weeks behind the arc that other European countries are seeing. But a 30% jump in identified cases in one day today to just over 2600 and I think just over 100 deaths. Government rapidly changing its position and getting tougher with the recommended advice though. Churches services cancelled yesterday, but most schools still open and restaurants etc. Lots of big social/music events cancelled or postponed until the Autumn. The best informed guesses seem to suggest a peak here in April, that things will get worse before they get better and that we are not testing enough to establish reliable knowledge about transmission, mortality or incubation periods. Same obsession with toilet rolls though....what is that about? 

It's quite interesting to see the cultural and political differences in how different countries are responding. I suspect the two biggest problems for us will be the availability of NHS resources and the economic impact in our service economy bc of 'flexible' contract working.

From what I can see, people are being relatively English about it...quite a lot of 'keep calm, wash your hands and carry on'. Perhaps more frightened about the economy than the potential scale of deaths right now?

I agree with others that LBS skills come in handy right now. I also agree with others that it's a strange time to feel alone when we used not to be.

[Maleficent]

It really has become a strange world, a chilling place.  For those of us who are alone, it has become more isolating.  Maybe we get texts from spouses or x-spouses trying to assuage their own guilt by asking how we are and to let us know if we need anything (that's what I got).  Maybe we have silence. 

With trying to GAL and build new friendships and reinventing ourselves, and having succeeded in some ways, now all of that crumbles.  When you take everything away, it is just us now.  And maybe that was the feeling that led our spouses to BD day.  We are stronger now, but how long will the stillness last?

xyzcf, I would not say that individually the effect of this pandemic is worse than BD (globally it is truly horrible), but maybe it is making us see what we have lost.  Sending hugs to you.

In the states,my state has been shutting down for the last five days.  Churches are closed.  My aunt's funeral included just family.  Hospitals are now on restricted access.  Restaurants, bars, gyms, retail stores, schools, some doctor's offices are closed.  Some weddings have been cancelled. The shelves are bare in the stores--cannot understand why there is a run on toilet paper.  Bare bread and milk aisles I can understand.  Went to the store this morning with an open mind.  My neighbors are checking in.  But, I do feel truly alone. 

You all take care.  We are strong.   

[KeepItTogether]

From what I can see, people are being relatively English about it...quite a lot of 'keep calm, wash your hands and carry on'. Perhaps more frightened about the economy than the potential scale of deaths right now?

Of course the over-consuming US is in mass hysteria over the perceived toilet paper crisis.    But I am very concerned about the economy. I can see small businesses suffering first. But it is all inter-related and I pray we will be able overcome all.

My H thought it was all bs last weekend. The media had over-hyped something once again. I set him straight. But clearly, whomever he is talking to/living with, had no concerns either b/c it wasn't until I laid into him that he could see there was in fact a pandemic in the world around him. Makes me think OW is as ignorant as him, or just listens to whatever he says and agrees with it. That will NEVER be me.

I am worried about my in-laws. Both are older and smokers and FIL has COPD. Both think there is nothing wrong. Both continue to be out and about. I reach out on a daily basis to offer help, errands, groceries, etc., but turned down every time. Proud and stubborn. And ignorant.

Like Mal said, we are strong. Sending hugs to all my LBS friends  who feel so alone now. I hear you all.

[Standing Strong]

Corona is way overblown. It's surreal to watch, but this is a teaching moment.....

Someday, something really bad will come out and it'll look a lot like this (at the beginning).
Keep your eyes open, listen, observe. See what is in short supply and what is needed to keep going. Have a plan for either hunkering down, or running away.
This Corona will pass, and then it's time to make sure you're ready for next time.

Just like MLC, this is a blessing in disguise (IMO).

-SS

[Treasur]

It's funny, Kit, that I think both Mr Trump and Mr Johnson here seem to have changed their tune a bit in the last couple of days. Apparently Mr Johnson was given a report by a guy called Niall Ferguson from Imperial College that laid out some big stark scary numbers if the UK government did not change course......and so the tone has changed coming out of government briefings.....and then what the media says starts to change.

I think that for many folks the possible scale of how things might unfold is so inconceivable, so far from normal, that a lot of people are reacting just like we did post BD. We couldn't believe that x would happen or that our spouse would do y....until they did. Perhaps we LBS just find it easier now to think the unthinkable and lots of other folks will take a little while to catch up?

[Mitzpah]

Interesting to see your takes on this... I have people from my immediate family in different parts of the world.

Let's see - my d25 is in Ireland where they have closed everything except for grocery shops and chemists, she is young, healthy and mad that they won't let her work! She is working out at home and goes running in Phoenix park just to get out in the fresh air (she is her mother's daughter after all ) It was St Patrick's yesterday and they made a home cooked lunch and drank G&Ts!

My mom is in the south of Brazil in a relatively small town where they have not registered a case yet (over 350 in Brazil so far). She is over eighty and recovering from a hip operation. My sister and BIL are still working. They are being very careful of her.

My other sister and BIL live in Portugal (close to Anjae) and are working from home - things are getting pretty scary there. My BIL is a scientist and professor and my sister is an English Language teacher. Their children are spread out but young adults.

My brother and SIL with 4 kids are living in the UK and are self isolating at home - must be crazy at their house, but my brother is keeping the reigns of the situation and making the best decision for his family,

My other brother lives here in Brazil, relatively near me but outside the city zone and Rio is gradually clamping down on everything - no schools, no universities (public or private), many people working from home, we have up to a hundred cases within the city limits - companies are changing workers' timetables so they can use public transport at emptier times, all monuments, shopping centers, parks are closed. Bars, restaurants can only accept up to a third of their capacities, the police are going around with loudspeakers telling people to get off the beaches and go home. No buses can go outside the city zone, neither can buses come in, so people who live outside the city zone can't get to work. We are not allowed to visit patients in hospitals, no prison visits, no public gatherings, churches going online, maids (common convenience here) are being told to stay home  and conscientous people are paying them. We have a large amount of the population living in slum type communities where it is practically impossible to self isolate.

Our president does not make things easier. Nuff said!!

I think MLC and the knocks life has dealt me recently have taught me a lot of resilience and common sense, so I just put my head down, wash my hands throughly and forge through this, being careful of my neighbor.  Is this worse than MLC? not to my mind, because as others have noted, I am very lonely and this just exacerbates it, however, I do know that we will eventually get through it.

My beloved? He had a cold last week, so I offered help and asked him to take good care of himself - he replied with a laconic - "I am trying" He is a risk group - whether he realizes it or not, IDK.

May God have mercy on us all and keep safe!

[strawberry]

The disease is highly contagious, that’s for sure.  Probably more than we realize.  Give they are saying 80% that get it will have little or even no symptoms and we aren’t doing widespread testing, it could be far more widespread than we realize.  The mortality rate is very high in the elderly but the latest numbers I’m seeing for the whole infected population are now estimated to be much closer to the flu.  Everyone keeps pointing to Italy for how bad it will get and I keep asking what the population there looks like compared to other nations?  Is it older?  More smokers?  Those facts matter.

So I keep coming back to “at what cost”. Are we actually saving lives by destroying the global economy?  And how many lives?  Does even one life saved justify the financial ruin of millions?  It’s the retired those just starting out that will suffer the most though lower retirement funds and future necessary tax increases to pay for all the bailouts being talked about.

Have we reached a point where the cure is worse than the disease?  I am not an expert it virology, but I do understand data sets and statistics and economics and the numbers don’t work out when I look at what they are presenting.

[Mitzpah]

Oh, and I am still putting in a full workday as I drive my own car and have my own office - we are surrounded by bottles of sanitizer and encouraged to keep away from each other. Some people are able to do home office but my boss has not allowed me to do that yet.

And the supermarkets here in Rio are fine, they only ran out of alcohol in gel.... even that is coming back now. People seem to be pretty calm about not stockpiling things, perhaps because Brazil has not really ever seen this kind of scenario before, maybe a little in the early eighties with hiper inflation, but that is all.

[Thunder]

I believe we have about 60 reported cases of the virus in Minnesotan most all of them were travel related, not person to person.

I was at the grocery store about a week ago and nothing was sold out, except hand sanitizers.  Stocked full. I should have bought extra TP then, but I saw no urgency.
I'll go tomorrow to see how things have changed in a week.   

All out schools are closed, along with businesses.  Hoping this will slow things down.

I think people just need to stay in as much as possible, wash hands often and stay way from people as much as we can...or groups of people.
This will end, it's just a matter if time and using the common sense God gave us.

I'm with Barbie, I'm using this time to do some Spring cleaning and tossing out a lot of unnecessary thing I've had in my garage since the day I moved in here,7 years ago. 
Anything I haven't missed, in 7 years, is going to the Salvation Army or the dumpster.
My drawers and closets are next.  lol  I do need to downsize.

My family is all safe for now.
God bless everyone and their families.  We'll get through this.   
Some countries are already starting to recover.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Here in western NY state life is very different now. Churches and libraries have all been closed. Bars and restaurants are only allowed to do takeout or delivery. Most grocery stores and other businesses that remain open are operating on reduced hours. All K-12 schools and most colleges and universities have canceled in person classes and are attampting to move everything online. We have two people living in my county who have the disease and one employee from my college who is awaiting test results.

I'm actually less alone now than usual. My granddaughter and her cat have moved out of the college dorm and in with me fulltime. During the day GD18 alternates between here and her mother's house. I'm in the process of moving all of the classes I teach to an online format. All of GD18's classes will also be online. Classes resume for both of us this coming Monday.

I still go out for daily runs. Otherwise, occasional trips to my daughter's house and the grocery store are my only reasons for leaving the house. I spend way too much time reading posts on FB and online articles about coronavirus.

I don't believe the problem is that the coronavirus is all that bad for most people. The problem is that our hospitals are already close to capacity with normal issues such as influenza, diabetes, cardiac issues, other respiratory issues, etc. The system has no excess capacity to absorb a large influx of new patients who are sick with an infectious disease like coronavirus. Even before coronavirus we would often transport patients to the ER and have to leave the patients in a hall cart because all of the rooms were full but we can't leave suspected coronavirus cases in a hall cart so where are we going to put them?

This is becoming very difficult for my brother whose wife has dementia. Her daycare facility has closed so he has no choice now but to stay home from work to care for her fulltime. He's trying to work from home but it's challenging for him to do so while caring for his wife.

My oldest daughter posted a photo on FB yesterday showing my 3 granddaughters about 10 years ago when they were all little. My wife commented that she misses those days. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that she's forgotten that she was living with me back then. She's still working because she's head cook at the public high school. They're still making takeout meals for the school kids because without free school lunches some of the kids wouldn't be getting lunch.

[Ready2Transform]

My city is like Brain's. We've had a few cases (first death in the state) in my county, and the metro area is taking it very seriously. Most friends working in live music, service industries, etc. are heavily impacted financially for the next few months as venues and dine-in have been halted from operating as normal. We're innovating a lot around here to come up with solutions, and I think in that way it will be a silver lining moving forward.

I thank everyone who is taking the quarantine seriously, as my father is high risk. So far so good for both of us, but so far we're both still living in our own places.

In many ways this mirrors my experience around BD. That hasn't been so much of a trigger, and I hope it doesn't become one. That shows more healing than I thought! But I was both emotionally and financially devastated at that time, and completely isolated (I might even go so far to say imprisoned, since I was gaslighted into keeping the whole thing a secret or else he "wouldn't come back", and had no means of transportation outside of xH, who limited where he would take me for necessities and always required money). So I am rolling with it this time a lot easier. I just want the best for everyone around me to weather it with as little fallout financially, stability-wise, and health-wise, as possible.

[Enyo]

Crazy chaotic busy at work - I manage a GP practice (UK) which provides medical services to 14000 patients.  We currently have 26% of our staff either sick or self isolating.  The situation and guidance is changing hourly and I am spending my days trouble shooting - think I'm getting too old for this lark though not quite in the elderly age bracket yet.

We changed all our face to face routine appointments to telephone consultations earlier in the week but now we have had to cancel all our routine service.  We are still dealing with non-COVID-19 acute illness (though you would be surprised what some people think is acute!) but stretched with staff of sick or self isolating, we are rushing through home working - self isolating doctors working from home but hampered by a shortage of laptops (we have desktop PCs in consulting rooms) and (as understand it - but not a tech geek) a lack of VPN service, in practice struggling with a lack of phone lines - more than adequate number normally but now trying to carry out a lot of work over the phone its a problem, BT and our IT dept is working on this so hopefully this will be OK soon.  The UK 111 service is dealing with the patients who think they have the virus, though now unsure who has it as currently they are only testing those admitted into hospital as part of the triage process - testing in the community was wound down though I hear it is to start up again soon - the 111 service is completely overrun and extremely stretched.  I think this week we will be moving to collective working pattern in our area,   GP Practices working collectively to set up 'dirty' units where we can assess patients and either admit them to hospital (if there are beds) or send them home with advise, whilst patients who are just non-virus unwell will be seen elsewhere.  We are low on PPE and have no hand gel left - some people seem to think they can help themselves when no one is looking,  I think we need to put a warning sign up that we have CCTV, we have actually passed information onto the police!  Just a note - we are having as much trouble getting hand gel as everyone else!

In my area there is a lot a deprivation and  the closure of schools this Friday is going to mean that lots of children who rely on school meals  could go without food - here's a plea - food banks are really struggling at the moment if you have anything spare think of donating.

Personally I have one son who is just over 7 days into a 14 self isolation after a weekend in Rome and one son on the other side of the world in Australia doing his 'farm work' and living in a hostel, he hears they will be moving to lock down there and with no global travel and no work it looks like the bank of mum and dad will be making donations - we're extremely lucky we can do this.

MLCer working from home as of last Tuesday (his home  ) but checking in regularly - kept me company on the phone for 45 minutes last night as I drove home from a toilet paper mercy mission to S28 (self-isolating)- dropped a few other essentials whilst I was at it.

Haven't been hording though as I batch cook I have plenty of meals already prepared - great  at the moment with the long days at work and all I want to do when I get home is sleep - but have made sure I have fence panel paints and other DIY stuff in the house to keep me occupied for when we go in to lock down like Italy and Spain - only allowed out for work and essential shopping (and I hope to walk the dog!)  - and I want to make sure I have something to do.

Sorry for the moan but after being positive at work all day just needed to download!  and I can't even but danish pastries for our full staff briefing tomorrow as our local shops won't allow you to buy that many  ,  A member of staff today went into Lidl and picked up 3 pieces of plaice for dinner for her, her husband and son - she was told that she was only allowed one piece and to put two back - the worlds gone made!

On that note I'm going to open a bottle of wine

Take care, stay safe
Enyo X

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thanks for the interesting and informative update Enyo. Here's another plea. The American Red Cross is reporting a critical shortage of blood due to canceled blood drives. You can still donate by calling and scheduling an appointment. I would imagine other countries are also experiencing this.

[AlvinTheMaker]

Corona is way overblown. It's surreal to watch, but this is a teaching moment.....

Someday, something really bad will come out and it'll look a lot like this (at the beginning).
Keep your eyes open, listen, observe. See what is in short supply and what is needed to keep going. Have a plan for either hunkering down, or running away.
This Corona will pass, and then it's time to make sure you're ready for next time.

Just like MLC, this is a blessing in disguise (IMO).

-SS

I rarely disagree with you Standing, but I've seen this creature affecting friends and their families in China, Korea, Italy, Spain and many other countries. I also know folks who battle against this at WHO... The R factor of virus is much higher than most diseases we face. That is what makes it a serious killer.  Imagine of 5% of US population needing hospital care at same time, and you can treat only say 0.25%...that is why all these precautions are done.

None of us can't escape this disease. But we can make a difference by stalling how quickly it spreads. Without action it will go through country like US in month or two, with stalling measures it can take 3-8 months. Every month stalled saves more lives .

Alvin.

[Tyks]

Here in Canada is much the same as brain. Schools are closed, restaurants and bars are take out only. The prime Minister just closed our borders. No travel at all. Our doctors are wanting phone consults. Even our courts are closed. Never thought I'd see that day.

Sad times for sure. Global economy is going to take a very hard hit.

[Thunder]

I have been following everyone's post and concerns, but I have to say I was most confused over Strawberry's post.

I hope I misunderstood some of what you said.
Can you please explain what you meant by what you said?

"The mortality rate is very high in the elderly but the latest numbers I’m seeing for the whole infected population are now estimated to be much closer to the flu.  Everyone keeps pointing to Italy for how bad it will get and I keep asking what the population there looks like compared to other nations?  Is it older?  More smokers?  Those facts matter.

So I keep coming back to “at what cost”. Are we actually saving lives by destroying the global economy?  And how many lives?  Does even one life saved justify the financial ruin of millions?  It’s the retired those just starting out that will suffer the most though lower retirement funds and future necessary tax increases to pay for all the bailouts being talked about.

[3Boys4Me]

W e are in Seattle, WA ground zero of the virus in the US. My s15’s girlfriend’s grandfather is in ICU with it - last night they said he wasn’t likely to make it through, he is part of an experimental drug trial and hoping that he will pull through. Because of the exposure through the girlfriend and her family, we are in quarantine for two weeks. Our schools are out until at least end of April. I began exhibiting symptoms last Tuesday and my S14 came down with a fever/cough/body aches two  weeks ago. They are rationing the tests out here for only severe cases because the demand is so high. So we got tested for the flu in order to rule that out - with a negative flu test, then essentially means it is likely we have the virus. So far s15 seems good and s27 and his fiancé are downtown in the city in quarantine without symptoms. I have felt very ill and my youngest feels pretty crummy too - but we are otherwise healthy so unlikely for it to get much worse.

But ugh. No other human beings around for two weeks - we can go for walks, bike rides, etc, and we have some great activities at home for school and fun / we’ll be fine. Stay safe and healthy all.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Take care of yourselves 3Boys. I hope you all recover quickly.

Sending prayers and best wishes for S15's girlfriend's grandfather. How is S15's girlfriend's family other than her grandfather? Are they ok?

[xyzcf]

Sorry 3Boys.  Take good care of yourself and your family

[Finding Joy]

Yes, 3 boys I hope you recover quickly!

[in it]

Yes take care of yourself 3Boys.

[Ggg4life]

3boys-

I'm sorry to hear this has landed on your doorstep. I'm glad you're all together.  Just know I'm lifting you all up in prayer after I type.  I will be sending out waring Angels and the hosts of heaven on everyone's behalf.  I'm praying for our MLC'rs along with restoration of all kinds.  I believe God is going to use a time such as this to stir the hearts of his children and the nations.  Many will be changed one way or the other because of this crisis.  God willing people help one another, not hurt.

May you all stay safe!! God Bless!! GGG

[Thunder]

3boys,

I am praying for all of you.  I know you guys got hit pretty bad out there.

Please let us know how things go.

Hugs

[OffRoad]

I'm not sure what to say. I was sick with what I thought was a flu at the beginning of February. I hadn't been sick like that for ten years and it took me down for two days. The aches and pains and fever and chills that send you to bed to sleep. Might that have  been the corona virus? I think likely as I live in a large city with and international airport. But I wasn't tested. My son in AZ went to the emergency room for a respiratory illness that was becoming pneumonia. They didn't test him. Was it the corona virus? Likely, but again, who knows?

Italy has a high aging rate. 23 percent of the population is over age 65, and families often live together. Young people go out, catch what they think is a cold, bring it home to their elderly parents or grandparents.

What I am seeing is that this virus hits the elderly the hardest, it's quite likely that there are a lot of people who have had it that haven't been tested, that mortality rate is really no greater than a normal flu, but the elderly are unable to fight it off well, that anyone with a compromised immune system or other diseases should be extremely careful, and that throwing everyone into a panic and into stores where there is no way to track who was exposed to what where could have been a very costly mistake. If my mother were still alive, I would be extremely careful because she was over 80. But guess what? She died anyway, through no fault of corona virus. Some of these deaths might have happened if they had caught the common cold as opposed to the corona virus. We can't know.

We now have people either working from home or sent home, alone. What if they get terribly ill? Who will know or help them? How will the person who lives hand to mouth survive? How will the small business survive? People go to work when they are sick because they can't afford not to. If one of those people is a nurse, or a cleaning crew member and either go from one location to another....there you go.

This reminds me of the wildfires in my region. There was plenty of time to get people to safety, but no plan in place to do so. The fires burned up to people's back yards without any warning, when those fires had been burning for HOURS all night long. It was no surprise they were coming. The resulting evacuation was a mess. Many homes were lost that didn't need to be due to foolish city "regulations" that did not allow the nearby military base to help.

There were so many better ways to avoid the spread, but you'd need an actual action plan for that. No travel from where you live to another country. If you need to get to your home country, then you are quarantined when you get there for whatever the incubation period is (and strangely, no one has said how long that is). If you have been on a plane that had been anywhere international within the past (whatever the incubation period is), you are quarantined. That would have been a simple start. How about those poor people on the Holland America Amsterdam? Not one has Corona Virus now (as of the last report). But after trying to navigate an unfamiliar city, and taking hours of flights through several airports home, how many of those 70,80, 90 year olds are still going to be healthy, do you suppose? As a point of philosophical discussion, it's almost a biological culling of the infirm. Accidental or no?

I think the issues at hand are that there is no vaccine for the elderly or easily susceptible, there is limited hospital space for severe cases, and that also means that (I would think) a lot of surgeries that can be put off will be (and that is a hit on funds for the hospitals), and that the medical profession is also running scared for fear that if they do X someone might get the Corona Virus and blame/sue them (Personal opinion based on the crazy that I just experienced with an OB/GYN). I do think the media has made this far worse than it needed to be. I am please to see many people sharing their rolls of toilet paper. . I, personally, can sit here for about 6 months if I have to because that is just how I shop in general.

I hope the rest of you stay well.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

29 million Americans infected, 280,000 hospitalized, 16,000 dead including 105 children.

2019-2020 influenza statistics as of 2/21/2020

In a typical year less than half of all Americans get a flu shot.

9464 cases, 155 deaths, 64 critical

Coronavirus, yesterday, since 1/19/2020

[Treasur]

As a general principle, I'm more inclined to believe large groups of international scientists over politicians. What I am reading suggests that the coronavirus does represent a real threat. Mortality rate is probably more like 1% bc a lot of folks have a mild case without reporting/being tested, true enough....but that is still ten times the rate of normal seasonal flu. And it has a higher transmission rate than say SARS did and probably a longer incubation period when people are infectious without knowing it. And 1% of millions is still a very big number.

I guess what my logic also says is that, as a general rule, politicians like Mr Johnson here in the UK don't like trashing the economy bc it doesn't make them look good  . Same for Mr Trump. So if they are doing so, it is rational to believe they have hard number projections about the risk that the rest of us don't have regardless of ones political leanings. Do people sometimes panic or exaggerate in these kinds of circumstances? Of course. But we all know the power of denial too.

The best advice I have seen so far is to flip it on its head and behave as if you knew you were a carrier as opposed to focusing on protecting yourself from others....and to change your behaviour accordingly. There is very little we can do about some things but focusing on that and the basic advice about hand washing etc, we can do. Basic stuff to keep your immune system boosted and manage your anxiety. Gratitude and support for our healthcare workers who are on the front line. And I have checked out where I can donate blood locally as Brain suggested too.

I'm sorry 3 boys that this has touched you and your family and we are praying for you all to make a speedy recovery. And thank you for quarantining yourselves to protect others.

[Songanddance]

This I found to be an interesting read. 

Love the fact that the lesson the article mentions is to Tell the Truth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-1918-spanish-flu.html

[xyzcf]

The article Songanddance posted is very good. I had to subscribe (it is free) to the NY Times to read it.

It's been one week since I made the decision to stay in my home. What the article states and what I can see, is how do I sustain this isolation for an extended period of time?

I have my dog which I am really grateful for but she is quite old and not well. She's been my constant and beautiful companion for 9 years and I hope she can stay with me a bit longer.

Also, we are so lucky to have the internet to be able to communicate with others! I also live in a beautiful state and my walks each day outside are great.

I limit how much time I watch the news, but stay up to date with what I consider the place where I obtain my information from, the CDC website. I listen to smooth jazz , classical or religious music and have a glass of wine before dinner.

I read HS 

Thank you all, my virtual friends for sharing your information and valid concerns here. Stay home. It may have to be for longer than we would like but then, there will be recovery and a whole big world to enjoy once again!

Psalm 46 was sent to me by a friend..it gives me hope.

 God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. 2 Therefore we will not fear, though the earth give way and the mountains fall into the heart of the sea, 3 though its waters roar and foam and the mountains quake with their surging. 4 There is a river whose streams make glad the city of God, the holy place where the Most High dwells. 5 God is within her, she will not fall; God will help her at break of day. 6 Nations are in uproar, kingdoms fall; he lifts his voice, the earth melts. 7 The LORD Almighty is with us; the God of Jacob is our fortress. 8 Come and see what the LORD has done, the desolations he has brought on the earth. 9 He makes wars cease to the ends of the earth. He breaks the bow and shatters the spear; he burns the shields with fire. 10 He says, “Be still, and know that I am God; I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth.” 11 The LORD Almighty is with us; the God of Jacob is our fortress.

[OldPilot]

29 million Americans infected, 280,000 hospitalized, 16,000 dead including 105 children.

2019-2020 influenza statistics as of 2/21/2020

In a typical year less than half of all Americans get a flu shot.

9464 cases, 155 deaths, 64 critical

Coronavirus, yesterday, since 1/19/2020

EXACTLY

[Nerissa]

29 million Americans infected, 280,000 hospitalized, 16,000 dead including 105 children.

2019-2020 influenza statistics as of 2/21/2020

In a typical year less than half of all Americans get a flu shot.

9464 cases, 155 deaths, 64 critical

Coronavirus, yesterday, since 1/19/2020

EXACTLY

It is t surprising that US citizens don’t truly know what advice to follow with the misinformation coming from the corrupt administration and its acolytes really.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of COVID 19 nor am I arguing against the measures being taken to slow down its transmission. But what is interesting is that we don't know how many undiagnosed cases there already are of COVID 19. Because of a lack of testing, all that we're really seeing are the serious cases.

If you look at the nmbers for serious flu cases this year, 280,000, vs. the number of deaths, 16,000, that's almost 6 deaths per 100 hospitalized which is far higher than the current suspected COVID 19 death rate. Furthermore, while COVID 19 so far seems to mostly kill the elderly and those with preexisting conditions, the flu kills people from all age groups, including many young, healthy children and adults.

Some of the news media have commented on the difference between COVID 19 in South Korea, where the death rate is relatively low, and COVID 19 in Italy, where the death rate is quite high. The biggest difference between the two seems to be that South Korea has aggressively tested people for COVID 19. It's been pointed out by the news media that this aggressive testing has made it possible for South Korea to identify those who have the disease and isolate them, thus better controlling transmission of the disease. What hasn't been mentioned is that it has also given South Korea a more accurate picture of the true death rate, including both serious and mild cases, which in South Korea seems to be much closer to the death rate for influenza.

Regardless, influenza and COVID 19 are both serious infectious diseases, the measures being implemented to fight COVID 19 are effective against both diseases, and the health care systems in most countries seem to be ill prepared to handle a large influx of new patients with either disease, so I hope everyone will follow the suggested guidelines and stay healthy. And I hope everyone's financial health isn't too badly impacted by this situation.

Thanks for giving me a forum where I can share my thoughts.

[serenity]

Thank you MB for some wise words amidst all the fake stories and panic

All the media has done is caused wide spread panic and the result of that are empty supermarket shelves and members of staff being attacked by members of the public!

It is worrying but as far as I can see more people have died of normal flu!

Take care everyone and stay safe

X

[Marchingforward]

I'm going to add something here, and take it with a grain of salt because I had no official testing. I am a therapist. I saw a kiddo who came in sick in January. Her parents told me she had had a fever the day before. She had a little sniffle and a slight cough. Her father had returned from China the week before. (we weren't really talking about COVID-19 at the time). About 5 days later I became ill. It was on a Wednesday because I was with clients and I remember having to cancel my afternoon. I had massive chills, ran a fever between 101-102 for two days, had a killer headache and a bit of a cough. After 2 days, the fever broke and I started feeling better. Took me about a week to get back to my normal energy level. Am I saying I had it? Maybe. Obviously I wasn't tested, but the timing was right and seeing as the kiddo's father had been in China.... I guess why I'm putting this out here is because we don't truly know the number of people that have been infected, so it's hard to know the morality rate, etc. I'm just complying with the recommendations because it seems prudent to do so.

[xyzcf]

Please do not downplay this.

There is a vaccine for Influenza. Influenza's "patterns" are well known by the scientific community.

You can shorten the severity and the duration of influenza with Tamiful.

This is a new virus, one that little is known about. There are no TREATMENTS for this virus. No VACCINE.

Our hospitals are already functioning at capacity in normal times. They cannot handle the number of critically ill cases that will need ventilators. Triage will occur which means that doctors will make decisions about who is going to live and who is going to die.

Get your factual information from the CDC or WHO. Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH KNOWS his stuff.

Please DO NOT brush this off as not as dangerous as influenza.


https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[Nerissa]

The problem is not simply the proportion of people who die from it.  It is that there is no immunity to it, whereas there is considerable immunity to flu both from natural means and from vaccinations.

So our medical system is swamped.

‘Normal’ flu is  by no means harmless, but it affects a limited number of people each year.  Those st the front line - the a and e personnel, the anaesthetists, the surgeons are genuinely alarmed.  If my child has a ‘normal’ asthma attack and needs a ventilator, s/he will be in competition with a very large number of other people.  The same goes for if s/he needs an icu bed after a car accident or a stroke or appendicitis or any other reason.  Psychiatrists I know are told they will be taken away from Psychiatric work and put into A and E to shore up the need.   A friend who is an anaesthetist at a university hospital said we are imminently going to have 100 people needing an icu bed and only one bed available.

It’s the sheer volume rather than the severity.  Bird flu was far  more fatal  but  far harder to catch.  If it’s your parents or relatives who are not given the bed because someone else is deemed more deserving, how will you feel?  The person who questioned whether a few lives here and there were worth the economic damage isn’t thinking that she or her loved ones are going under, I assume - that or else she’s An acolyte of Trump.

There’s  plenty of sound information (as much as is known at this stage) if we care to look to the correct sources.  There is disagreement but that is because this is a dynamically
Changing scenario and anyway, scientists question and disagree and debate.  That’s what they are supposed to do.

[forthetrees]

It all comes down to math.

0 % of the population has immunity to covid 19 whereas cautious people have had the option to get a flu vaccine for years.
So when comparing the death rates between covid and flu, you have to use denominators that differ greatly. Madrid is now expecting an 80% infection rate. If you apply that to the US population and then take 20% of that, about 53 million folks may very well need hospital care. We do not have the personnel nor equipment to tend to the number of expected sick people. Add to that all the illness and accidents that happen when not in a pandemic and we are going to be overwhelmed. When the CDC is telling healthcare workers that they can use bandanas as a desperate measure, it means we are in for hard times.

[3Boys4Me]

Thanks for the well wishes all. It’s no fun, but I have great friends and family who will run time pick up necessities and drop on the door step. MLC H even (through S14 who is pretty sick) offered yesterday and again this morning to bring anything we need.

S15s GF’s family is quarantined until March 26, the dad got it, but so far not the wife or either GF15 or her little brother 12.  The grandfather was asked to participate in a human trial, experimental so offered only if the patient is essentially going to die - well, Grandpa is responding! Wednesday night they didn’t think he would live through the night, amazing answer to prayers - the side effects are not yet know, but he is talking and responding. Thanks all for the prayers

[stillbaffled]

I believe we have about 60 reported cases of the virus in Minnesotan most all of them were travel related, not person to person.

Yes, Thunder...yesterday we had 60.  Today we have 89.  I have also been told we have over 300 samples frozen waiting to be tested because we can't get enough testing kits. 

It's going to keep going up.  I have to go to work but my building has only 3 other employees (offices quite a distance apart) and we need to be there to facilitate distance learning for students.  We've not been allowed to do it from home but it's probably going to be mandated before too long. 

Our gyms, restaurants (doing to go orders only), libraries, churches, salons, schools.....all are shut down.  The grocery store in my small town still has most items available, with the exception of toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and clorox wipes. 

I do not take it lightly - I had pneumonia many times as a infant/toddler/child and I also use an inhaler if my asthma kicks in.  I've done all I can to lead a healthy lifestyle as an adult but if a respiratory virus hits me, I'm likely to end up in a hospital.  My lungs are compromised. 

It's a good thing I've had a lot of practice these last 4 years learning how to be alone - it has come in handy. 

Stay the course, HS peeps. 

[OffRoad]

The person who questioned whether a few lives here and there were worth the economic damage isn’t thinking that she or her loved ones are going under, I assume - that or else she’s An acolyte of Trump.

This was unfair. Not everyone runs on the emotional "what-if it were their loved one who was ill".  It's OK if you happen to, but unfair to judge those who may not or accuse them of being an acolyte of anyone because they run on the "What-if the economy is trashed, people lose their house, their jobs, their livelihood and die from stress related illness or become more prone to COVID 19 due to being unable to take care of themselves and their family". There is no requirement that we have to agree with each other.

[Finding Joy]

Surviving-I also believe the virus already went through my household in January.  We tested negative for the flu and mine turned into pneumonia.  I was sick for 6 weeks, only down for two.

The two of us with asthma are the two that really struggled, the others only had it a week. 

Being in an at risk group, yet being overall healthy, I have to say this was way worse than the flu.  Though I was never tested, so nothing is confirmed.

[xyzcf]

I place my trust in The World Health Organization, The Center for Disease Control, The national Institute for Health and all the other public health agencies around the world who are leading the fight against COVID-19. They are the experts. They have prepared for pandemics before and are working towards limiting the spread of the virus so that lives will be saved.

Lives will be saved. That is what I consider to be important.

Slowing down the spread of the virus will ultimately allow the economy to recover.

A society that does not value life (and we are already in that mindset but don't get me started on that) is one that will be the ruin of itself.

Just my opinion. No we do not have to agree with one another. Nerissa was expressing her thoughts and she was well within her right to do so.

[Nerissa]

The person who questioned whether a few lives here and there were worth the economic damage isn’t thinking that she or her loved ones are going under, I assume - that or else she’s An acolyte of Trump.

This was unfair. Not everyone runs on the emotional "what-if it were their loved one who was ill".  It's OK if you happen to, but unfair to judge those who may not or accuse them of being an acolyte of anyone because they run on the "What-if the economy is trashed, people lose their house, their jobs, their livelihood and die from stress related illness or become more prone to COVID 19 due to being unable to take care of themselves and their family". There is no requirement that we have to agree with each other.

Point accepted, Off-road.  I wrote carelessly.  But I’m not running on emotion.  The post I referred to is here:

“The disease is highly contagious, that’s for sure.  Probably more than we realize.  Give they are saying 80% that get it will have little or even no symptoms and we aren’t doing widespread testing, it could be far more widespread than we realize.  The mortality rate is very high in the elderly but the latest numbers I’m seeing for the whole infected population are now estimated to be much closer to the flu.  Everyone keeps pointing to Italy for how bad it will get and I keep asking what the population there looks like compared to other nations?  Is it older?  More smokers?  Those facts matter.

So I keep coming back to “at what cost”. Are we actually saving lives by destroying the global economy?  And how many lives?  Does even one life saved justify the financial ruin of millions?  It’s the retired those just starting out that will suffer the most though lower retirement funds and future necessary tax increases to pay for all the bailouts being talked about.

Have we reached a point where the cure is worse than the disease?  I am not an expert it virology, but I do understand data sets and statistics and economics and the numbers don’t work out when I look at what they are presenting.”

And it seemed to me to be thoughtless and  and asking questions with answers, (as far as possible when the circumstances are unprecedented) which are in the public domain.  As Treasur pointed out somewhere, right wing governments are not known for trashing their economies for fun.   Expert Forecasts are easily available on any reputable news site and the  situation  in Italy and Spain  is broadcast.   The human (and economic)  cost of inaction will be huge. it isn’t hard to educate ourselves  about the basics and to know that we are not talking about the loss of a small number of lives. I’m not arguing about the ethics of choosing lives  over economic growth - just that the post didn’t seem to me to have a grasp of the situation.

Denial  and cognitive dissonance are very real. Our own experiences mean  We know that better than most!

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thanks for the update 3Boys. I hope the grandfather continues to respond well to the trial therapy. That's good news not only for him and his family but for all of us.

SB, take care of yourself. Do you have anyone to help out if needed?

[strawberry]

I’ve been thinking for a while that it’s time for me to walk away from this site.  I haven’t stated a new thread because for a long time I’ve felt that only people who run on emotion are welcome here.  I run on logic.  I’m willing to have a rational discussion with a anyone.  But I won’t debate emotional pleas.  I’ve written several responses to this post over the last day but have deleted them all.  Accusing me to be a f****** Trump acolyte because I disagree......passive aggressively asking if you misunderstood my words because you disagree is BS.  On the bright side, this site once again taught me that I don’t have to put up with stupid $h!te from my husband or anyone else.

Farewell.

[3Boys4Me]

Thanks Brain, I have tremendous support. A sister already brought me supplies today and other siblings and friends are on-line for when we need more. We are blessed.

[Seahorse]

I've been off the forum for awhile now, but wanted to put the good news out there.
China's been able to close 6 sites of service of COVID 19 because the need is decreasing.
So, in a few weeks we should be there.
Keep staying safe and doing the right things.

Sea

[Marchingforward]

[quote author=Finding Joy link=topic=11420.msg760098#msg760098 date=1584655755
Being in an at risk group, yet being overall healthy, I have to say this was way worse than the flu.  Though I was never tested, so nothing is confirmed.
[/quote]

Right! I don’t get flu shots because I did once and was so sick. I’ve had influenza a few times over the years but I’m young and healthy. If I get sick I stay home and keep away from people. Whatever I had in January was way worse than any influenza I’ve ever had. Again, I am quite healthy with no underlying medical conditions so it never occurred to me to seek medical attention so I guess I won’t know if I actually had it or not. Whatever it was, it was bad and I wouldn’t want to see what it could have done to someone with a compromised immune system or an elderly person.

[Whyus]

I am truly sorry for everybody that is directly affected by the Virus, I wish you all well and the strength to get through this. Nobody should be alone right now, make a phone call, chat with loved ones and friends, crack a joke in your Whatsapp groups and try to pick people up who are down or just bored! If anybody wants to Whatsapp me (even if out of pure boredom)  just pm me for my number.
I personally do not like the comparisons to the flu. These are the comparisons used at "the start" of this which caused Governments to take it on the light shoulder for too Long. Trump is a great example!!!

It will not be as bad as it in Italy everywhere. Italy has an older than average Population and it is common for Generations to all live together in one house meaning that the elderly are on the front line so to speak. Its similar in Spain, Turkey and other countries.
Turkey is horrible example of how quick this Virus can spread when given a Chance. On the 12.03 Turkey had just one case, 13.03 - 5, 15.03 - 6, 16.03 - 18 17.03 - 47 18.03 - 98 19.03 - 192 20.03 - 359….. we can expect to see a similar rise in countries like India, Pakistan and others soon too.

I suspect that the figures in the USA (Especially NY) are going to double in the next 3-4 days latest, a similar pattern if not quicker than that we are seeing in Germany atm.

Life will be different when this is over.  I just hope that we all as a human race can grow together a Little and show more respect for the simple Things in life and learn to appreciate Things like Sport events, bars, concerts and all public gatherings in general.

Please Stay home if you can and take this seriously. I personally have no fear, I still have to go to work every day but I truly believe that this whole Situation is for the best.
We can still go for walks and appreciate simple things. We can still ride our motorbikes (I think/hope). You are alone on a bike afterall and have a helmet on so that may just become the go to, pretty safe activity over the next few weeks.
Just look what has happened to the water in Venice with just a week or 2 without humans. The planet is breathing a sigh of relief and we Need to grasp this Chance and stand together in Solidarity.

[Treasur]

A lovely thing happened yesterday....bc don't we LBS all love those glimmers of good humans, so refreshingly unMLC  .
A note came through my door that a local group of volunteers is offering to be a source of support to anyone living alone, ill or isolated without a family support system. Our local small shops have already sent round a note that they have set up a centralised delivery system for anyone who needs it but of course little shops only have a few people. And people might need support in more than just shopping. Good idea I thought bc where I live has an older population. I'm going to ring the guy up and volunteer. I really like it when we are reminded of the kind of unshowy solidarity that WhyUs mentions.....it is easy to forget that it is out there, but truthfully our communities are full of it and we can be optimistic about that https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/after-coronavirus-well-be-poorer-and-more-broken-but-we-might-be-more-tender-too

On a more somber but practical note https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cpRlI-W_cEc.....this young fit 39 year old woman with no pre existing health conditions recovering from the virus in ICU posted this. Her big message....it's real, please don't take chances with it and you need your lungs and immune system to be as strong as possible

[OldPilot]

TAX DAY in US changed from April 15 to July 15.

[Milly]

So I'm in Italy, more deaths than China yesterday. We have 6pm daily updates, yesterday 620 deaths, it will not be less today.

Certainly Italy must have made mistakes right at the beginning when it was spreading, although to be fair, no one knew what was happening yet.

We are all asking ourselves why our death rate is so high. It's a daily question, it's the subject of nightly tv shows. I would think it's a combination of factors:

not knowing what was going on at first

large number of elderly

society: families living together

culture: very social. All ages meet up. The old often meet in the local bar/café on a daily basis to play cards. People my age go out for a pizza with friends every weekend. Teens and early twenties all meet daily in groups after school. It's fun to be a teen in Italy, but they are very touchy feely, lots of kisses and hugs, holding of each other's arms and hands even between friends is very common of all ages.

Health service: not enough ICU beds, not enough doctors and nurses so when the virus burst, there just weren't enough beds to help everyone.

Numbers: could be the number of infected people are much higher than we know, which would make the death rate more understandable.

Here, there is no doubt that the coronavirus is not your average flu. First of all because it is much more contagious. Secondly, nobody was immune to it, we have no medicines to cure it, no vaccines.

Although deaths are 90% among the elderly with pre-existing conditions (we know of many elderly cured, too), there are also many in their forties and fifties in the ICU, some completely healthy people in this age range have sadly died, too. We are so sad for all these families.

Many doctors and nurses have been infected. In one hospital alone near Milan, 70 health care workers are positive and 20 have died.

Thankfully, no children have been seriously affected at this point.

Everything except for supermarkets and pharmacies are closed. We are allowed to go for a walk or a run by ourselves close to home but that might be banned too since our numbers are not going down.

Funerals and weddings are banned. People die on their own as family is not allowed in to keep them company, not even on their last moments. On tv we see military trucks of coffins being taken away to be cremated.

We learn that so many talented people are working like crazy to turn what they do daily into something needed to go through this virus. A tights' factory has begun making masks with some particular fabric they have which is very resistant. Can't remember the words. It's not a mask a doctor would wear, but it could be a solution for the rest of us when we have to go out and do the shopping.

A lung specialist in one of the hospitals has come up with a way to have one respirator feed two patients, doubling up the number of people who can be treated.

I am hopeful when I read that 3boy's son's girlfriend's grandfather is reacting well to the trial medicine. This is so important. I do hope he keeps improving.

To me, this is not as bad as BD, or maybe my LBS skills have helped me and my kids just accept what's happening and have a view that we just carry on. However, I do feel it could be the worst world disaster yet. JMO.

We try to stay positive but there is no future to imagine at this point. I trust that it will all go back to normal as China does seem to be heading towards that.

In the meant time, keep far from others, stay in, obviously wash hands. They tell us that quarantine is one of the main ways to battle a pandemic. In southern Italy which was quarantined at the same time as we were, the numbers are really low, which shows that early lock down works. Can't stop the virus, but we can put the health service in a position to be able to treat us properly.

[Treasur]

I spoke to a friend this morning whose son lives in Beijing. He told his father that today was the first day when life has seemed a bit normal and he had been able to get out and about. But, he had also been stopped six times already by midday and forced to have his temperature checked by the local police. So, a little glimmer of hope and a different approach from China fwiw.

[stillbaffled]

Milly, thank you for letting us know how you and the kids are doing.  I think of you each day when I'm listening to the news and they're reporting on Italy. 

 

[Seahorse]

Milly - thanks for the update there.
Glad you're still doing okay.

Another point - if you become ill, try to take tylenol and stay away from non-steroidal like ibuprofen and naproxen.

This doesn't hit me as hard as I was hit at BD either.
For me, though, I think it's because I am okay if I die.
I had so much I wanted to do in retirement with my H, but now it's different.
There's so much I want to do, and will still do, alone.
I know my kids are older, and I no longer have a partner to share the joy with, eventhough I'll be experiencing it by myself.
My faith guides me to know that I'll be in a better place after I die, so ...

That being said - I'm doing all I can to protect myself and not get sick.
I'm just saying that it's different and not quite so scary.

Sea

[3Boys4Me]

Thanks Milly. Italy has been hit so hard - definitely believe the communal nature of the country as well as the affection you all show each other likely helped the spread - I think in the USA we are replicating Italy’s experience in many ways - in two weeks time we will know more. Grandpa continued to improve, a huge blessing. There will be a cure and treatment in the next year or so, until then we must all change our ways of socializing. Today I feel a bit better, S14 was out of breath today just climbing a set of stairs, so we are very cautious. My chest still hurts too, but at least I am not bed bound like yesterday. 

For me this is nothing like BD. BD was a complete rejection of me as a wife, person, our family, our life. The blindside of bomb drop has no comparison.

[Puzzled]

3Boys, It makes my day to hear that you are feeling better! You and your family continue to be in my thoughts and prayers.

Milly, thanks for providing an update and inside perspective.  I hope that the new measures - all non-essential work that cannot be done from home to cease - will soon see a decline in numbers.  It was also interesting to read that the south has low numbers of infections. I guess there are often those hotspots (as we've seen in the Hubei province in China) and with the right measures in place, the infections don't spread uncontrollably. We can do something to prevent this, and this gives hope, however dire the situation may seem now.

Here in Germany, students are starting to offer their help in buying groceries and medications for the elderly. If set up right (no direct interaction between the students and the elderly to exchange goods and money), this may protect the elderly from contracting the virus when going out shopping.  There are also some grocery chains that offer delivery.  I wonder whether such services would help in Italy as well.

Please all protect yourselves as much as possible and stay healthy.

[Milly]

3boys, so glad to hear you're a little better today. Hope S14 will too. Let us know.

Sea, good advice on which medicines to take.

Puzzled, great stuff they are doing in Germany regarding having students deliver to the elderly. I know that in China they had staff from restaurants and bars that couldn't open deliver food. Here, unfortunately, we have such strict, archaic, can't see outside the box laws that govern employment, that local stores can't just switch to hiring waiters (just one example) to deliver for stores, hereby helping the restaurants by not having to pay someone's wage whilst they aren't making any money.

On the volunteering side of things, I have seen that where one of my friends lives in the center of Florence, they were offering to do this delivery to the elderly but I suspect it won't be allowed. I do think though, that they need to work something out quickly. I don't think we can keep going to the supermarket, it doesn't make sense.

As Puzzled mentioned, last night at 11pm the prime minister made a live announcement: all business to close, except primary needs such as food, pharmacy, petrol station, outdoor news agents. I don't know yet where this stands for agriculture like the business I'm in. Up until now, workers have carried on working in the vineyards.

Last night's 6pm bulletin: 720 deaths since the day before. As they told us, these are the deaths connected to contact from 2 weeks earlier.

This virus is extremely contagious and is transferred onto others very easily. They don't know why, but it seems to be able to carry to at least 2 meters. People are getting infected from sitting next to someone who did not sneeze or cough.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

I just got a message from someone in the Philippines that stated the following steps have been recommended from China, how much of this is true, I don't know but a lot of it is just common sense so it doesn't hurt.

1. If you go out, when you come home, go and directly shower. The virus can get in your hair and clothes. Either wash clothes daily that are exposed or allow to hang in the daylight to neutralize the virus.
2. Wash hands often using any soap that foams. Wash for 20 seconds.
3. Drink warm fluids, coffee, tea, soup often and try drink warm water every 20 minutes.
4. Avoid social contact and stay home as much as possible
5. Clean and wipe common use surfaces and door handles often. Especially metallic surfaces. Be careful in touch handrails and other commonly held items when out.
6. Gargle with a antiseptic with warm water, every day if possible.

Just be safe and take care of yourselves- LBSers unite to survive!

((((Ready))))

[xyzcf]

Good morning to all of you around the world. I wake up in the morning and think "what happened?" It is hard for me to comprehend how the whole world is impacted by this virus and how quickly it changed everything.

I just wanted to reach out to you and send a virtual hug to you this Sunday morning.  Stay healthy. Stay safe. Reach out to others so you do not feel so alone. We are fortunate to have technology that allows us to connect with one another even though we are in our personal bubbles.

I DO BELIVE that we have the brightest minds, the most determined scientists around the world who are going to solve this. But as with our proverbial MLC mantra, it will take TIME.

I leave you with a scripture that called to me this morning:

John 14:27 New International Version (NIV)
Peace I leave with you; my peace I give you. I do not give to you as the world gives. Do not let your hearts be troubled and do not be afraid.

May each of you know, that you are not alone. This HS community has been a support for me for many many years. We are a "family" in many ways, and I thank each of you for being in my life, especially in times when I need a friend.

[marvin4242]

I came across two articles that some of you may find interesting. The first one definitely is a very good (expert interview) assessment of what we are facing, so good to read for everyone

"The doctor who helped defeat smallpox explains what’s coming"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/the-doctor-who-helped-defeat-smallpox-explains-whats-coming/

The second one is a bit technical but gets into the details of what we are doing to tackle the virus. In it a bit too technical perhaps but I am including for people who may have interest.

"COVID-19: the biology of an effective therapy"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/covid-19-the-biology-of-an-effective-therapy/

I think its interesting that a technical site is writing some of the better more clear headed and detailed articles on the topic.

[Whyus]

Milly, italy seems like it is a total mess Right now and yes it has to do with the "older" Population and social behaviour amongst Italians. I didnt see it myself but apparently the Italian PM said that italy has lost the fight against Corona, the Hospitals are full and there is nowhere to store/bury the bodies.
There are alot of countries who may be hit as hard as Italy but most should be more like China (which is bad enough) JMO.

I would like to extend my "Turkey" example which Shows how quickly the Virus can spread.
"On the 12.03 Turkey had just one case, 13.03 - 5, 15.03 - 6, 16.03 - 18 17.03 - 47 18.03 - 98 19.03 - 192 20.03 - 359….. " 21.03 -670 22.03 - 1.236 23.03 - 2.000+X?

In the amount of new cases in Germany seems to have slowed down over the past 2 days after having an horrific day on Friday. It is still to early to say that the curve is starting to flatten but hopefully its a good sign. I guess time will tell.
I am one of the ones who still has to go to work and help Keep everything going. I have just came out of a Meeting where our Home Office rules have been lightened, I will have to share a Laptop with a workmate and will be mostly working from home. We all still Need our businesses and employers when we come out of this so it has to go on somehow. Yes I have one of those Office Jobs where we work through this, without everybody thanking us or clapping for us. Its fine but I would rather be a Doctor Right now than an Engineer as I feel a Little useles atm but we all have to Play our part I guess.

In the USA, especially NY the Virus seems to be spreading very rapidy atm. We can only hope that it loses Momentum sooner than later but that will depend on how many People take the precations seriously I guess.

Heads up and soldier on.
We will get through this $h!te and Hopefully we will come out of it better than we went in.

[forthetrees]

Cannot believe they´d make you share a laptop. Seems like a huge risk. Got isopropyl alcohol and cotton balls?

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I live in NY state and work in EMS (volunteer). While the number of confirmed positive cases in this state have rapidly increased, it's hard to say what the virus itself is doing. The only thing I think we know for sure is that the amount of testing that is being doing has increased rapidly. If you don't have confirmed cases because you aren't testing for it, does that mean the virus isn't there?

In the rural county where I live we have just 2 confirmed cases. The other 40 or so tests have all come back negative. Unfortunately, it took almost a week to get those test results back so we still don't know what the actual status is right now.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

While the number of confirmed positive cases in this state have rapidly increased, it's hard to say what the virus itself is doing.

I agree with Brain. I live in Southern California and the three counties I work in Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino only have 155 cases between all three, but they are spread out so you have to assume the virus is everywhere right now.

Testing has been limited and so you don't know if you are a carrier or not. Many infected can not show any or a few signs while others are critically infected. For example, in Riverside County only has 45 cases , but six people have died. It is a very serious disease and we need to be careful not only for our lives but the lives of others.

Brain, thank you for your help. Have you had plenty of protection, masks, gloves and other items?  I have heard there is a shortage of masks for the people who really need them and actually know how to use them. I was in a grocery store yesterday and a man had his mask on with his nose out. LOL

So Brain, keep up the good work, but be safe!

((((Ready))))

[Thunder]

To me the worse part of this is getting everyone to take this serious.  Stay home and away from people, unless it is important you need to go out.
I have an eighty something year old woman who lives downstairs from me, she is in and out all day long.  Where in the heck is she going?? 

MB, what you do is important.  My granddaughter is a manager of a big grocery chain.  She can't stay home, people need to be able to shop for food and supplies. 

But if you can work from home, do it!  It's one of the best ways to stop this disease.

[Ggg4life]

Thunder-
Your post reminded me of last week.  I had to go back for reimaging for my mammogram, which thankfully all is well. The girl who was doing the exam said they had a big flux of mid to young age woman cancelling.  The problem they never anticipated was that the elderly not cancelling and showing up when they should be at home.  When I saw the Dr. He said they had just decided to go to a skeleton crew and no one is allowed to come back unless an emergency .  They took precautions before Thursday's news.  I never stopped to think of these lovely ladies as high risk carriers as well as high risk.  Crazy how we really need to think of various forms of contact. 
Stay safe everyone!

[lawprofessor]

Checking in from Northern Illinois.

We have 3 cases in my county, a bit outside Chicago.  Our Governor was very on top of things.  He closed restaurants early on.  We now have shelter in place orders with nonessential businesses closed.  But the factories are still working.  It was only this morning that the first 2 major factories closed sending about 2,000 people home.  The local car plant is not working either, with about 7,000 out of work. 

People have cleaned the shelves and are acting ridiculous.  A woman tried to steal some groceries out of my cart the other day.  I told her to drop my groceries or Corona virus would be the least of her worries.  She dropped the food and walked away saying she didn't know it was mine.  Really?  Hmmm.

Speaking of food hoarding, now on Facebook I see people asking if milk can be frozen as it's coming to the date of expiration from the first round of milk hoarding. 

 We see pictures nighty of people congregating at parks and beaches, having play dates etc on the coasts.  What is so hard to understand about staying home?  That the virus has a long life on surfaces and even those who seem well may not be.  Out here, common thought is that these people are a$$holes that should get sick.  We are out of work, staying home, and these morons are likely adding to the time we have to stay in, much less adding to the spread of the disease.  Irresponsible and childish.  Now I don't think anyone deserves the virus but it's hard to understand this level of stupid.  Some talk of Marshall law if these people continue to behave in this manner.

At work, crime is increasing as people are home.  Domestic violence is slowly increasing in number for example.  Prisons are seeing cases pop up, and the spread of the virus is much quicker than in public, both in the Federal and state prison systems.  Cases are piling up.  Some say who cares if it wipes out the prison population.  These same people forget guards, doctors, nurses, and employees work in prisons and go home to their families taking the virus home as well. 

My parents are elderly and J is at higher risk so some worries there as well.  J is still working but he's alone at night at the shop. 

I'm keeping busy with chores, volunteer work, cleaning, exercising, yardwork and reading.  A rotating list of things to get done each day keeps me from getting lazy or down in spirit.

Saddens me that Easter services likely won't occur as Easter is big in my culture and neighborhood.  And talking daily to Airmid, who is in NYC, quite scary to see the pictures of that city looking like a ghost town.  The other day she sent me an announcement that homeless people in shelters were testing positive in NYC.

And there are still some who seem to think this is no big deal, a political stunt related to the coming election, rather than a health emergency.  Ignorance and denial are not just MLC symptoms apparently.

Best to you all,
Lp

[xyzcf]

On  neighborhood website "Nextdoor" people are expressing that the government has no right to take away our civil liberties and that once they are taken away, we won't get them back. Some say that due to our "freedom of assembly" that the government cannot limit the number of people who are allowed to gather together and asking if we are ok with the government "detaining us for an unspecific amount of time) because of the virus.

It is hard to understand how seemingly educated people cannot listen to what science tells us..the only weapon we have at present is to flatten the curve.

[marvin4242]

On  neighborhood website "Nextdoor" people are expressing that the government has no right to take away our civil liberties and that once they are taken away, we won't get them back. Some say that due to our "freedom of assembly" that the government cannot limit the number of people who are allowed to gather together and asking if we are ok with the government "detaining us for an unspecific amount of time) because of the virus.

It is hard to understand how seemingly educated people cannot listen to what science tells us..the only weapon we have at present is to flatten the curve.

You are so spot on here. I think most people confuse freedom with the right whatever they want to do, damned be everyone else. It is mistaking narcissism with freedom, and honestly its becoming a social epidemic. Its like they don’t understand communities and groups are necessary for us to be individuals and to have freedoms that are worth having. Because you can ultimately be free as a lone individual with no one around, but its not a life worth living.

Then again I have observed for years now that there is an anti intellectual and now anti science, anti knowledge and anti expert streak that is much stronger in US than in other parts of the world. You see it clearly even in the anti-vaccine movements. It is simply maddening. And obviously is part of what may be a very uncontrolled outbreak over there.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thanks Ready!

We have a problem getting masks. Our regular supplier is out. But here's the dirty little secret nobody is talking about related to our healthcare system. Shortages are common, even during normal times. The healthcare system seems to be operating on the same Just In Time principle that invaded manufacturing years ago. It's hard to believe but quite often medications we depend on are either out or on backorder. Sometimes we're told to continue using expired medications because there is no supply of new ones to replace them. IMO this is why the hospitals are so worried.

Everything has been cut to the minimum requirements. We used to have three hospitals in my area with three functioning emergency rooms, including one here in my hometown. Now one has been completely closed and torn down and the hospital in my hometown has been converted to a long term care facility with a small urgent care facility that can't even accept ambulances. The one remaining ER stays pretty busy and from what I've heard it's even worse in nearby cities.

Our healthcare system has been in trouble for a while. This is just making it more visible.

[xyzcf]

I think this is really important:

WALKING

5. It boosts immune function. Walking can help protect you during cold and flu season. A study of over 1,000 men and women found that those who walked at least 20 minutes a day, at least 5 days a week, had 43% fewer sick days than those who exercised once a week or less. And if they did get sick, it was for a shorter duration, and their symptoms were milder.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/5-surprising-benefits-of-walking

As well as the many other benefits including dealing with stress and depression, something we can do to help ourselves.

[OldPilot]

Our healthcare system has been in trouble for a while. This is just making it more visible.

So our great govenor just told hospitals to increase their beds by 50%.
I dont know if there is a time limit on this order but where and how are they going to accomplish this.

Its not like they have hundreds of extra beds sitting in a wharehouse or the space to just throw them into a room.

Thats not to mention the staff to take care of extra beds.

[OffRoad]

I would like to see a test that tells us if we already HAD  COVID-19. What if we found out that 90% of the population has already had it and didn't know (not likely, I understand, but we have no idea). My friend was self quarantined, a few weeks ago because she had been exposed to someone who test positive for COVID -19. Out of the four people present at that gathering,  2 tested positive, 2 did not. Of the two who tested positive, one barely got the sniffles. The other it was like a standard cold, no chest issues or flu like symptoms. Her husband, on the other hand, is now in the hospital (he is 10 years older than she is).

If the husband hadn't ended up in the hospital, none of those 4 women would have been tested. No one thinks twice about a cold or the sniffles. This would have looked like a 20 % infection rate, when it was really a 60% infection rate. And if the husband hadn't ended up in the hospital? It would have looked like a 0% infection rate. If only he had been tested, and IF he died (he has not), it would have been 1 tested, 1 died, not 3 had COVID 19 and 1 died. 33% (in this simulated death example) case vs 100% mortality rate. That's a big difference to throw into the statistics.

Right now, all anyone can say is that out of the X people who were tested, Y many died or were seriously ill. We cannot actually say that out of X people who actually HAD COVID-19, Y many died. I'd like to know what the herd immunity REALLY is. That would calm some of the panic, IMO.

ETA: What if the two who tested negative had actually previously HAD COVID-19? That changes the stats even more.

[xyzcf]

 It's quite possible that people may have had COVID and did not know that they had it.

However, stats aside, that doesn't explain the huge surge in ICU cases and deaths that are happening globally right now. We were not seeing that in the US even 2 weeks ago.

As well, there is not any proof that once infected with COVID that you would be immune, that is to say that you could not get it again. Most diseases act that way but from what I have read they still do not know enough about the virus to say that for sure.

What I am seeing are tons of severe cases requiring ventilators and causing an overwhelming stress on the medical system globally. That is what concerns me.

The reason for testing is to identify where there are large numbers of people infected and place greater restrictions in these areas to slow down the spread of the virus so the medical system can cope. In countries like Italy, doctors are having to decide who lives and who will die because they do not have enough ventilators nor do we.

[Treasur]

Uk government has just announced something closer to an Italian approach. Clear message to stay at home for anything but real essential needs or unless you are a key worker. Public groupings limited to two people, non essential businesses to close, weddings/baptisms banned, people allowed out once a day for solo exercise etc. And police given powers to enforce this. Given our culture/history, this is a big step for the government to take - presumably bc we are seeing some rapidly increasing numbers - and it will be interesting to see how people react. I suspect it will be more of a problem for the police in big cities than in little coastal resorts like mine. And as Xyzcf said, the purpose is very much about the sustainability of our healthcare resources and frontline staff....to reduce the spike of seriously ill people if we can.

Although interestingly my second home owning (not very friendly) neighbours rolled up from London for the weekend and then drove back....and a lot of folks in parts of the country like mine with wealthy Londoners with second homes are starting to see this as rather anti-social now. I thought it was a bit inappropriate too tbh. Partly bc London is a hotspot and partly bc some of the prettiest rural areas of our country also have more limited healthcare resources. Hmmm, will my neighbours quickly flee London again or will their house stay empty now for a while? Idk.

I am a bit bewildered that anyone might not see Covid 19 as something real and potentially serious now tbh. There is a lot we don't know yet, true, but some pretty clear bits of scientific data and patterns that we do know from lots of different countries. Perhaps it is just that the current belief about high risk groups leads us to see ourselves as less vulnerable. Perhaps it is as simple as people struggling to think the unthinkable until they see more and more real effects in their own lives or with people they know. I'm not sure ignorance holds water now....but denial as we all know is a powerful response to traumatic events. And of course, there will always be a small percentage of narcissistic entitled a$$hats.

The gift of being an LBS, of surviving the previously unthinkable in our own lives, is that we learned some things. Including that what we choose to believe or deny affects how we act. Perhaps the biggest change in our mindsets is that we need to start seeing ourselves as part of a whole, that what we do might be less about our individual wellbeing and more about countless others that we don't even know. Bc each number on a chart is a person, each number is a team of healthcare people exposing themselves to increased risk to care for them, each number is a family affected by potential loss.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

So our great govenor just told hospitals to increase their beds by 50%.
I dont know if there is a time limit on this order but where and how are they going to accomplish this.

The great and powerful Oz has spoken! 

It seems like a logistics problem to me. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that there are ventilators sitting around unused somewhere in Italy while patients elsewhere in Italy are dying because of a lack of ventilators.

In the US we need a national entity that can control the flow of supplies like masks and equipment like ventilators and even emergency personnel if necessary so that these are all used effectively. If this is really an emergency we should start doing something more proactive than avoiding each other or trying to outbid each other for scarce resources.

[marvin4242]

FWIW a study in Iceland shows 50% of people who have Covid are completely asymptomatic.

[OffRoad]

I suppose I look at it as I can't get anyone any ventilators, I can't magically make masks appear, I can't keep stupid people from doing stupid things, I can't make the disease go away. I can maybe help if I can help keep people calm. Why go out for toilet paper if you don't need to? So I log on at 1:30 am at night, get my drop slot for Amazon or Costco, get the toilet paper (and whatever else) when it's available, break it up and deliver it to the doorstep of people who need it and aren't awake at 1:30 am when the time slots open up. THAT I can do. That keeps those people out of the stores. I'm three weeks housebound, so supposedly free and clear as far as being contagious.

If I knew I had already had COVID 19 (I suspect I did, but don't know), then I would go to the stores for the things I can't get online, and drop those things at the doorstep of people who need it. Because that keeps people who are vulnerable out of harms way, and will keep them from panicking that they can't get what they need when they need it.

It's no point for me to be concerned about something I have no control over. It's my point to DO something that may make a difference, even if only for the mental health of someone else.

[barbiedoll]

We had our 1st confirmed case of this virus in our city today at our local hospital. The news is saying that he is a "carrier"  and has no symptoms . He has however, been active and out in the community , so how many people could he have infected? . Not to mention nurses , doctors  in the hospital. What has many of us confused is how or why he was even tested as he had no symptoms and apparently at hospital for something totally unrelated.  And there are "carriers" that feel completely well and carry on as if they were healthy . How would anyone ever know you were a "carrier" ?.  Ontario is shutting down all non-essential services tomorrow at midnight . A list will be announced tomorrow specifying exactly who that means. It appears they will shut down construction sites tomorrow .. that will put my husband at home for atleast 2 weeks.  Very concerning situation for everyone.

[Songanddance]

Like Treasur I am UK  and find it almost a relief that we have moved into more stringent measures.

As an asthmatic I had already chosen to limit my time in public places and managed to do any form of shopping in "quieter times" so that I could maintaing the 2m social distance.
This morning though I woke up with a feeling of gratitude and posted my thoughts on my FB coaching page.  I wrote:

I am grateful for this latest Government clampdown in these difficult times. Why? Because ironically it's liberating. In taking away your "freedom" of choice it now highlights how we have only to make the essential choices. Yes it stops us from seeing our friends and family, yes it stops us from being able to do what we want when we want it but that is because we have been used to being spoilt for choice. Now we can choose how to use our time,rather than having to make sure we get everything in. Now we can choose to read a book, admire the sunrise/set, have meaningful telephone/skype conversations with those dear to us, prioritise what matters to us and more importantly begin to understand our feelings and work on our self growth. I am grateful because I know that what I have will turn into enough.

As LBSers we know well the need for gratitude and how it helps us through dark times and moments of crisis.

Being enormously cheeky though......If anyone would like to follow my page then please PM me and I will send you the link.

[Treasur]

Well, it seems that Prince Charles has the virus now. And there are a few more stories of younger folks dying. Perhaps these things might jolt some people out of denial, idk. On a positive note, it seems as if over 400,000 people have signed up to a government scheme to volunteer in ways that will support the NHS and free up frontline staff which is rather heartwarming. (Although I have no idea how central government will coordinate that tbh) On top of lots of local volunteer schemes including one organised by the town council and church where I live. There are lots of good people in the world trying to bring their best selves to bear on events, and that is rather nice to know. Not everyone out there behaves like an MLCer lol.

[Finding Joy]

Thank God for that Treasur!!

[OffRoad]

Good stats, if you like facts.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

[Thunder]

I agree with this:

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/01/bill-gates-us-needs-to-shut-down-everywhere-to-fight-covid-19/23967212/

[Whyus]

I cannot believe how many still dont Take the coronavirus seriously.
They 80,000 cases from China is obviously no guide as the USA, itaĺy and spain Flying past that number.  Germany will overtake China today too.
I personally Think thats ist possible that most States in the USA will overtake China.
Stay strong and Stay safe.

[Treasur]

Just heard here in the uk - where testing is also a fiasco - that the mortality numbers are only hospital deaths so they have been increased to include some people who died at home. Probably best to take them as minumum numbers not absolute ones.

I find it astonishing if anyone doesn't now think this is a real and significant thing. People who are front line healthcare workers are saying openly, with battleworn faces, they have never experienced anything like it. My government has just built both a big temporary hospital and an equally big mortuary in East London. A large London hospital almost ran out of oxygen a few days ago bc of the number of folks on ventilators. These are hard facts without any political spin.

Like others, the government here is failing miserably on testing. Both types of test.  I'm not sure why. But apparently only about 2000 of over 500,000 healthcare folks have been tested. It seems to me that with a little time people are going to start feeling rather angry about the disproportionate level of individual compliance vs the tardiness of government. When people are risking their lives to care for others, watching their businesses and finances go to the wall, dealing with loved ones dying alone.....it starts to seem rather unreasonable that the government system is failing to do what only it can do when the rest of us are doing our bit.

Please, if you haven't until now, take this seriously. It isn't flu. It is an entirely different kind of virus. It is highly infectious even when people don't have symptoms. It doesn't just affect the elderly or ill.  Please do anything you can that might keep you or anyone else out of needing hospital care bc frankly, despite the commitment and ingenuity and love of nurses and doctors, there is just a blindingly obvious gap between the capacity of most of our national healthcare systems and the basic numbers of people who might need them in the next couple of months.

The two gifts of being an LBS, it seems to me, are the experience of having to accept the previously unimaginable and to find ways to live around awful circumstances with grace. All the non-LBS are playing catch up........

[marvin4242]

I think there is some confusion about those who think this is a “hoax”, those who don’t think its serious for them without considering others (like kids on spring break who say stupid s**t like “I don’t care if I get a cold”), and maybe a third group I will say I am in.

I am trained a a biologist. So I am following all the data, the papers, the mechanism of the disease, the potential treatments, what it means to have a novel pathogen where the population has no immunity whatsoever. I try to tell people not to be needlessly frightened, because a lot of people, specially in the US, can’t understand this is not a plague with 30-40% mortality rates. If you are healthy, younger, and get Covid-19 (which most likely you will at some point in the future) you will not die. You may be a asymptomatic, you may have a very light symptoms, or you may be one of the very few who will have a less mild version. From all the newer data the non at risk population who has severe complications it is an overreaction of their own immune system. There have a been a couple of small case studies where giving those people immunosuppressant drugs have worked very well (one in which a 44 year old who was in distress started recovering with 2 doses of the drug 8 hours apart as it turned off what is called a cytokines storm reaction). As we learn and pass this around there will be better and better treatment.

It is highly serious disease for at risk population. And the rate of infection and the uncontrolled onslaught will cause massive negative consequences in healthcare as Italy and soon the US will discover. What I see is its very hard to explain to people WHAT to take seriously. The baseless fear of the disease as deadly on its own is misplaced. The not understanding how the actions of those of us who are not at high risk can jeopardize so many others through the consequences is what is baffling. It almost requires a sense of community and understanding how each of our decisions and actions impact people around us. In some cultures this is something that is clearly a part of daily life. In other cultures this is foreign and you see some of it in the reaction of the governor of Florida and the disaster that I believe is about to hit that state. I know of too many people in the US who still say things like “my rights are more important than the lives of others.”

So I am in no way diminishing the seriousness of what is happening, but I try to put in context. Baseless fear and panic will not help the situation imho, but a clear grasp of what we are facing will. And from what I see there are other complications, like concerns that if you simply lock everyone down immediately and for too long people stop paying attention.

Here in the UK they have been trying to time the response to the right point in the spread curve. This has been controversial for some, as they wanted maximal action immediately. The initial data now starting to come out is showing (too early to tell) that they may have timed it right, the infection rate seems to be now below 1.0 (where it is around 2.5) and if this holds it means it is contained for now. And they are now quietly saying that if this holds NHS will not get overwhelmed with cases which is the other major fear. So at least here in UK we shall soon see all the modeling by the scientist, epidemiologists and experts worked well. Did they pick the right moment to enforce the lockdown?

Some early indication in California and Washington state also show some positive results. We are learning as we go, but even after initial containment the next problem is how do you start allowing spread in a controlled fashion in the non vulnerable population. You can’t just go back to full blast spread, and there is no feasible way to keep everyone locked down to contain it. And vaccine is a long way away and may not be 100% effective.

For those of you who are interested in how its going look at the new case change rate as measures are imposed. Deaths are the tragedy of the disease obviously, but they lag 3-4 weeks behind any measure taken. So even as the situation may be getting under control the death rate will lag and increase and most of the headlines are focused on the death rate for good reason.

There are a lot of very clever and useful new and faster tests coming online. So as time goes on the availability of testing will increase. But there are real shortages of chemicals needed, verification of new methods to make sure what the accuracy of the tests are, and production all means it takes time. But that is the ultimate way out of this, once we can easily tell who has already had the disease, who is actively sick, and who is not we can handle the control of spread problem much better and hopefully resume something more akin to normal life.

[Treasur]

Thank you for sharing that, Marvin.
Yup, figuring out what to look at and what not, as well as ones own almost philosophical starting place is part of the process. Learning how to live with these new realities perhaps as opposed to expecting some speedy return to 'normal' but without giving up on a do-able new normal. And the need perhaps to be cautious about some of the stories we tell ourselves or some of the assumptions we make when in truth we don't know some things yet.

I was chatting to a chum recently who is a big fan of the 'planet has too many people/herd immunity' argument. My stance was that, even so, I wasn't keen on the idea of the social and practical impact of say half a million dead people in the UK within a three month period. No matter how elderly they were or my own values about life etc. I just didn't see that our social or health infrastructure could deal with that without it being an unsustainable trauma. Just not a price I would want to pay.

But i also believe - despite some of the quirks of individual public figures and the inherent 'learning as we go' failings of any government structure - that most of our societies and public bodies are trying to deal with things the best they can with good intent. Not enough sociopaths in the world sitting in bunkers with a white cat on their laps chortling at the benefits of a pandemic to warrant some of our suspicion, fear or anger imho 

[marvin4242]

Treasur: one thing to clarify. Herd immunity is a truth of what must happen with a new disease, not an approach to handling the crises. It’s a law of nature. This SHOULD happen with combination of controlled exposure (which minimizes death and human cost) and vaccine. A lot of the science based practices (like timing a lockdown) are to make sure the toll on human lives are minimized. Problem is so much of this is human behaviour, how do you get people to do the right thing, and KEEP doing the right thing for months not just days.

 Unfortunately it’s sometimes misunderstood as saying “let everyone just get sick and die.” Its really not. It’s like saying if you fall off a building gravity will pull you down. The trick is using the right parachute.

[Thunder]

Marvin, I know of no one in the US that thinks  “my rights are more important than the lives of others.”  I'm not sure where you're getting this from.  You get radicals anywhere.

I would say there may be a political group that may feel this way, but not the majority of Americans.  I see people taking this very seriously, and have from the beginning.
The government just didn't act as fast as they should have.  Places of business that were non essential, beaches and parks should have been closed right away.
Now their panicking.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

I have been limited in my travels and go shopping about once a week. Just as everything was about to break, my parents flew to Texas to visit my brother. Now they are stuck there and my father has hatched a plan where I will drive 800 miles to meet them at El Paso as my brother will drop them off. We will spend the night and then head back to California. 

I am not a huge fan of this idea and feel that they would be safer just staying with my brother and riding out the storm. However, my father is bound and determined to go back to his home. He wants to do this the weekend of April 17. Now, he has a Urostomy pouch and we will have to make several stops on the way back so he can dump his bag. He is 82 years old and my mom is 79. Of course mid-April is being predicted as the time as everything really begins to hit hard until mid May when it should start to go down. I am trying to figure out ways to convince them to wait.

Just wondering, am I off in my thinking? Please feel free to chime in!

Thanks,

Ready

[Thunder]

Oh no Ready, from what you said I think it sounds like they, and you, would be better off staying where they are.
Sometimes older people just get things in their head, like they have to be home, without thinking clearly what they are asking.  That's a long drive for him to make.

How does your brother feel about this?  Sounds like you and he may have to make the decision.

I hope it's a decision that is best for everyone involved. 

Hugs

[xyzcf]

Marvin,

Thank you for your reasonable and totally understandable post. If you don't mind, I will share it with a few people.

Thunder, I actually am encountering people personally who believe that the stay at home orders are an infringement of their rights and talk about lawsuits against the government. Having lived most of my life in Canada, and having worked during SARS I see a huge difference in the attitude of people here, and it scares me.

Ready, what a dilemma! If your parents have been totally self isolating while at your brothers then it is probably safe for you to be in a car with them. But how many people have not been to the grocery store or whatever?

I can understand why they would want to be in their own home. I know I feel much safer in my own home and I suppose staying with a relative for a long time is not always the best.

Could they fly back? Wear a mask on the plane and clean around their seats. I think there are still flights domestically.

Having to stay in a hotel and stop along the way at roadside bathrooms would carry a risk as well.

Have you talked to him about flying home?

[marvin4242]

xyzcf: please share if you think its useful. If you don't mind tack on the "herd immunity" addendum as I think its valuable information.

Ready: I'll chime in. You are very correct, your parents are much better off staying put, having someone with them and not going into California right now. Is there ANY urgent and real reasons they should do this? If not it is not wise.

Thunder: I am not being anti-US, but the truth is there is a lot more of that going on than you may believe. First look at governors of ENTIRE states who said it was a hoax, go out to Bob Evans and eat with your families, and Florida is the poster child of this kind of thing. Florida MAY already have 100s of thousands of infected people and they JUST instituted movement restrictions. Its way too late, the geometric wave will crush their capacity. And Florida has a lot of older vulnerable population. And even where my home is in the US (very wealthy, very blue) you hear of group of people on golf courses proudly refusing to socially distance because its all a "liberal plot." This is not a political point I am making, I am saying there is a very significant portion of people in the US that are no longer able to see anything outside of a political lens, even if its about health of others. Yes I see some "nutters" here in London, but trust me, they are the very rare exception, political beliefs is NOT shaping if people are following guidelines or taking this seriously. Polls show majority of one party does not believe this is serious and they think it is being played up for political reasons.

US not only acted too late, its still not acting as per best knowledge and practice. And there is minimal coordinated Federal effort. Are you aware that states are forced to compete with each other and bid up the cost of ventilators because the Federal government refuses to be the central help? By contrast all of EU has joined together and is bulk purchase and providing PPE and ventilators as a group. And people are raising their eyebrows that UK has not joined them yet because of "Brexit." Some states are taking the initiative, some are not. And not all states have the resources of California and Washington state to deal with this. It would be like asking individual village doctors to handle the situation with central help.

The situations are not equivalent. Other from Canada will chime in about what its like up there.

[Treasur]

Completely get the 'herd immunity' vs 'let the weak die while the rest of us do our thing' mix, Marvin. As youbsay, gravity is gravity.....but the experience is rather different with a parachute. And inna sense, our societies are trying to buy time for more parachutes.

The political lens is an interesting one. Many of us outside the US find Mr Trump's base a strange kind of phenomenon. And to be fair, the US is not the only country that seems to have some rather different patterns of public and political opinion that don't quite fit our old experiences of different political schools of thought. Or indeed where politics begins and ends for the average person. Seems likely to me that experiencing a pandemic may create some interesting post-pandemic opinions too.

For anyone interested and looking for a virus 'break', this talk by an author a couple of years ago looking at the underpinning issues around it https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UPYlE72OzZA is a pretty balanced and interesting take.....essentially, and he is very open about his political starting block, the author believes that a void was created in the last financial crisis and in the last couple of decades of Democratic politics which was looking for a home. Here in the UK tbh, I think there has been a growing feeling amongst many people from different political POV that they feel disenfranchised and both unheard and devalued. Would be surprised if this were only so in these two countries......

[Nerissa]

Given that Dr A Fauci has been given enhanced security detail due to threats against him from those who consider he is peddling fake news, rather than appreciating him for the exceptionally fine scientist he is, I think it’s reasonable to assume there is a significant section of US society who are ‘doing their own thing’ without heed for the safety of others. 

A US citizen I know, right wing but not rich is praising Trump and the republicans on FB.  Considering he is 86, and Trump’s preferred way is to let nature take its course, it seems like a turkey voting for Xmas to me.

[Thunder]

Marvin I agree with you, as I have so often, and stated there may be a political group that feels this way, but not the majority of Americans.  I still stand by that.
Not naming the political group because I don't want to offend anyone, but yes they do very often care more about themselves, or their politics, than concern for the country as a whole.

Yep our government did react too slowly from the top down.  Calling it a hoax did a lot of harm.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

Could they fly back? Wear a mask on the plane and clean around their seats. I think there are still flights domestically.

That was the original plan. However, their flight continues to be cancelled.

How does your brother feel about this?  Sounds like you and he may have to make the decision.

He is not for it either. In fact, my father and him got into an argument about this!

I am going to go with my gut reaction and that is to say no to this crazy plan and let them stay where they are. They are in a home, have people to help them, and access to quality care. An extra month or two is not going to hurt them at all.

Thanks for the advice!

((((Ready))))

[Thunder]

Well good for you and your brother.  I think you guys are making the right choice.
You father will get over it.  You are keeping him safe...and yourself.
Maybe your brother could use you as an excuse.  Possibly tell his dad we are not supposed to be traveling and he wants you safe and staying home until this is over.   

Personally I would not go on a plane right now, so to put older people on one is scary to me.

[marvin4242]

Marvin I agree with you, as I have so often, and stated there may be a political group that feels this way, but not the majority of Americans.  I still stand by that.
Not naming the political group because I don't want to offend anyone, but yes they do very often care more about themselves, or their politics, than concern for the country as a whole.

Thunder I like to look at data as a good way to understand issues. This is one of the more recent polls by reputable outfits. This quote is why I say political lens has now overtaken science, facts and information:

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/304646/five-emerging-conclusions-public-opinion-covid.aspx

"Our most recent Gallup data on worry about virus exposure show a 27-point gap -- 48% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are very or somewhat worried, compared with 75% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. This is essentially the same size gap we saw in Gallup data earlier in March."

Political and personal beliefs are coloring peoples understanding of reality in the US to a level I have not seen in my lifetime. I am not talking about which side of the divide, rather this simple thing. We are entitled to our opinion, but not our facts. I think whether its a majority or not it is entirely way too large a percent of the population and its harms us all. And we are seeing it in the behaviour of some who refuse to take advice on what we all need to do collectively.

I am going to go with my gut reaction and that is to say no to this crazy plan and let them stay where they are. They are in a home, have people to help them, and access to quality care. An extra month or two is not going to hurt them at all.

Excellent choice. Best of luck.

[xyzcf]

Good article from the head of the CDC:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/31/824155179/cdc-director-on-models-for-the-months-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

2 things that stood out to me:

1) That the CDC who are the experts are not the one's calling the shots about how to deal with this crisis, and that they really should be as they are the ones with the expertise.

2) the lack of funding for public health which has been a long time issues for the US. In Canada, public health is a large part of our health care system and always has been. When I worked here in public health it was so minimal to what I was used to.

There IS a mentality of many people here that there should NOT be government involvement in the lives of its citizen's. That is the culture here and important decisions such as how to combat something as serious as COVID is left to individual states..some of which only yesterday put a stay in place order.

Perhaps lessons can be learned from all this but I doubt very much that ideology will change.

I would much prefer the CDC to be charge at this moment. The fact that so much mis-information is being broadcasted to the public by the president is alarming. The fact that many people believe him is frightening.

[Thunder]

Xyzcf, I agree completely!  It should not be left up to the states because they don't all want to follow the same rules, so how does that help?  Yes the CDC should be in charge of what information gets out to the public.

I don't want to make this a political thread (because I am a political junkie and could go on and on), I'll just say.. Trump scares me too, xyzcf.

Good information, Marvin.  Thank you for sharing it.

[marvin4242]

And just now Governor of Georgia finally put a shelter in place order, claiming we “did not know there was asymptomatic transmission” until now. Which is a complete lie. CDC issued its warning on March 1. Which goes to xyzcf’s great post about the simple fact that our CDC is NOT in charge of this says so much. Both about how we view the role of our institutions in our lives, and about our chances of handling this well.

On a positive note there are lots of new tests coming, and the antibody tests should allow us to know who is no longer at risk or catching and spreading and may be the path to starting to selectively resuming normalcy.

[OldPilot]

Since I live in NY I will report that the little city I live in is mostly shut down.
My son lives in New Rochelle which was the original epicenter around here.

It is scary but I am not sure we could have done much differently than what has been done.

So far my family is all healthy and all self quartered in their homes.

As far as the politics goes I am only going to say all politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

NONE of them are acting in the best interests of our country or my personal health.

Right now NY state has outlawed the use of a drug that anecdotally cures the virus or at least keeps you from dying.
I sure hope that changes soon.

I am not really interested in blaming anyone right now I just want them to do whats best for the population as a whole and keep politics out of it.

[Milly]

Ready, from what we saw here that did help, it's best if your parents don't come home now.

Right when Italy went into lock down, it also stated that no one was allowed to go stay in their holiday homes, nobody was allowed to move away from where they were at that time (unless they were just in Lombardy for temporary work). Because at the beginning of the crisis, when parts of Lombardy were locked down, people rushed to their holiday homes on the coast of Tuscany, or to relatives in the south, and now we have a hot spot on the coast of Tuscany, and we are expecting numbers to rise quickly in the South too. So not only can moving around from state to state raise the chance of spreading the virus in general, but as someone else said, you will be risking every time you stop for gas, food, toilet, etc.

I suspect that if you can dilly dally for a week over this discussion with your dad, Trump will close off access between states anyway and then your parents will have to stay put, which is really the safest bet.

Regarding the herd immunity, which is clearly logical, just that it's a bit cruel. Obviously if we just let the virus do it's thing, it will pass much quicker and we can all get back to work. I'm like Treasur, though, I can't accept letting hundreds of thousands of people die if I know I could prevent it. And methods like lock down aren't going to stop the virus completely, of course it can't. But it will put the health service in a position of being able to cope with the seriously ill. As we discovered here, when the ICU beds were totally filled up, it meant there weren't any beds for people with other critical problems either. People here waiting for cancer surgery are having to wait. People needing a bone marrow transplant are having to wait. This is was the herd immunity method causes when we are dealing with a virus as aggressive as the coronavirus.

I think we have to be careful of pointing the finger at anyone. When we are frightened, we need to find someone to blame, just like after BD, right? But as we're seeing with this crisis, those who pointed the finger originally, are in as big a mess themselves now. I think that it was just that nobody had ever experienced anything like this before in our day.

To remind people who might not know, I'm in Italy. We seem to be in our peak right now. The numbers are still very bad but not increasing, so we seem to be floating in the bad numbers. We judge our politicians, our health service, Europe, the banks, and it goes on...Two definite causes that we are aware of already that created the situation we are experiencing in Italy were:
1   In spite of the Health Ministry issuing warnings about the Coronavirus and how to prevent its spread to all hospitals and medical facilities in early January, no body seems to have read it or adhered to it, which allowed for the virus to be spread in the hospitals by the staff as well as patients.

2  Lack of protective material for medical staff, lack of ICU beds, lack of ventilators. If there had been enough masks and gloves and gowns, the virus would have spread less. If there had been enough ICU beds and ventilators, many could have been saved. Because of the lack of beds, people were only brought to hospital when they weren't breathing, making it very hard to save them at that point.

It's not even a question of money, it's a question of organization and preparation. Underestimating this crisis seems to have been a major contributing factor everywhere.

[xyzcf]

No trust me I do not want this to become politicalized. I think we can share our thoughts/ concerns and worries  in a respectful way. Indeed who else can we share this stuff with? I trust the CDC because I spent years working in infectious diseases so I admit to being biased by my own personal experience. And I do appreciate other’s points of views because we can all learn from each other.

[Nerissa]

This is a very interesting piece written by an eminent neurosurgeon and author.

[Treasur]

I think too that here, more than most maybe, we can genuinely understand from personal experience how powerful normal reactions to the trauma of the previously inconceivable affect our decision making. I assume that this is no different for those who hold political responsibilities. The great advantage of folks like the CDC or individuals with experience like Dr Fauci in the US is that it isn't inconceivable to them bc they have spent years looking at the unthinkable or dealing with other epidemics.

I grew up in a developing country that had frequent power cuts bc it had a constrained capacity. It seemed entirely possible to me that if this situation runs for long enough or effects a big enough percentage of infrastructure employees, power cuts could be an issue here in the uk. (I didn't share those thoughts with friends lol) And then just a couple of days ago, a news article raised it as a concern. It shocked some people but not me bc to me it was already something I had experienced....so not unthinkable. Whereas the churches closing did shock me even though it made sense that they did. Our paradigms shape what we find unthinkable i suspect.....and slowly we adapt as events unfold.

From what I can see there were red flags in January but I'm not sure that any country acted on those, even if individuals behind the scenes were trying to encourage them to do so. And now we are all learning from those who are a couple of steps ahead of us and working with the flaws and advantages of the political and social systems we have. Political with a big P is rather different from political with a small p perhaps?

Missing link, Nerissa....? Or are you just whetting our appetite with a little tease lol....?

[OffRoad]

Thunder I like to look at data as a good way to understand issues. This is one of the more recent polls by reputable outfits. This quote is why I say political lens has now overtaken science, facts and information:

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/304646/five-emerging-conclusions-public-opinion-covid.aspx

"Our most recent Gallup data on worry about virus exposure show a 27-point gap -- 48% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are very or somewhat worried, compared with 75% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. This is essentially the same size gap we saw in Gallup data earlier in March."

Political and personal beliefs are coloring peoples understanding of reality in the US to a level I have not seen in my lifetime. I am not talking about which side of the divide, rather this simple thing. We are entitled to our opinion, but not our facts. I think whether its a majority or not it is entirely way too large a percent of the population and its harms us all. And we are seeing it in the behaviour of some who refuse to take advice on what we all need to do collectively.

Here's where I don't understand your reasoning where it's a "political" thing. The words in your quote are " very or somewhat worried". How much you are worried about something has absolutely NO bearing on how seriously it is taken. I take this 100% seriously. And I am not all that worried. Why? I'm working in my house. Any elderly relatives I have are already deceased.  I worry incessantly about my children but they do not live with me and I have no control over them. I do not go out and about for random reasons, except to my own yard. I sometimes drive if I cannot stand it in the house any longer and bring gloves to refuel my car.

I take this seriously. I would not consider myself  "very or somewhat worried" in general about my own exposure. Terminology when people ask poll questions is VERY important. Circumstances for the people being asked are also very important. People who run more on emotions are "worried" people. People who run more on logic might take it seriously, but look more towards "what can be done to mitigate this" and don't "worry" because what is the point of "worrying". Just do what you can do to mitigate it.  Does that make sense?

And thank you for the informative posts, Marvin.

[OffRoad]

Hello,

I have been limited in my travels and go shopping about once a week. Just as everything was about to break, my parents flew to Texas to visit my brother. Now they are stuck there and my father has hatched a plan where I will drive 800 miles to meet them at El Paso as my brother will drop them off. We will spend the night and then head back to California. 

I am not a huge fan of this idea and feel that they would be safer just staying with my brother and riding out the storm. However, my father is bound and determined to go back to his home. He wants to do this the weekend of April 17. Now, he has a Urostomy pouch and we will have to make several stops on the way back so he can dump his bag. He is 82 years old and my mom is 79. Of course mid-April is being predicted as the time as everything really begins to hit hard until mid May when it should start to go down. I am trying to figure out ways to convince them to wait.

Just wondering, am I off in my thinking? Please feel free to chime in!

Thanks,

Ready

It's your Dad's ostomy bag that is the real sticking point, IMO. If you could put them in the car, have enough food for the trip, have one (maybe two) place to fill up, preferably where it is already warm, like Yuma, and wear gloves and NOT HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE CAR FOR ANY OTHER REASON, I could see it working and maybe even being preferable. But going into a public restroom for the ostomy bag? No way. That is a direct line into his body. 800 miles without using a rest room for either of your parents? I could do it, you might be able to do it, but they could not. That alone would be a "No" to me.

By the same token, I have camping gear and a portable toilet. If I could get my elderly parents to their own home, where they feel safe in this mess by stopping at random sides of the road and setting up the portable toilet and pop up tent around it, I'd do that. BUT, only if I knew they could take care of themselves once they arrived home. If they could not, still a no go. That's just me, though.

[OffRoad]

Nerissa posted a link on the Stats thread that led me to this page. I am not a CDC fan. (for various reasons that are my own). I can only hope, though, that the  implication that the CDC would only use their defective tests and would not use WHO tests because the CDC didn't create them is incorrect and that there is a different reason the CDC would only use their own defective tests.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/

Why weren't the CDC and WHO working together? It like a competition instead of a collaborative effort. I still wonder that, and figure maybe I haven't found the right article yet.

[Nerissa]

Oops. Here it is.

https://www.ft.com/content/00312c48-6e87-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

[Airmid]

Sobering Corvid-19 facts from NY

I live in the epicenter of the Corvid-19 virus (NYC).
I have talked to a few friends around the country - and apparently in some areas the dire news about how serious the virus is has not been covered by their local news.

So just to give an update of the situation posted in the NY Times this morning...

In the 24 hours through 12 a.m. on Friday, 562 people — or one almost every two-and-a-half minutes — died from the virus in New York State, bringing the total death toll to nearly 3,000, double what it was only three days before. In the same period, 1,427 newly sickened patients poured into the hospitals — another one-day high

some hospitals have reported running out of body bags  and others have begun to plan for the unthinkable prospect of rationing care

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-death-toll.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Every county in our state has reported cases - and much of our state is very rural - where there are more cows per square mile than people.

I saw on TV last night where certain areas of the country apparently feel immune.
Reporters showed a church in Ohio where a large congregation gathered with no social distancing employed.

Even in NYC where we have gone from the frying pan to the fire - some members of the Orthodox Jewish community still continue to gather in large unprotected groups to attend funerals and weddings.  (more than 200 people).

I am sure there are countless examples of this type of behavior - but these are just 2 examples that hit the news.

I look at these instances and wonder what part of this crisis do you not understand?

NY State started with 1 Coronavirus case on March 1st. 
Between March 16 and 30, the number of cases in New York City jumped from 464 to 36,220
As of yesterday NYS has 102,863 positive cases of Corona Virus.
On April 2, 2010 we had 10,482 new cases overnight.

I saw on the news some states would like to stop people from NYC from traveling outside the state.
While I can understand this philosophy - and certainly encourage NYers to shelter in-place, I do not see this as the solution to halting the virus spread.

Every state has an airport.  Airlines are still flying in the US from state to state.
There are still international flights from the US to hot spots in Europe, Asia, Africa.
Truckers are still transporting essential goods from State to State.

Your area may not be effected yet.  But I stress the word "yet".
Rural areas, once effected, may suffer higher deaths per capita due to the fact that many rural hospitals do not have the resources to handle an epidemic.
Please don't think of yourself as immune.
Even if your state has not issued a stay-at home order, consider doing it for yourself.
It may save your life, and the lives of those close to you.

[Seahorse]

Airimid - Thanks for reiterating how important it is to shelter-in-place.
It really is an issue, and people need to take it seriously.

Stay safe and stay home!

Sea

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Good to hear from you Air! You really are in the center of the storm there in Manhattan. I'm sure you're taking the appropriate steps to stay safe and healthy but they're still learning new things about this virus and how it spreads so please be careful.

One thing I'd like to add is that the news reports always say NY but the reality is that at least 95% of the known cases in NY state are in the NYC/Long Island/Downstate area. That isn't surprising since about 65% of the state's total population lives in that area.

In the rural part of NY state where I live we have less than 20 known cases in my county, the county to the west has less than 10 and the county to the east of us is considered a hot spot with more than 50 known cases. So far none of our cows have been affected. 

If you compare number of known cases to total population, we have about 3 cases per 10,000 people while Manhattan has almost 52 cases per 10,000 people.

The fact that we have so few cases does not mean that it isn't being taking seriously here. Knowing what we do about the virus, we assume that everyone we see may be contagious with it. Almost everything is shut down and for most people the only time they go out is to go to the grocery store.

BTW, I'm hoping that I have some encouraging news for NYC. I watch the numbers closely and I've noticed for the past 2 days the number of hospital discharges have been slightly more than the number of hospital admissions.

Another note regarding the news reports. A lot of mention has been made about how Governor Cuomo is fighting to get ventilators and how there is a critical shortage of them. IMO, that's only partially true. Ventilators are life saving for patients with bacterial pneumonia. The ventilator keeps the patient alive while the antibiotics they're being given overcome the bacterial infection.

Ventilators don't have the same impact with Covid because Covid causes a viral pneumonia for which there is no cure. It's true that the patients who don't get put on a ventilator will probably die but what isn't widely publicized is that they're probably still going to die even after being put on a ventilator because there is no cure for the viral pneumonia that's destroying their lungs which then continues on to cause Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome followed by multiple organ shutdown. The numbers I'm seeing indicate that rougly 50 to 80% of those placed on vents die after about 1 to 3 weeks on the vent.

What we really need is more Personal Protective Equipment to protect our healthcare workers. Every patient in the hospital should be wearing a surgical mask to protect the healthcare workers from being infected by those patients. Every healthcare worker should have gloves, a gown, goggles and/or a face mask for working with Covid patients, and an N95 respirator. Our front line health care workers in hot spots like NYC are dealing with critical shortages of PPE, some healthcare workers are getting infected because of it, and some of them are dying and there is NO excuse for it.

Anyway, to reiterate Air's point, this is serious. Social distancing is a little painful but it works. Most people who get infected with Covid have an unpleasant 1 to 2 weeks but a lot of people are dying from it and social distancing can slow down and limit the spread of the disease.

One last comment. Masks. I'm not a big fan of people wearing masks to try to protect themselves from the virus because it doesn't work and because there has been a shortage of masks. Some virus droplets are small enough to go through an ordinary mask, most ordinary masks don't provide a good seal so the virus droplets can get in around the edges of the mask, and masks can become contaminated and spread the virus when improperly handled. I also don't like masks because I'm afraid people believe they're invincible once they put that mask on, resulting in more risky behavior like less social distancing.

But, they're starting to recommend that everyone wear a mask and I am a big fan of that idea. They're finding that a lot of people are infected and contagious and never show any symptoms. They're also finding that most people who are infected and become symptomatic have a day or two at the beginning where they are asymptomatic but contagious.

Me wearing a mask provides very limited protection against me catching the virus. Me wearing a mask if I'm asymptomatic but contagious can provide everyone around me with a lot of protection against me coughing, sneezing, or even just exhaling in their direction. If the authorities in your area start recommending wearing a mask, please wear one so that you won't be infecting everyone around you if you happen to be infected and don't know it.

[marvin4242]

Thanks MBIB that explanation about why everyone wearing mask is being recommended by some is very illuminating, I hadn’t thought of it from the viewpoint of the assumption that itt is to prevent the wearer from spreading, rather than catching the disease.

[Thunder]

MB, I've been trying to find anything on wearing gloves to protect yourself, because a read an article last week about it not helping, but I'll be darned if I can find it now.

People are starting to wear gloves here, not the surgical gloves but cloth gloves.
Hopefully they know they have to wash them frequently, but are they even worth wearing?
It just seems washing your hands after you've been in a store makes more sense.

Do you or anyone have any information on this?
Thank you if you do. 

[xyzcf]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention doesn’t recommend the general public use personal protective equipment, including gloves. Health departments across the Treasure Coast echo the recommendation.
Gloves just aren’t enough of a protection, according to the CDC. Wearing gloves is not a substitute for washing your hands.

Moreover, contamination during glove removal is common, the CDC says. Cleaning your hands after removing your gloves will help prevent the spread of COVID-19, the agency says.

https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/youre-probably-using-disposable-gloves-all-wrong-michigan-nurse-gives-tips.html

Washing your hands with soap and water actually destroys the membrane around the virus and destroys it. Wearing gloves, if not used properly could actually spread the virus if they are not removed and deposited properly.

We also need these supplies for front line workers.

[Thunder]

Thank you xyzcf, but they aren't wearing the surgical gloves.  Their like cotton gloves you wash.

I agree with you, you'd be more apt to spread the virus more with contaminated gloves.
I just wanted to give my sister some article on why they are not a good idea so she can read why, not just believe me.   
She thinks they are telling us to wear them. 

(I will read the article you posted)

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I see while I was writing this xyz posted a great response. I'm going to go ahead and post this anyway.

Thunder, we wear gloves on the ambulance. They're an important component of PPE. But they're disposable. We throw them away after every patient, we're careful not to touch our faces while we're wearing them, and we've been taught how to properly remove them so that we don't become contaminated by anything that's on the gloves. Most people wearing gloves in public are doing more harm by wearing them than good.

You should watch the nurses in the ER. They put on gloves before going into a patient's room, do what they need to do, remove the gloves when they leave the room, then use some of the hand sanitizer that can be found in a wall mounted dispenser outside every room. That's a good model for wearing gloves. They go through a lot of gloves each day. I don't even want to think about cloth gloves and infectious diseases. Yuck!!!

Most people would be best served by avoiding toughing their faces and washing their hands and/or using hand sanitizer regularly. And, most importantly, social distancing. I don't mean to minimize the imortance of hand washing but they believe the primary means of transmission for this virus is through the air, not through surface contact.

I keep a container of hand sanitizer setting in the console in my car. When I'm out, I avoid touching anything that I don't have to touch and I avoid touching my face. When I get back in my car, I apply hand sanitizer, then I close my car door and put on my selt belt. When I get home, I remove my shoes and coat, wash my hands, change into my inside clothes, and then wash my hands again. If I'm coming back from an ambulance call where I've been in close proximity to people who are sick with Covid I will take a shower before putting on my inside clothes but otherwise, unless somebody was coughing or sneezing on me while I was out I don't bother with the shower.

If I've been shopping, cold stuff gets put in the fridge or freezer. Everything else is immediatley removed from the bags and set out on a table I have next to my back door. I leave it sitting there overnight before putting it away. I know they say the virus can be detected up to 72 hours on some surfaces but that's under ideal (worst case) conditions and they don't say that the virus is still infectious after all of that time so I think leaving my groceries untouched overnight is probably a sufficient safeguard. Maybe Marvin will join in. I believe he mentioned he is a biologist.

BTW, I just checked the latest numbers for coronavirus in NY. Yesterday, April 3rd, there were 1,095 new hospital admissions and 1,592 discharges!!!

[Seahorse]

Also, as MBIB has stated, the CDC is recommending wearing "cloth" masks every time you go out - to protect contamination occurring from the asymptomatic carrier, whether that be me or someone I contact.

You can make them very simply - evidently t-shirt material is pretty good.
I had a friend who says a coffee filter imbetween the layers helps.
IDK about that, but I think anything to cover your mouth and nose.

Of course - needs to be handled then WASH YOUR HANDS when you get home.

[Rising Phoenix]

I use rubber gloves when I have to go shopping and I use hand sanitizer on my gloves when I get in the car, remove them,  then hand sanitizer on my hands then I shut the door. I tend to do the same as ready. If I need something straight away, I use an anti bac wipe or wash the bag if I can then wash my hands. I have a separate pair of rubber gloves for post and parcel delivery which get washed. I do use a mask when out but it is a thick ski mask. I have no idea if it helps but I use it and then leave outside for several days if I can, if not overnight and then it goes in the wash. It covers a lot of my face and Velcro together behind my head. I only leave the house if absolutely necessary and usually for only collecting live food for our lizard.

I just hope I’m doing the right thing to protect my children and everyone else.
It is interesting to read from those that know more and understand figures etc.

Stay safe xx

[MyBrainIsBroken]

This is about the best I could find on short notice Thunder. BTW, we've been seeing piles of discarded gloves on the ground next to the shopping cart corrals at the local Walmart. It's pretty disgusting.

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/2020/04/02/cdc-doesnt-recommend-wearing-disposable-gloves-go-grocery-shopping/5093424002/

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/news/2020/04/02/should-you-wear-gloves-when-you-leave-your-home-

[Seahorse]

And --  For you crafty ones out there - from the CDC:

How to sew a face mask!

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html

Good luck!
Good weekend project!

Sea

[Thunder]

MB I do exactly what you do.  I sanitize me and my car when I get back in it.
I use Clorox wipes to wipe down everything I buy, even boxes food. Then I wipe down the counters, doorknobs and toss the grocery bags away...then go wash my hands.

I agree hand washing and distancing are the best things to do.

I saw a funny cartoon on FB, this dog is telling his owner.."It's for your own good, you need to stop touching your face."  The man had an animal cone around his neck.   

Thanks everyone. 
Stay in, stay safe.  MB it's wonderful of you to help out with emergencies, just keep being careful, my friend.

[Thunder]

Seems we were all writing at the same time.   

Thank you both for the articles, I will read them.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thunder, I saw the same meme!

[marvin4242]

Such great information, thank you all. All I can contribute is relaying the studies, same ones MBIB that you probably know about. That under very high virus load (not the typical kind of exposure/load), under ideal circumstances, on SOME surfaces like stainless steel enough virus remains viable to be potentially infectious for 72 hours, but even the study said this was a worst case scenario. The material makes a big differences, including how long the virus stays in moisture. So droplets obviously are more of an issue.

But 24 hours is a pretty good guidelines. Everything is odds and statistics and its all about maximizing the odds in your favor. Keep in mind that covering surfaces with soapy water and leaving it on for a minute or two should also do a pretty good job of destroying the virus. Disinfectant wipes aren’t as effective as people may think, as you have to wet the surface and leave it on for minutes (5 or more) from what I have read.

[OffRoad]

I use Playtex latex gloves because they are thicker and I can wash them just like my hands, and if im out, place them in a waterproof bag, then open the top of the bag and  toss the whole thing into my washing machine on sanitize (for the heat) and use them again. It also would protect anyone else from MY germs that would be trapped inside the gloves.  Since I only need them when I get gas or have to pick up grocery delivery bags from my front porch, that works for me. I haven't needed to venture to the grocery store yet, since I have always shopped for the Zombie Apocalypse. My freezer is not yet bare.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thanks Marvin. It does sound like we're reading the same studies but I appreciate hearing that you, with your more advanced background in Biology, are drawing pretty much the same conclusions from them that I am.

OR, you're pretty sharp so I have no doubt that whatever method you're using makes perfectly good sense. Same way with Thunder. I'm happy to hear so many on here are taking proper precautions. We've all had to deal with far more than our share of misfortune.

I was looking at NY's numbers again and noticed that ICU admissions, while high, have been relatively steady for the past 4 or 5 days. No big increases but no real decreases either. Still, right now the lack of increases will pass for good news!

The daily death rate is still increasing but that isn't surprising. That will be a lagging indicator. Seeing that level off or start dropping will really be a big deal.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

A different viewpoint from an immunologist who did post doctoral work at Walter Reed Army Medical Center.

https://aapsonline.org/cornoavirus-covid-19-public-health-apocalypse-or-panic-hoax-and-anti-american/?fbclid=IwAR2fWVQQCmPGA3mqiF68Ne-RZo3k4B8Hza4ntDRMHHOz4CbQRiIaPD8K4ds

[marvin4242]

MBIB: that article is a deeply concerning and uncaring viewpoint. The conclusions that “its not a big deal to let it run wild” has already been disproven in Italy and Spain as compared to S Korea, China and Germany which have much lower death rates. The facts of the disease and epidemiology are correct, but then that is extended to an argument that says let the old and vulnerable die in order to minimize economic damage. To me this is where the crux of so much human suffering and cruelty lies: the question of what do we value most in our societies.

If we value optimal economic well being and wealth then the article is correct. If we value well being of people then it is completely off the mark. We have to ask ourselves what is the point of money and wealth? Up to a point it is a direct correlation to safety, well being, food, shelter, and health. No one in the US living anywhere near minimum wage has achieved that. That number on the average for a family is somewhere around $70-80K mark (varies widely by region). So what is point of money and wealth after that? To accumulate possessions? To get better things? Psychologist who study measures of happiness show that happiness ratings increase up to around that point (for obviously reasons that safety and shelter are important to well being) but flatten out after that and do not rise significantly in the long term.

What I believe Covid-19 is showing about the US is how threadbare our social system has become. Vast majority of people live paycheck to paycheck and any disruption is catastrophic. We have minimal or non existent social support systems, and they are completely different state by state so we have no uniformity. Our healthcare system is patchwork of various non coordinate networks that are showing their weakness compared to a centralized one. And a lot of people still can’t afford quality healthcare. So in a way for the non vulnerable the damage is coming from the economic devastation. That is not an epidemiological problem, that is a societal problem.

You have to ask yourself if we are the “strongest,” “richest,” “the best” what does that mean. Shouldn’t the strongest society in the world easily withstand the stress of a weak pandemic virus? We definitely have the wealth and resources to support our citizens while we make sure people don’t die needlessly until we carefully develop herd immunity. We have to be willing and able to have a fair and functional society. We are able, but it seems we are not fully willing.

What does that say about us? Societies and groups have lived through wars with massive devastation and have made decisions for the greater good. In a way this virus is something that is not in that scale. Yet some are arguing we should sacrifice lives in order to protect economic well being. The correct answer is to use our vast wealth to support and help the economically vulnerable, save as many lives as we can until we develop herd immunity. That is happening in countries in Europe and UK. If we do we can look back afterwards and feel like as human beings we were stronger as a group rather than standing as individuals.

Imagine if we lived in a society where most people could afford to save three to six months of their expenses from their income. The economic devastation that is happening to most people who live paycheck to paycheck would not happen.

[Nerissa]

The article is quite odd.  He writes:   “Italy has a third world medical system with good pasta, red wine and gelato”   

He also says Italians smoke and drink, but then goes on to say Italy has a higher  number of elderly People .  That’s true - Italians have a life expectancy of 83 while Americans live, on average, until 78.

And then he spends the last part railing against closure of church services.

Oh my.

In any case, surely herd immunity is what is being achieved everywhere  by default until a vaccine is found?  The World is just trying to slow it down in order to cope as best they can.

Thanks for posting different viewpoints Though Brain.

[Milly]

Having read the article, I feel I must stand up for my country.

My view is that the article was written by a badly informed person. I suspect also that the author's interest in herd community is simply because he does have money and doesn't want to lose it.

I will only refer to his statements about Italy:

First and foremost, it does not have a third world medical care system.

There is a lot more to Italy than its wonderful pasta and gelato. I suspect the author has never been here or he would know.

He claims that northern Italy has the largest number of Chinese in Europe. This is incorrect. The UK and France have more than Italy.

He insinuates that Northern Italy, with its largest number of Chinese in Europe, is the cause of the spread of the virus in Italy.

It is now believed here (through scientific research) that the virus entered Italy through two paths simultaneously: through a Chinese person arriving from China and through an Italian who got it in another European country, probably Germany. It was then spread in Italy by Italians.

In fact, the second largest Chinese population of Italy is in Tuscany, where I live. We have the largest Chinese community (as in China town) in Italy, and they have not had one case of coronavirus. We have been watching them intently. What the Chinese did was to self isolate long before it became mandatory. They also have a habit of wearing masks any way and did so right away. They kept their children out of school before the schools closed here and also kept their elderly at home.

The author claims we are at risk because we are a country of smokers and drinkers. I wonder where he gets his information from. Smoking: Italians do smoke more than Americans, but as much as many other European countries. It doesn't seem to stop them from aging more than any one else. Maybe their health care manages to take care of them?

Drinking in Italy is very mild, being mainly wine and beer drinking. We are one of the countries that consumes the least. We do not have problems with binge drinking. We drink with food.

My impression of this author is that he sounds closed minded and prejudice. Possibly, he has never ventured out of his own country. If his information on Italy is anything to go by, there's a big chance that his other information is unreliable, too. He is the kind of person who likes to joke about other cultures because he presumes that he is safe, that nobody from that other culture is going to read what he's writing. He makes statements as if they are facts. When someone does that there is a danger that his words can be taken as truths and these prejudicial claims are believed. And he doesn't just insult Italy.

I see lots of red flags here.

[Thunder]

Milly I agree with everything you said.  I liked some of what he said, but not about Italy.
I'd like to know where he got his information from.   

Do you know Italy is now ranted the number two healthiest country?  Spain was first this year.

According the the Business Insider first place was just out of reach for Italy in this year's ranking with the Mediterranean nation well known for its great weather, plentiful natural wonders, and some of the world's best, and seemingly healthiest, food.

Research has shown that Mediterranean diets are among the world's healthiest and Italy maintaining a high life expectancy as well as boasting a so-called "Blue Zone" for high quality of life in Sardinia. 

Also they don't drink or smoke anymore than a lot of other places.  That's hogwash!

[xyzcf]

I skimmed the article last night and found it deeply disturbing.

I will continue to listen to the experts around the world who are basing the measures of trying to keep the number of serious cases to a manageable amount, so that our front line workers and the supplies we have can be used to try and save as many lives as possible.

I find that the research of what worked in previous pandemics like the Spanish flu, and implementing those measures makes a great deal of common sense.

The most comforting words I hear is "this will come to an end" and "it will not last forever".

As for his criticism of closing the Catholic Church...he is misguided with his criticism of American Bishops not having enough "faith" as it was Pope Francis himself, the leader of the Catholic church in the entire world who has implemented that churches  not hold masses during this time. Previous times in history, it has clearly been shown that cities that closed churches had lower mortality rates.

For indeed, and I am personally very serious about my faith, my prayers do not need to be said in a building.

Although different ideas are "interesting"...I was upset by reading this article.....I'm having trouble anyway and yesterday was a bad day for me. 

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I apologize to those who were offended by the article. That wasn't my intention. I didn't mean to upset anyone. I'm afraid I didn't even see the potential. I guess I can be a bit clueless sometimes.

April 4th in NY new hospital admissions dropped to 574, hospital discharges increased to 1709, ICU admissions were 250 after running between 300 and 400 for the past week. The numbers see to be heading in the right direction.

NY state unemployment claims are 2700% higher than last year at this time with hundreds of thousands of claims filed last week. Our local hardware store announced yesterday that they are closing indefinitely because one of their employees had contact with somebody who tested positive for Covid 19. One of our local restaurants has also closed with no idea whether they will reopen.

One of the newly unemployed is my granddaughter who is worried that she won't have the money to return to nursing school this fall now that she has lost her part time job. Many of her friends have similar concerns.

Registration for fall classes begins a week from tomorrow. Our administration is afraid we're going to see a significant drop in enrollment. A lot of our students come from low income families.

[Thunder]

MB,

No problem.  I like reading different thoughts on this virus, even if I don't always agree with them.  Gets your brain working. 

I didn't disagree with everything he said.

Thanks for the updates!

[MyBrainIsBroken]

It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed.

17 min ago
Deaths over past few days dropping "for the first time" in New York, governor says

The number of deaths over the past few days has been dropping “for the first time," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today during a press conference.

The significance of that is “too early to tell” he added.

Cuomo added that ICU admissions are also down, daily intubations are down “slightly” and the hospital discharge rate is “way up” and that’s “great news.”

He said there is a "shift to Long Island" adding "upstate New York is basically flat… as Long Island grows the percentage of cases in NYC has reduced."

The total number of intubations are down across the state, Cuomo said.

As of April 4, there were about 316 people intubated in the hospital, that number is down from 351 reported the day before.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-05-20/index.html

[OffRoad]

I liked the article, MBIB. He had a lot of very good points that sadly were negated when he used his own opinions mixed in with facts. There is no need to apologize for presenting differing views.

Does it strike anyone odd that Spain and Italy, two of the "healthiest" countries were some of the hardest hit? Why is that do you suppose? I wonder if being so healthy means people don't usually get sick  therefore no herd immunity? Or that they weren't prepared for being not healthy. That's was just a thought.

Marvin said: "If we value optimal economic well being and wealth then the article is correct. If we value well being of people then it is completely off the mark." I don't understand the statement " If we value well being of people then it is completely off the mark"  I think this depends on how one defines the well being of people. To me, the well being of people is not simply keeping them from getting a disease that might be nothing more than like a common cold, or might very well kill them. The death tolls from people dying driving a car ( on average 3,700 people lose their lives every day on the roads. https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/ ) or the flu(estimates between 29,000 and 59,000 by mid March this year) https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year are not inconsiderable, and no one panics about those every year.  The well being of people encompasses not only their health, but their quality of life. Quality of life can be freedom to do as they choose, the ability to support their family, satisfaction in the work they do, being able to keep a roof over their head,  contact, even if six feet away, with other human beings, getting out into the sunshine, or out of the city and into the country even six feet away from people. Do you know despite the fact that I have been in non contact with any human being for three weeks, I'm not allowed to take a drive in my own car by my own self unless I am going to a germ laden store for supplies? Driving alone on a backroad is a sanity saver for me. How does this make sense or give me "well being"?

The people who have had Covid 19 and have recovered are now immune. They could live their lives in a normal fashion, help other people,  make money, go to jobs or replace workers in essential jobs who fear for their own safety because they have not had Covid 19, volunteer, be productive members of society. Except they can't because no one has thought that far ahead.

What IS the well being of people? It's not just health.

[Nerissa]

Does it strike anyone odd that Spain and Italy, two of the "healthiest" countries were some of the hardest hit? Why is that do you suppose? I wonder if being so healthy means people don't usually get sick  therefore no herd immunity? Or that they weren't prepared for being not healthy. That's was just a thought.

I expect that in the fullness of time, and after investigation,  clearer explanations will emerge for this, but the obvious one is that society and styles of socialising and living  in Spain and Italy  countries  are quite distinct from many other countries.  There is far more inter familial and inter generational living arrangements and mixing than in Sweden for example, or the Netherlands or The US.  A lot more.   They are also more  tactile than people many other countries.    This social aspect of life has major advantages under normal circumstances , but not right now.

I lived in Singapore during SARS in 2003.  The way they dealt with a less communicable but more deadly respiratory virus was exemplary, but it is an Island/City state of 4 million and the citizens  are very obedient.  We observed many instructions, including writing children’s temperatures in specially made books each morning and sending them to school to be checked.  And they were actually checked daily - it wasn’t just window dressing.  .  Public transport and school buses were disinfected daily;  temperature scanners were at the airport.   people were employed to disinfect lift buttons, door knobs etc.  Tracing contacts and testing and isolating were meticulous. 

I went out very little as I had three small children and was fearful for them but we felt very well protected by a government which was and is hot  on science.  It needed very compliant citizens though, and the small population  probably helped a great deal too as it was easier to keep tabs on them.  There was absolutely no dissent that I recall about following every edict.  It is not a libertarian country and Asia generally is more ‘collective’ than the west in their approach to life.  Had there been dissent, some kind of consequence would have ensued - legal, or community based.

Cultural mores and consequent ways of living and behaving differ enormously  and I think contribute hugely during these events as do economic and intellectual  strengths

[xyzcf]

I wonder if being so healthy means people don't usually get sick  therefore no herd immunity?

COVID 19 was first identified in December 2019. It is a novel virus, one that had previously not been identified anywhere in the world.

You cannot really build up herd immunity to a virus that has never been recognized before in humans.

Nerissa, I was a nurse in Toronto in 2003 during SARS. Quarantine measures were initiated very early on and people compiled. Temperatures were taken and any household or close contacts were immediately put into quarantine.

It seemed to have some kind of effect because the the first case was identified Feb 23 2003 and by June 2003 it was completely gone. It never reappeared. There was no treatment and no vaccine. I am not saying this will happen with COVID but the drastic measures taken in the places where SARS did appear stopped the virus from spreading and eventually it went away.

[lawprofessor]

"The people who have had Covid 19 and have recovered are now immune."

Do we know this?  I'm not certain.  I read an article that in China a reasonably concerning percentage of those who had tested negative after having the virus became re-infected when returned to daily life conditions living among others who were positive. 

Perhaps it was a false negative?  But 20% false negatives would be a huge amount I'd think.

And 1 day is just one day, maybe a blip, maybe an indicator.  But not statistically relevant yet as to the numbers out of New York.  Although, it was a pleasant bit of hope shined in a sea of bad news.

Coming from a country with stricter ideas of what the well being of people is defined as, I find the sacrifices I am asked to make, to be a small price to pay.  Too much the focus in the US is individual rights in this situation, forgetting that but for the grace of God, go I.  In other countries we are not asked to stay home, we are told.  If you violate the order, you're not given kudos by a bunch of others, and if sickened by your own actions you cannot later scream for help from the government or hospitals.  You pay the price.  The focus isn't on right to do an activity but on duty to help others.  It's sad the people who assert their rights at the possible expense of others health.  I don't find it to be a very mature way of thinking or conducting one's self frankly. 

I found the article and talk of herd immunity unpersuasive and poorly argued.  We did not use herd immunity in other situations.  Polio and TB for example that I am aware of?  Why would we embrace it in this situation?

Lp

[Milly]

Good point, LP.

The number of dead from the coronavirus are not the same as your average flu. Nor do hospitals find every winter that their ICU units are not enough to cope with those seriously ill to the point that they have to decide between one patient and the other. This is happening in all countries affected by the coronavirus.

There are several reasons why Italy might have had such high numbers, one of them being they were the first in the Western world to deal with this pandemic. Italy's numbers might not be the worst once this virus goes around the world.

Whether the virus is no 'worse' than the common flu has no relevance to the coronavirus, because this one is 2.5 times more contagious than any normal flu. This is the problem. Because of the high number of serious cases at once, the medical staff are getting it and dying of it, too. These are people we need to help all our sick with normal critical conditions such as strokes, accidents, heart attacks, cancer, clots, bronchial asthma, I could go on.....

Two months staying inside for everyone's benefit including our own is not a violation of our freedom as far as I'm concerned, it's a responsible act. Where the countries were very strict like Singapore, the death rate has been much lower. To me that is something to be grateful for.

To me being told to stay inside until this virus is over is the same as saying don't go swimming when there is high tide. That wouldn't feel like a violation of my freedom. It's protection.

[Thunder]

"Two months staying inside for everyone's benefit including our own is not a violation of our freedom as far as I'm concerned, it's a responsible act."

Thank you, Milly.  I so agree with you, now if we could just get our president on board and stop allowing state governors to make that decision.

We need stronger leadership in the US.  Not someone who is concerned about poll numbers, or getting reelected.

Do what is best for the American people.  That is your job.

[marvin4242]

LP: agree that staying inside is a minor inconvenience and that we need to be more focus on our obligations and relationships to others rather than just “me.”

But the concept of herd immunity is not controversial and Covid-19 is a variant of a class of viruses that are relatively well understood. Obviously like anything else, specially in science, there are no absolute answers until and even now there is data being collected. But something as simple as being re-infected would require a significant mutation or multiple varied strains of the same virus, and there have been many variants already sequenced and the virus actually seems to relatively stable. This would mean that immune response will not be fooled until and unless there is more changes. In a rapidly changing virus this would happen in short period of time in a population but nothing so far shows this about Covid-19. Also it is good to ignore small number reports of an event. First the first few are now relatively sure to have been testing error, and if the virus really was able to reinfect you would see a very large rate of disease returning to those who had it. It would not be subtle.

We have always had herd immunity in the past. Unfortunately before vaccinations it took the form of significant percentages of people dying out in high mortality rate diseases (and Covid-19 is not high mortality, not downplaying the deaths just a numerical fact), leaving behind the ones with immunity whether they got sick or managed to fight it off. Also Covid-19 is not a very strong vector, it has a large spread but most people show no symptoms either because their immune system fights it off or it is not damaging enough to them. That doesn’t mean that if its not harming the person it is still not a spread vector. Which in an ironic way makes it spread more easily, a deadly disease will incapacitate a person and they don’t tend to be as efficient as a spread vector.

And in case of far deadlier diseases we would need to do everything possible to prevent spread, much more than we are now. I guess this is the main thing that puzzles me: this is not a virulent disease on the scale of things. If it was a virus with 30% mortality and people reacted this way they would be mass deaths in the US. Imagine the behaviour of people and talks of “grandmothers would die so their kids futures are not economically damaged” and “rights” if 30% of people who contracted a disease would die.  Because if the number of non symptomatic people holds up (sometimes up to 50%) the final death rate of this disease may fall well before 1% (around 0.5%) by the time we have all the data.

[Milly]

Thank you for the scientific explanations, Marvin.

[lawprofessor]

Thank you for the explanation Marvin.  I suppose I have an in-born distrust of government numbers coming from a country that is notorious for being untruthful with its statistics on everything from production to births to crime to income to illnesses.

I wouldn't say I find herd immunity controversial, simply that it seems an outdated approach to a pandemic such as this where so much is unknown and unproven.  I would have hoped that in a country that claims to be great, the best of the best, strongest, with a great healthcare system, herd immunity would not be suggested as a solution to a pandemic except as a last resort.  To be told or have a large number of people seem to suggest that economic health and the right to do non-essential hobby activities as we please is as important as physical health and giving others less fortunate a better chance to live seems like a de-evolution rather than proof of greatness. 

To me, it smacks of an immaturity and self-centeredness that also gave birth to MLC and the societal acceptance of those behaviors.  I question if on one hand one can carp on about individual rights to do as one pleases for hobby activities that increase our ever widening definition of well being while at the same time railing on about spouses who are asserting that they must do MLC activities in order to fulfill their newly widened definition of well being. 

Lp

[lawprofessor]

Oh, I forgot to ask, did anyone read the news story about the Tiger in the Bronx zoo that caught the virus from an infected worker? 

Don't forget to protect your pets ladies and gentlemen! 

Lp

[UrsaMajor]

Oh, I forgot to ask, did anyone read the news story about the Tiger in the Bronx zoo that caught the virus from an infected worker? 

Don't forget to protect your pets ladies and gentlemen! 

Lp

From the article I read this morning, 6 of them are now sick there, the original tiger and all her "pen mates." First known animal infection in the  US and first known transfer from human to animal...

[marvin4242]

LP: you are absolutely correct in that if “herd immunity” was an approach it would be pretty insane specially in any western country with resources. As i wrote before its not an approach, rather what must happen in humans with a novel disease/virus. The herd immunity is best achieved in modern medicine by vaccines, and that is what we have been doing in modern times and most of us take for granted how important it is (with some exceptions I won’t go into).

Right now we will need around one year minimum for vaccine. So the only other way is by exposure. The best scientific approach to minimize deaths is to: 1) Control the infection rate in the non vulnerable population to make sure we don’t overwhelm hospitals, 2) make sure to keep isolated the vulnerable until we have vaccines. Controlled spread is best done with testing and isolation of the exposed to control spread and the tests are not quite ready yet. If they can get the at home antibody tests efficacy up from 50% the plan in UK is to have a test you can order at low cost from Amazon or Boots, an if you shout you already have antibodies then you know you are safe to move around and not spread the disease. The antigen tests can be used to detect new carriers and do contact tracing and isolation to control spread. This combination should work very well until vaccines are ready.

And that is what most countries are doing to various degrees of success. Of course US is not doing anything coordinated, pretended there was no problem for almost 60 days and essentially has dismantled most of the things that would be used as central coordination and knowledge. Even CDC is no longer living up to its previous performance. By contrast S Korea and Singapore had already in place systems read to go from the SARS epidemic and you can see how well they are doin.

[UrsaMajor]

A new Thread needs to be created for this topic please...

[lawprofessor]

Ah, so vaccine is considered part of creating herd immunity?  Rather than as the article indicated a separate approach to creating a group of people with immunity weeding out those who fall.

I have heard nothing about an at home test being developed as you describe.  In the Midwest I don't think that has been reported on widely.  I hear daily complaints from people as to how their rights are being infringed, how this is all a media overblown nonsense to threaten Trump's reelection, how those who disagree are crazy and unpatriotic, un-American.  I go to work and have to notify families of prisoners that their family member is sick or deceased but then answer phone calls from those who wish to file cases about the infringement of their rights to go fishing, to have a party, to run their non-essential business.  And calls complaining that if this were truly a crisis, the list of essential businesses would not be so extensive.  And the last few days the questions are coming on where to get malaria pills because Trump said he would take them perhaps.  And now the cases come from preachers who are demanding their right to hold Easter services since Trump said he was considering allowing services even though the state has already said absolutely not asking if this is religious persecution.

Truthfully, i would say I feel as if I'm back at home country with the propaganda, but then I can honestly say, in the home country at least we didnt/don't actually believe the propaganda even though we could repeat it as necessary.  The claims of my administration is great, I'm doing great, I have no responsibility for negatives, it's all someone else's fault, you must talk nicely to me to get what you want.  All that is familiar propaganda to those from my country, the cult of personality.  What concerns me is that a large number of people seem to believe blindly and have no ability to discern political propaganda.  In my country, as well, there is respect for scientists and professionals.  Here, I do not see that as necessarily true as I watch the tug of war between Trump and Fauci over the message. 

My state county has 42 only positive but we have a low population of humans versus cows out here compared to the city.  Anyway, thank you for the discussion but I must get moving with my day. As always the more I learn the more I find out I really don't know much. 

Lp

[xyzcf]

New thread:

https://mlcforum.theherosspouse.com/index.php?topic=11436.new#new