[MyBrainIsBroken]

I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of COVID 19 nor am I arguing against the measures being taken to slow down its transmission. But what is interesting is that we don't know how many undiagnosed cases there already are of COVID 19. Because of a lack of testing, all that we're really seeing are the serious cases.

If you look at the nmbers for serious flu cases this year, 280,000, vs. the number of deaths, 16,000, that's almost 6 deaths per 100 hospitalized which is far higher than the current suspected COVID 19 death rate. Furthermore, while COVID 19 so far seems to mostly kill the elderly and those with preexisting conditions, the flu kills people from all age groups, including many young, healthy children and adults.

Some of the news media have commented on the difference between COVID 19 in South Korea, where the death rate is relatively low, and COVID 19 in Italy, where the death rate is quite high. The biggest difference between the two seems to be that South Korea has aggressively tested people for COVID 19. It's been pointed out by the news media that this aggressive testing has made it possible for South Korea to identify those who have the disease and isolate them, thus better controlling transmission of the disease. What hasn't been mentioned is that it has also given South Korea a more accurate picture of the true death rate, including both serious and mild cases, which in South Korea seems to be much closer to the death rate for influenza.

Regardless, influenza and COVID 19 are both serious infectious diseases, the measures being implemented to fight COVID 19 are effective against both diseases, and the health care systems in most countries seem to be ill prepared to handle a large influx of new patients with either disease, so I hope everyone will follow the suggested guidelines and stay healthy. And I hope everyone's financial health isn't too badly impacted by this situation.

Thanks for giving me a forum where I can share my thoughts.

[serenity]

Thank you MB for some wise words amidst all the fake stories and panic

All the media has done is caused wide spread panic and the result of that are empty supermarket shelves and members of staff being attacked by members of the public!

It is worrying but as far as I can see more people have died of normal flu!

Take care everyone and stay safe

X

[Marchingforward]

I'm going to add something here, and take it with a grain of salt because I had no official testing. I am a therapist. I saw a kiddo who came in sick in January. Her parents told me she had had a fever the day before. She had a little sniffle and a slight cough. Her father had returned from China the week before. (we weren't really talking about COVID-19 at the time). About 5 days later I became ill. It was on a Wednesday because I was with clients and I remember having to cancel my afternoon. I had massive chills, ran a fever between 101-102 for two days, had a killer headache and a bit of a cough. After 2 days, the fever broke and I started feeling better. Took me about a week to get back to my normal energy level. Am I saying I had it? Maybe. Obviously I wasn't tested, but the timing was right and seeing as the kiddo's father had been in China.... I guess why I'm putting this out here is because we don't truly know the number of people that have been infected, so it's hard to know the morality rate, etc. I'm just complying with the recommendations because it seems prudent to do so.

[xyzcf]

Please do not downplay this.

There is a vaccine for Influenza. Influenza's "patterns" are well known by the scientific community.

You can shorten the severity and the duration of influenza with Tamiful.

This is a new virus, one that little is known about. There are no TREATMENTS for this virus. No VACCINE.

Our hospitals are already functioning at capacity in normal times. They cannot handle the number of critically ill cases that will need ventilators. Triage will occur which means that doctors will make decisions about who is going to live and who is going to die.

Get your factual information from the CDC or WHO. Dr. Anthony Fauci from the NIH KNOWS his stuff.

Please DO NOT brush this off as not as dangerous as influenza.


https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[Nerissa]

The problem is not simply the proportion of people who die from it.  It is that there is no immunity to it, whereas there is considerable immunity to flu both from natural means and from vaccinations.

So our medical system is swamped.

‘Normal’ flu is  by no means harmless, but it affects a limited number of people each year.  Those st the front line - the a and e personnel, the anaesthetists, the surgeons are genuinely alarmed.  If my child has a ‘normal’ asthma attack and needs a ventilator, s/he will be in competition with a very large number of other people.  The same goes for if s/he needs an icu bed after a car accident or a stroke or appendicitis or any other reason.  Psychiatrists I know are told they will be taken away from Psychiatric work and put into A and E to shore up the need.   A friend who is an anaesthetist at a university hospital said we are imminently going to have 100 people needing an icu bed and only one bed available.

It’s the sheer volume rather than the severity.  Bird flu was far  more fatal  but  far harder to catch.  If it’s your parents or relatives who are not given the bed because someone else is deemed more deserving, how will you feel?  The person who questioned whether a few lives here and there were worth the economic damage isn’t thinking that she or her loved ones are going under, I assume - that or else she’s An acolyte of Trump.

There’s  plenty of sound information (as much as is known at this stage) if we care to look to the correct sources.  There is disagreement but that is because this is a dynamically
Changing scenario and anyway, scientists question and disagree and debate.  That’s what they are supposed to do.

[forthetrees]

It all comes down to math.

0 % of the population has immunity to covid 19 whereas cautious people have had the option to get a flu vaccine for years.
So when comparing the death rates between covid and flu, you have to use denominators that differ greatly. Madrid is now expecting an 80% infection rate. If you apply that to the US population and then take 20% of that, about 53 million folks may very well need hospital care. We do not have the personnel nor equipment to tend to the number of expected sick people. Add to that all the illness and accidents that happen when not in a pandemic and we are going to be overwhelmed. When the CDC is telling healthcare workers that they can use bandanas as a desperate measure, it means we are in for hard times.

[3Boys4Me]

Thanks for the well wishes all. It’s no fun, but I have great friends and family who will run time pick up necessities and drop on the door step. MLC H even (through S14 who is pretty sick) offered yesterday and again this morning to bring anything we need.

S15s GF’s family is quarantined until March 26, the dad got it, but so far not the wife or either GF15 or her little brother 12.  The grandfather was asked to participate in a human trial, experimental so offered only if the patient is essentially going to die - well, Grandpa is responding! Wednesday night they didn’t think he would live through the night, amazing answer to prayers - the side effects are not yet know, but he is talking and responding. Thanks all for the prayers

[stillbaffled]

I believe we have about 60 reported cases of the virus in Minnesotan most all of them were travel related, not person to person.

Yes, Thunder...yesterday we had 60.  Today we have 89.  I have also been told we have over 300 samples frozen waiting to be tested because we can't get enough testing kits. 

It's going to keep going up.  I have to go to work but my building has only 3 other employees (offices quite a distance apart) and we need to be there to facilitate distance learning for students.  We've not been allowed to do it from home but it's probably going to be mandated before too long. 

Our gyms, restaurants (doing to go orders only), libraries, churches, salons, schools.....all are shut down.  The grocery store in my small town still has most items available, with the exception of toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and clorox wipes. 

I do not take it lightly - I had pneumonia many times as a infant/toddler/child and I also use an inhaler if my asthma kicks in.  I've done all I can to lead a healthy lifestyle as an adult but if a respiratory virus hits me, I'm likely to end up in a hospital.  My lungs are compromised. 

It's a good thing I've had a lot of practice these last 4 years learning how to be alone - it has come in handy. 

Stay the course, HS peeps. 

[OffRoad]

The person who questioned whether a few lives here and there were worth the economic damage isn’t thinking that she or her loved ones are going under, I assume - that or else she’s An acolyte of Trump.

This was unfair. Not everyone runs on the emotional "what-if it were their loved one who was ill".  It's OK if you happen to, but unfair to judge those who may not or accuse them of being an acolyte of anyone because they run on the "What-if the economy is trashed, people lose their house, their jobs, their livelihood and die from stress related illness or become more prone to COVID 19 due to being unable to take care of themselves and their family". There is no requirement that we have to agree with each other.

[Finding Joy]

Surviving-I also believe the virus already went through my household in January.  We tested negative for the flu and mine turned into pneumonia.  I was sick for 6 weeks, only down for two.

The two of us with asthma are the two that really struggled, the others only had it a week. 

Being in an at risk group, yet being overall healthy, I have to say this was way worse than the flu.  Though I was never tested, so nothing is confirmed.