[Airmid]

Marvin  - I have often used the analogy of a terminal illness when it comes to MLC.
Pancreatic cancer  has terrible odds for survival - yet it doesn't mean that no one survives.

For the few that do survive - the cure rate is 100% - yes - but the over all rate is 4%.

Taking a look at a lottery example - someone wins every drawing (usually) - yet the chances are slim for the average lottery ticket buyer.

The issue here is - what are you risking in order to possibly win?
In the case of a lottery ticket - it is a dollar - no harm done if you lose.

But what if the bet placed is your family home, your retirement savings, the kid's college fund?
I know too many LBSers who faired poorly because they felt certain that "their MLCer" was different, that "their MLCer would do no harm".

Personally I don't care if a person stands or doesn't stand.
As NYM states - in the case of religious conviction - it really doesn't matter.
But I do care - like Morte - and others - that LBSers don't drink the Kool-aid and think that all MLCers will eventually want to come home - or even 70%.

At some point a person has to look at the available statistics - and what is available shows very low returns.

If you are a newbie and think that because your MLCer has not filed for divorce you are "safe" for the time being - I would like to suggest you reconsider this.

Many LBSers on this site didn't have their MLCer file for years after BD - but eventually many of them did.
And by that point the MLCer had run up debt (Which in the USA is considered joint debt), spent thousands of dollars on the OW/OM, etc.

The wisdom on this site used to be "let the MLCer own the divorce". 
Law professor has stated time and time again how dangerous this approach is to your financial security.

Some LBSers have the luxury of not being too concerned about their finances - and so they may not be adversely impacted - but the majority of LBSers do need to be concerned about their finances and the financial stability for their children.

The above discussion only addresses financial concerns - but there are other concerns as well.
Living your life in limbo - with your focus on the MLCer is detrimental.
Letting your kids see that your spouse is out shagging some other person brings a certain amount of shame to these kids.

We like to say on here - live as if they were not coming back - ok well what does that actually mean?
It sure doesn't mean sitting on a forum focusing on where in the tunnel this MLCer is.
It doesn't mean speculating on what the MLCer is doing, thinking, etc.
Yet there is a lot of that going on on some threads.

[Nas]

The next best thing might be to listen to what ex-MLCers have to say but they don't seem to last long on this site before the negative nellies drive them away. Most of them that I can recall seemed to have wanted to reconcile although several of them couldn't because the LBS had moved on.

I don't think any ex-MLCer would ever end up on a site like this unless they were hoping to reconcile.  There are many sites dedicated to MLC.  If someone were looking for a forum to post about having had an MLC and didn't have an LBS they had lost and wanted back, I doubt they would choose a site for standers/LBS to post their story about their MLC on.  They would choose one of the other MLC sites like MLC Club or somewhere else where they can discuss their MLC in terms of how it affected them. 

[RedStar]

But does that mean you think they shouldn't be made aware of the fact that chances of a successful reconciliation is low? 

Good, you asked instead of actually jumping to a false dilemma conclusion. And I will answer that question.

No, it does not mean that I think that at ALL.

If anything I hope comes through here, it's that I am interested in *accuracy.* And my view of HS is that there is no way in hell that anyone coming here and actually reading things is going to believe that the "chances" are high. Just reading the site is enough to give that awareness.

Again, we don't have absolute concrete facts, but we have a very very good idea of the liklihood based on the numbers computed by Acorn.  Don't like those numbers, how how the re-marriage statistics LP used earlier?  Or is re-marriage not required for successful recon?

As I said, the computations don't necessarily map the way people may assume they do. More specifically, they don't show the true historical picture of whatever we want to call recon, which as you note is *also* not monolithic in definition. And, we cannot, in any given real situation, use historical measures as a "likelihood" of it having a certain outcome, even if we *had* true past figures.
 
I...really would like to give some mathematical examples, too, of how sometimes, we apply a perfectly logical measurement tool to something that is not measurable with it. But I'll have to think about that. Or other members might know what I'm getting at there and chime in.

But if you are dedicated to standing, the odds shouldn't matter.

While this is true as stated...I say that not only can we not know the odds, but such a concept actually does not even *apply* if you get down to it.

Sorry folks...this is getting into the philosophical realm and that is one reason I have a hard time posting anything! Aaaaaa! 

[Not Applicable]

The reconciliation statistics are meaningless IMO. This may sound cold but if only 1 out of 1000 reconcile and that 1 is me then the other 999 don't matter. If I give up because I'm told chances of reconciliation are extremely low, then I become 1 of the 999 and that skews the statistics.

I got my PhD in a field where there are very few jobs at the end. My professors warned me of this. But of course, when you are young, you don't care so much. I said to myself, well someonehas to get those few professor jobs. Well, by time I finished the PhD, I no longer had any desire to be a professor, so it didn't really matter anymore what the stats were, but I think if I had wanted a professorship, I probably would have been kicking myself for being so stubborn and naive.

The thing is some people will come out of this not caring about the stats because they will move on to someone/something else with their lives, but those who ignore the stats and aren't so young anymore to remake their lives, may wind up with nothing to show for it.

[Songanddance]

New thread please - locking this one.  I will link any new/replacement thread.

Thanks