[Nerissa]

If you were going to pick say three MLC lens beliefs, what would they be? Those ones where if you logically believe that MLC exists, you accept that you also believe x y and z? And how do those beliefs keep you stuck or help you?

1) I believed this was a phase. 

2) That it was the opposite to what he had been.

3)  I believed he was working through issues with his upbringing.

4)  I believed he was a sensitive soul who, due to The pressures of life and work had corrupted himself and could not find a way back to integrity. 

5)I believed he was struggling with aging and having failed to gain a specific high(er)  status position at work. 

6)I believed that love and patience in my part would win the day.

I still think there is some truth in 1, 3, 4 and 5. 

  A lot of education and therapy taught me that he is not the opposite of what he had been, despite appearances and assumptions.  I learned that the seeds were always there in a more innocuous way but that I had ignored them or considered them less important than they are.  I overestimated his commitment to me and the marriage.

I confused loving him back patiently with emotional dependency.

The bottom line should have been, as my old friend who works in mental health told me repeatedly: “It doesn’t matter who he was or what you think will happen.  Look at who he is now and what he is doing and ask yourself if he is being decent and kind. And act on he information you have  in the present”.

One academic view of our minds’ health that I like is that we all move into and out of poor states of mind.  What makes it a mental health problem is if a State of mind becomes chronic and stuck and rigid and does not ebb and flow.  He was definitely stuck but so was I.  Since I’ve improved so has he although isn’t  back either to his old self or to me.  If he ever wants to come back and is healthy enough and compatible  I now believe without doubt he will ask.  I wish I’d been able to take my eyes off him earlier.  That advice was to be found here but I couldn’t accept it.

[terrified_in_TN]

STANDING OVATION TO LP!  Damn that should be required reading...

RedStar, I'm not in the conversation, I'm just reading along the sidelines, so I can't speak for Acorn (or anyone else).  But I don't think she (or anyone else) is trying to take the available information on HS and attempting to present them as factual statistics, but more along the lines as a *general* idea of the odds based on the only immediately available data that we have.

Are the mathematical results likely to produce statistical accurate information?  Of course not.

But I do feel they give a good indicator of the likelihood of reconciliation.

In my industry we do the EXACT same thing.  I work in radio/tv.  In order to rank the most popular stations to the least popular ones (which results in a DIRECT correlation to how much one station can get away with charging for advertising vs another), we sample a portion of the population and extrapolate the results.

I'm fairly confident this is a common approach.

-T

-edited for grammatical flow-

[Thunder]

Great post, LP!

[Father5]

    I am going to very honest with all of you inhopes of figuring this out. I am exactly one year today since I found out about the O/M. As I write this I am crying for the first time in about 8 months, this is crushing me. I feel like I have done all the write things with working on myself and GAL etc. But deep down I always had a glimmer of hope. Holding on to the fact that she hasn't filed her response which was due today or that we talked for the first time a few weeks ago. To you name it I am sure most of you at one point had it.


   Looking at it now I am a little mad at the fact I could have been sold some more truth maybe I would be farthere along ? I don't know the answer to that. But I do believe that IF we are being sold some BS that it should be addressed. I should have facts to back up how I am choosing to feel. I am angry that I will miss the holidays with my kids this year. That she can going travel and smile like everything is going great.

  I am really putting myself out there as far as being nice to her and letting her know the door is open. Maybe I am just a sucker? What I do know is that this thread has reallly stired something up in me to be at work crying and typing away. Maybe this all needed to come out and some good will come out of it. Just an FYI, When I read all of the info here on the site and other sites not just here. I would have assumed my chances where 70/30 to the positive side. I feel like I just got kicked in the gut again!

  I just wanted to write this from someone that is fairly new and had a lot of hopium.

    Thank's to you all I don't know what I would be doing without all of your support.

[Not Applicable]

I counted the pink threads.  17 posters.
17 pink + 12 purple = 29.
29 out of 4926 posters = 0.6 percent. 

0.6 percent or less. Would anyone here make a bet if they had that low a chance to win? Would you invest in something that was such high risk?

People buy lottery tickets every day.

[Mortesbride]

I counted the pink threads.  17 posters.
17 pink + 12 purple = 29.
29 out of 4926 posters = 0.6 percent. 

0.6 percent or less. Would anyone here make a bet if they had that low a chance to win? Would you invest in something that was such high risk?

People buy lottery tickets every day.

Exactly. And how wise of an investment does that turn out to be?

[Acorn]

Shoot, LP, I counted wrong! 
Thank you for your insightful post. 

I am not a statistical researcher, but I wish someone on HS was, because I'm sure they could explain better that what is being counted is not a good correspondence to what you want to measure. It LOOKS relevant, but it really is not. I'm NOT saying that "there are more recons than what show up on HS." I'm saying that the numbers we see on HS simply do not correspond to any relative balance between recon and not.

‘It LOOKS relevant, but it really is not.’   To make this statement, you are sure to know what ‘really is’ relevant.  Could you please elaborate? 

‘The numbers ...... do not correspond to any relative balance between recon and not’.  To make this statement, you are sure to know what ‘relative balance between recon and not’ constitutes.   Could you please elaborate?

[Watcher]

In the United States only 0.5 percent of the population has run a marathon.  Those reconnection odds are slightly better. Just sayin.   

[terrified_in_TN]

I counted the pink threads.  17 posters.
17 pink + 12 purple = 29.
29 out of 4926 posters = 0.6 percent. 

0.6 percent or less. Would anyone here make a bet if they had that low a chance to win? Would you invest in something that was such high risk?

People buy lottery tickets every day.

Exactly. And how wise of an investment does that turn out to be?

To play devil's advocate:  VERY well for a select few.

I think LP said it best and is something that I think like minded individuals have been struggling to find the right words to say during all these "what are the odds" debates:

Knowing the truth about the unlikelihood of reconciliation should NOT impact your HOPE.
However, knowing the truth about the unlikelihood of reconciliation should NOT be an excuse for you to not take action to protect yourself.

Every so often these "what are the odds" debates comes up.  The fact is, we don't have accurate information, period.  But based on anecdotal evidence it seems overwhelming clear that the chances are low.  We just don't know HOW low.

It just *appears* to me (and maybe a few others as well), that a select few posters just don't want that information posted.  The position seems to be that it is irreverent, and potentially harming to the message of the site.

Then there are the posters that feel as I do:  The information needs to be made readily available, as uncomfortable as it may be.  In my mind it is IMPERATIVE that new members who are hurting, desperate, and possibly highly open to suggestion be made aware of ALL available information.  it is up to THEM to decide what to do with that information.  But I believe pretty much as WhyUs does...trying to conceal the fact that the desired outcome is unlikely for almost every single one who arrives here is DANGEROUS.  This is no joke.  This is people's lives we are talking about.

Again, the information presented should not impact ones hope.  They aren't mutually exclusive.  Yet is seems to me, some posters think they are.

-T

[Father5]

   I DO agreee with you TN it should be up to us how we digest it. Though to be honest I did gobble up Shock SIS post and ignored anyone that said anythinbg on the contrary to what I wanted to hear. But that was my fault and my decision.