[xyzcf]

Sorry, I thought you could get there from #CovEducation

Try this:

https://www.facebook.com/nigilharoon/videos/10159645914109167/

[marvin4242]

Thanks sorry don’t really use social media. It’s the privacy/tracking issues and so much misinformation (not this but other posts). I guess I sound like a bit of a tech antagonist which is funny considering I’m a tech person!

[xyzcf]

Yes I don't know how else to get to it..I just listened to the first part...from Kerala India and goggled the following article about how successful they have been:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/kerala-indian-state-flattened-coronavirus-curve

I suspect that you may somehow be able the whole video somewhere else...I will "report" back on any findings.

The above article makes it very clear that Kerala's success is due to
- a strong public health system
-clear communication
-community participation

It's a good read.

[marvin4242]

Thanks xyzcf. Here is an interesting article about what they call “controlled avalanche” approach to achieve herd immunity while minimizing deaths and not overwhelming health care systems. It relies on assumptions that there are a significant number of asymptomatic people and that risk rates are low enough in 50 and under. Essentially you release the virus in non vulnerable population in small waves like how you would do smaller controlled avalanches to prevent a large one later. The risk is there are a lot of estimates that yet have to be backed up with more data.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-25/could-a-controlled-avalanche-stop-the-coronavirus-faster-and-with-fewer-death

[forthetrees]

This article, while based in the UK, explains why hoping for herd immunity won´t help.

https://multiple-sclerosis-research.org/2020/04/covid19-wow/

[Nerissa]

This article, while based in the UK, explains why hoping for herd immunity won´t help.

https://multiple-sclerosis-research.org/2020/04/covid19-wow/

Thank you for this.  It makes bleak reading.  I’m sorry that as an MS sufferer, your life is so curtailed.  It must be a dreadful time for you and I really hope the results of  vaccine trials are successful and that you are able to keep yourself shielded until then

[marvin4242]

This article, while based in the UK, explains why hoping for herd immunity won´t help.

https://multiple-sclerosis-research.org/2020/04/covid19-wow/

I have read the blog entry a few times now. I am missing it. First it seems to be an opinion not really backed by any theory. Second it points to a paper about rapid spread in a facility and asymptomatic transmission. That doesn’t impact herd immunity, rather how we need very good testing and isolation to shield at risk groups. That we can’t use symptom based screening.

Herd immunity in general population is different. It will eventually cause the virus to die out. For at risk population isolation, vaccine and an effective treatment is required.

[forthetrees]

Marvin, what he is saying is that the percentage needed to reach herd immunity is so high that the casualty count in reaching that percentage would be very high. It´s not realistic to expect vulnerable populations to shelter in place for 12-18 months.

I saw a protester photo the other day with the person holding a sign that said, "Sacrifice the Weak, Open the Economy." In what society is that sentiment ok?

The other piece of news is the WHO warning that antibodies are not proof of being protected from a second infection.

The weird irony is that for some people with MS, some of the immune suppressant drugs might actually be of help if the virus is contracted as it may prevent the cytokine storm. It´s just that it seems like Russian roulette at this point.

It looks like we´ll have two very interesting "clinical trials" with the Georgia vs. Hawaii approach to lockdowns. It´s a given that Georgia is going to reap a tragic trajectory that will have been avoidable. We have failed our populace in that most people do not understand the concepts of exponential growth, antibodies, aerosol, viral loads, and the need to have a mask cover your mouth AND nose. At what point will first responders give up and refuse to risk their lives and their childrens´lives to care for idiots who refuse to take the minimal steps to help avoid the spread?

[marvin4242]

FTT: that’s what I read too, and to be clear I completely agree with you. It is very difficult or impossible to ask the at risk population to shelter in place for that long. And no there is no society I am aware of with morals that values human life where we sacrifice some in the society in order to protect finances of others, specially when the society has the wealth to support everyone’s financial survival while we figure out how to solve the problem. Well no modern democratic or enlightened ones anyway.

And WHO clarified its guidance, as it was a scientific statement of confirmation reported but it was interpreted incorrectly by news and some people. There is a widespread belief that the immunity for Covid-19 is same as most other similar viruses. But there is no proof because there has been no large scale studies. So scientific bodies are clarifying that. Its an important distinction but it doesn’t mean that we can’t count on herd immunity.

I personally believe in order to protect the vulnerable we will have to get to herd immunity, by vaccine and by exposure. But it all starts with large scale testing, and sadly US has no centrally coordinated and wartime level effort unlike other countries. And without testing we can’t know what is going on and a reliable way to protect nursing homes and at risk people from exposure.

[terra]

Good morning folks, I live in one of the first counties to quarantine here in the US. We’ve been sheltering in place since before the state order to do so. Partly because locally we had an unusually vicious flu season in 2019, in which I contracted something that laid me out for two full months, to the point of hallucinating. Recently our area is recognized as having had COVID cases earlier than previously known or reported.

On the virus impact to the brain, I have an email in to one of our local neurosurgeons. I’ll let you know here if we hear back from him. For sure, all of this is startling, but definitely bear in mind how our media and other consumption taxes or nurtures our nervous systems. It’s a wonder to me that I am still living after BD and what followed, but — and maybe you can relate — I feel the skills learned along the way since have positioned me and in all likelihood *many* of us to weather this latest and global storm.

I hope that you are all healthy and well, everywhere that you are reading from, and that you also are staying home a lot, or if not, that you are getting the rest and support and nurturing that you need. I do worry that these past few years of crisis living and recovery may mean that each of us is in at-risk category. So please, stay healthy. Keep your loves and your good inputs and your pleasant moments always foremost.

I’m so glad and relieved to see your voices and input here.

Lp, on hair — last week D had had enough of her hair, glossy black and straight and strong, and long enough for her to almost sit on it. She came out of her room one morning after sleeping on it one more night and said “Do it.” We banded her clean tresses into several beautiful locks and now 11” of healthy hair will be sent off to a charity that will make them into hairpieces for children with medical hair loss.

Her hair is still 16” long and now falls to the middle of her back, rather than to whatever she is sitting on. I hope you are able to capture the style and length that you love best, and please, that you will be safe and well protected as you do!