[xyzcf]

Previous thread:
https://mlcforum.theherosspouse.com/index.php?topic=11420.0

I wish to thank Marvin for explaining many things about this virus and what can be done to help get this under control.

LP wrote some important things that I am bringing over from the last thread. I too am very frustrated by some behaviors and actions that put everyone at risk. I found some of LP's points very thought provoking.

It is helpful to me to be able to have these discussions so thank you for all who contribute their knowledge to help us better understand what are the best measures we can take as we move forward.

LP's post from the previous thread

Ah, so vaccine is considered part of creating herd immunity?  Rather than as the article indicated a separate approach to creating a group of people with immunity weeding out those who fall.

I have heard nothing about an at home test being developed as you describe.  In the Midwest I don't think that has been reported on widely.  I hear daily complaints from people as to how their rights are being infringed, how this is all a media overblown nonsense to threaten Trump's reelection, how those who disagree are crazy and unpatriotic, un-American.  I go to work and have to notify families of prisoners that their family member is sick or deceased but then answer phone calls from those who wish to file cases about the infringement of their rights to go fishing, to have a party, to run their non-essential business.  And calls complaining that if this were truly a crisis, the list of essential businesses would not be so extensive.  And the last few days the questions are coming on where to get malaria pills because Trump said he would take them perhaps.  And now the cases come from preachers who are demanding their right to hold Easter services since Trump said he was considering allowing services even though the state has already said absolutely not asking if this is religious persecution.

Truthfully, i would say I feel as if I'm back at home country with the propaganda, but then I can honestly say, in the home country at least we didnt/don't actually believe the propaganda even though we could repeat it as necessary.  The claims of my administration is great, I'm doing great, I have no responsibility for negatives, it's all someone else's fault, you must talk nicely to me to get what you want.  All that is familiar propaganda to those from my country, the cult of personality.  What concerns me is that a large number of people seem to believe blindly and have no ability to discern political propaganda.  In my country, as well, there is respect for scientists and professionals.  Here, I do not see that as necessarily true as I watch the tug of war between Trump and Fauci over the message.

My state county has 42 only positive but we have a low population of humans versus cows out here compared to the city.  Anyway, thank you for the discussion but I must get moving with my day. As always the more I learn the more I find out I really don't know much.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

Thanks for starting this thread xyz and thanks to Marvin for his excellent, and IMO very accurate, explanations. Much better than a lot of the stuff I'm reading on some of the major news sites.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Xyzcf,

Thanks for starting a new thread. Stuck here at home and navigating technology that I never knew existed. Shared drives, my drive, Google meets, Google calendar. I can now set up a meeting, put it on Google Meets, invite my guests via email, and add an agenda to the invite. Wow! I can also record the meeting and save it to my drive or share it with whoever I want.

But person to person is still far better.

I also want to thank Marvin for his posts that provide research and science rather than hoopla.

Truthfully, i would say I feel as if I'm back at home country with the propaganda, but then I can honestly say, in the home country at least we didnt/don't actually believe the propaganda even though we could repeat it as necessary.  The claims of my administration is great, I'm doing great, I have no responsibility for negatives, it's all someone else's fault, you must talk nicely to me to get what you want.  All that is familiar propaganda to those from my country, the cult of personality.  What concerns me is that a large number of people seem to believe blindly and have no ability to discern political propaganda.  In my country, as well, there is respect for scientists and professionals.

I was in Vietnam in 2002 and you are right. The propaganda is there, but no one believes it. It is like taxes, it is there. Now, there are groups of people that feel this is a deliberate attempt to take away our freedoms and ruin our country based upon hoax. My parents started with this belief until I pointed out that they closed the casinos in Vegas and stopped all sports. I told my mom, "They don't shut down casinos and sports on a whim. It's one thing when poor people lose their jobs, quite another when rich people lose money. Remember, those rich people put those government leaders in office. This thing is real, and it is serious."

Guess it went in one ear and out the other. After my brother and I nixed the plan to return them from Texas by having me meet them in El Paso (800 mile drive), they have now purchased tickets on a train. They will have their own compartment car and will ride for 40 hours to get home.
Once again, my brother and I voiced our opposition to this plan, but we can't hold them hostage. They leave in a few hours. I am going to wish them the best and pray for their safety. We have such extremes, we have some people who will do anything to get out of their homes, and people who will do anything they can to get home. 

Well, I have stayed home. Exercised the best I can, and I have limited my trips to once a week to the store for essential items. I know we don't know much about the virus except when it gets into a home or family circle, it spreads quickly like a gas fire. Some people show little to no symptoms and others quickly succumb to it. Lots of ideas on why, but little chance to complete research.

Marvin is right, the vaccine will be the next answer, but it is at the shortest another year away. Of course, by the time it arrives, you will have the naysayers telling everyone not to get the vaccine as it is poison and more dangerous than the virus. Mark my words,

(((((Ready))))

[Thunder]

Oh I'm sorry to hear this Ready.  I hope their ok.  Their just exposing themselves to more people and more germs, but like you said, it was their decision and you can't stop them.

Are they taking a taxi to their home when they get there?

[marvin4242]

LP: the US is nowhere near the stage that Europe is approaching, which is how do we now lift restrictions yet maintain the infection rates at a rate not to overwhelm care. From what I see, US is in a complete wildfire mode with the virus due to the failure of the Federal government, no direct planning, and only what is not much more than haphazard and shifting guidance, and daily misinformation that contradicts science and facts. Compare that to the once or twice a day fact based updates here in UK, the fact that everything is decided by running daily models with updated data as it comes in from around the world, and you may see there is no comparison. What I fear is that the US will have two scenarios play out. In some States that are following protocol they will have a curve closer to Italy (because they all started too late, they were not warned). The other States where they are not doing this and people are still talking like its a hoax we may see what the virus will truly do in a "wildfire" scenario. In fact if you look at the fact that US has some of the lowest testing per capita (and started very late due to rejecting the test kits from overseas then developing a faulty one) we are blind.

Take Florida for example. Not enough testing, no real shutdown from State until a few days ago. The number of known cases is probably a tiny fraction of how many in the population are already exposed. Now over the next 2-4 weeks the wave will crest. US has been showing a doubling of cases every 2 to 3 days, which is very much like an uncontrolled geometric growth. By contrast Spain is now showing a 3% increase per day. Think about the difference, and Spain was not one of the countries that fared well.

Also add to that countries with centralized single payer healthcare coordinate their efforts. They can shift and move resources. In UK they have set up thousands of makeshift hospitals they call "Nightingales" and they are recalling retired or left NHS staff in a coordinated fashion. London was the first hotspot, but it looks like it has turned around. If its the case the resources will most likely be moved north as it is lagging in its spread timing. In the US various states are having to fight over same respirator and supplies by bidding up pricing, and Federal government is bidding against them. In Europe they are doing coordinate purchasing across all countries. Now in US they announced a stockpile of a medication that no one has shown yet to be effective. Why? The real scientists and experts have no idea. Even the 200K death number that they are saying is being questioned because there is model or data shared. It could be actually thought out or it could be made up, no one knows. The misinformation is much more like propaganda than a coordinate flow of up to date information.

I fear that this will throw a direct light on all the fractures and non functioning parts of our health care system. We pretend it's working by obfuscation, and it may be very hard to do that now.

As I said before one of the most interesting things to look at is why Germany has such low rates of fatalities for ICU admission, even compared to rest of Europe. In UK it is around 50%, if you keep in mind that ICU admission is already the very small subset that are going to end up in the mortality rates (not to be mistaken with the 1% rate of overall infections). In Germany I believe its around 15%. In UK by their actions it looks like they may not exceed 50% capacity, and it doesn't look like Germany will either. Yes in US as the wave peaks we may have completely crushed our capacity. I hope not, because if we have a lot of people will die needlessly.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

The numbers for new hospital admissions and new ICU admissions in NY dropped again yesterday to about 1/3 of what they were a few days ago.

Some Eurpoean countries are also reporting better numbers.

I traded some bonds for some stocks this morning.

[readytofixmyselffirst]

Hello,

Are they taking a taxi to their home when they get there?

No, a close friend is picking them up and dropping them off at home. Once home, they will be in the middle of nowhere and should be safe.

Ready

[Thunder]

I'm so glad to hear that, Ready.  I'm sure they will be able to relax once their in their home. 

[OldPilot]

"The people who have had Covid 19 and have recovered are now immune."

Do we know this?  I'm not certain.  I read an article that in China a reasonably concerning percentage of those who had tested negative after having the virus became re-infected when returned to daily life conditions living among others who were positive. 

IMHO this will depend on whether the virus mutates or remains the same.

It is a HORRIBLE strain and there is a good chance it WILL mutate,
so people would then be reinfected with a different virus but would be immune to the original one.

[xyzcf]

It is a HORRIBLE strain and there is a good chance it WILL mutate,
so people would then be reinfected with a different virus but would be immune to the original one.

We are still learning a lot about this virus and will be for sometime...which is why the information that we gave to people a month ago has changed.

What I am presently reading, is that the scientists have not seen signs of the virus mutating, which is a good thing. They cannot say with 100% certainty that once infected you will not get it again, because they are still obtaining data.

I think that the chances are good that immunity does occur.

Time will tell and it's too soon to say for sure this will happen.