[Mortesbride]

I think the important point is what was said about one of the new members believing their chances are 70/30 in which he has based a great deal of belief in. To then find out it is closer to 0.6% is a huge discrepancy.

So regardless of if the actual number is 0.6, or 1, or 2, or 3.....it is still significantly lower than where a lot of new people may think their odds are (30-50%) and I think that SHOULD be addressed because people don't have a real idea or representation of what the actual chances are. Some even believe that if they wait long enough THEY ALL COME BACK (100%).

And every time some sort of actual idea or number or estimate is given, in as much as a way as we can, that information gets shot down and pulled apart.

Everyone has a right and stage to choose when to stand. But they shouldn't be standing under the illusion that 30-50% come back, when the number is likely far far far below that.

I also think it should be stressed more that even if they do come back, and try to reconnect...that doesn't mean reconciliation will occur, and also that reconciliation itself isn't a walk in the park. I think a lot of that gets glossed over in the beginning and people only come to see this information by following people who are in it over time.

[Airmid]

Oooh watch out Morte.
Language like that will get you moderated or possibly banned!
This is creating an "unsafe environment" for the standers!!!

[Not Applicable]

I'll just say this, if one is standing for religious reasons, then stats shouldn't matter. Whether they even come back or not shouldn't matter. Because one is standing based on principles that one plans to uphold forever, regardless of the outcome.

[terrified_in_TN]

Not to stir the pot (where is that pot stiring emoji),  but I think we mostly could all agree the odds of a successful recon is less than the odds of not reconciling.

I think it was Anjae that used to state this quite frequently, but if you really want to have a debate, then would you say that the reasons for recon being small is because the MLCer doesn't want to come back/is stuck/won't do the work/etc, or the LBS won't have them back...

I can't speak for her, and if I am wrong somebody correct me, but I *believe* her opinion was that MOST will WANT to come back, but FEW of them would (because of the MLCer OR the LBSer wouldn't want them back).  Have no way of knowing, but she might have been right.

-T

 

[marvin4242]

Wow what a great thread with so much great insight, posts, viewpoints and wisdom.

Only thing I wanted to add is this: if you were given 1% chance to win a lottery you may decide not to try, if you were given 1% chance to beat terminal disease almost every person would try anyway.

The difference? Whether you think your survival depends on what you are trying for. And there is the crux perhaps. LBSes need to heal and stand on their own and get to a place where reconciliation in NO WAY is related to their survival and well being. Then they can decide what the odds mean to them.

[RedStar]

I think the important point is what was said about one of the new members believing their chances are 70/30 in which he has based a great deal of belief in. To then find out it is closer to 0.6% is a huge discrepancy.

And this is why I came out of my general lurkdom on this subject. (Not to argue with Morte. But to try to head off the direction people can run with things like this, since I know you all have more sense than an MLCer! LOL)

People are *taking* what the site can count for something it can't.

The "chances" are not calculable from this site's numbers, I maintain. And even if the proportion of recons really has been that percentage in practice, by happenstance? It still has absolutely NO bearing on this new member's situation. His chance might be 70/30. We do not have the ability to advise him of odds.

You'll all hate me for this...but Acorn's chances, for example, are now a lot closer to 100%. (I'll add that this was not apparent for a number of years, was it? So what were her chances a few years ago...?)

Maybe I should really just say, after all, that we need to stop trying to measure this, because it actually does not matter and can be harmful no matter which way people want to believe the perceived numbers to lead.

Another way to put it is, let's be qualitative rather than quantitative. This site is really good at that!

[terrified_in_TN]

I think the important point is what was said about one of the new members believing their chances are 70/30 in which he has based a great deal of belief in. To then find out it is closer to 0.6% is a huge discrepancy.

.... It still has absolutely NO bearing on this new member's situation. His chance might be 70/30. ...

You are right.  We have no way of knowing HIS particular chances.  We don't know their entire situation.  We don't know their spouse.  There is much we don't know so I agree there is no way to provide particular odds for a particular member.

But does that mean you think they shouldn't be made aware of the fact that chances of a successful reconciliation is low?  Again, we don't have absolute concrete facts, but we have a very very good idea of the liklihood based on the numbers computed by Acorn.  Don't like those numbers, how how the re-marriage statistics LP used earlier?  Or is re-marriage not required for successful recon?

There is just too many unique factors surrounding all of this, I will give you that.

But if you are dedicated to standing, the odds shouldn't matter.  But I maintain INACTION based upon a false notion of a highly probable chance of a successful reconciliation *CAN* have dire, life altering consequences.  Again, this is peoples lives were talking about.  Arm them with the best information we have available at the time, and let them decide what is best.

-T

[Not Applicable]

And what hell did Acorn have to go through to get there?

If you want to talk about quality vs. quantity, I think everyone who does reconcile goes through a very difficult time. As do those that don't reconcile.

Except for a select few who may just be lying to themselves to try to feel better, the quality of the MLC experience is $h!te for all of us who stand. And we all have to go through it regardless of the outcome.

[MyBrainIsBroken]

I didn't come to this site looking for advice. I came to this site because I was trying to figure out what happened to my wife. The changes I saw in her simply didn't make sense. But I wasn't looking for advice. I simply needed to know what happened to her. Once I understood that I knew I was capable of deciding what to do without anyone else telling me.

The support I received from people on this site was extremely helpful as I tried to deal with a situation that made no sense. The advice, though I'm sure well-intentioned, was often annoying. Being told to take my eyes off my wife and focus on myself when I was trying to figure out why my wife was doing what she was doing was not helpful.

The reconciliation statistics are meaningless IMO. This may sound cold but if only 1 out of 1000 reconcile and that 1 is me then the other 999 don't matter. If I give up because I'm told chances of reconciliation are extremely low, then I become 1 of the 999 and that skews the statistics.

MLC lasts a very long time and is very hard on LBSes. The only real conclusion I feel I can draw, based on what I've learned from reading thousands of posts over the past 5 years, is that most LBSes give up long before their MLCer comes out of the tunnel. Posting statistics that state that only about .0025% of the members on this site have posted reconciliations threads will only increase the number of LBSes who give up, IMO.

If you want some meaningful statistics, perhaps you should contact all LBSes who have been HS members for at least 10 years, get contact info from them for their MLCers, and then contact the MLCers and ask how many of them would have reconciled if they would have had that option. But the site hasn't been around long enough for that to work. So we're trying to assign meaning to statistics for a long term disorder from a site that has only been around for a short time and doesn't reflect the MLCers POV. Good luck with that!

The next best thing might be to listen to what ex-MLCers have to say but they don't seem to last long on this site before the negative nellies drive them away. Most of them that I can recall seemed to have wanted to reconcile although several of them couldn't because the LBS had moved on.

We have an acronym in the data processing field, GIGO. Stands for Garbage In Garbage Out. RedStar is correct. The "data" you are processing to determine the odds of reconciliation occurring is useless, primarily because you aren't correcting for all of the LBSes who decide not to stand or who decide to quit standing.

Now that I feel that I have a pretty good idea what caused my wife's MLC, I figure the odds of her wanting to return are pretty good. Better than even. But I can't say that this applies to anybody else's situation. Everyone has to decide that for themselves and it's going to depend on the cause of the spouses "MLC".

I figure my odds of reconciliation are still dependent on whether I'm willing to be there for my wife if she becomes ready to return. If I were more easily swayed by other people's opinions discussions like this one wouldn't help me to eventually reconcile as this discussion seems to be doing a great job of spreading doubt and killing hope.

In the United States only 0.5 percent of the population has run a marathon.  Those reconnection odds are slightly better. Just sayin.   

I've completed 6 marathons and I'm not done yet. Based on this comment I guess my odds of reconnecting are pretty good. Primarily because MLC truly is a marathon, not a sprint. LBSes who don't have the stamina to handle a marathon are going to continue to skew the reconciliation statistics, not because reconciliation couldn't have happened for them but because they chose to drop out of the race before it was over.

Oooh watch out Morte.
Language like that will get you moderated or possibly banned!
This is creating an "unsafe environment" for the standers!!!

Inflammatory comments like this aren't helpful either.

[gman242]

This IMHO so please take it FWIW and so on and so forth..

When I joined this site, I was encouraged to focus on me and my S. I would worry about where my xw was "in the process" and the attention was shifted back on me frequently. What was I doing for me? For my mental health? For S's health?

RCR warns about "stage obsession" and I see worrying about stats and what being an MLCer is like as much of the same thing. It's fine I think to come to an understanding of what happened, to draw our own conclusions and to make peace with it, which should be the goal. The point of the website is standing and that's highly personal. But the subtext is standing isn't standing still either. the forum is here for support, friendship and fellowship.

I'll challenge everyone here to think deeply about what they are doing for themselves; to be happy, to thrive and to live life as best they can. That doesn't mean dating or not standing. What are you doing for you and your children, if you have them that live with you? I believe, that if you're watching your MLCer, you're not watching yourself and you are putting you on hold. if you are putting you first, what they're doing doesn't matter. Standing is up to you for as long as you want to do it and you should be supported in that. But you come first. It's not standing, while standing still.

I also think it's fine for people to stay here and support one another as many people have made friends over the years and that shouldn't be wrong, to want to hang out with them and support them too. RCR controls the site and its message and while the forum follows, is much more nuanced.

So that said, there's room for all opinions, but regardless, the focus should be on you ultimately.