[MyBrainIsBroken]

Some interesting news out of California related to antibody testing. It's still early but this is the kind of testing we need. It makes you wonder whether the countries that seem to have done a better job of containing the virus really did so or whether their population demographics made them less susceptible to the serious effects of the virus.

I haven't seen much interest in this study from the major media outlets.

From the article:

That said, the early findings indicate that between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1, back when the official count was 956. The estimate is based on 3,330 blood samples that were taken from volunteers in Mountain View, Los Gatos and San Jose on April 3 and April 4 and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 .

...

Given the study's estimate of 48,000 to 81,000 infections in early April – and a three-week lag from infection to death – the 100 deaths suggest that the infection fatality rate is between 0.12% and 0.2%.

That's a far contrast from the county's mortality rate based on official cases and deaths as of April 17 -- 3.9%.

https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/17/stanford-study-more-than-48000-santa-clara-county-residents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

[marvin4242]

Thanks MBIB, you are right, I haven’t seen this reported much. But then again it says it is under peer review, so not yet published. If it holds up to review it will be great. There has been a belief that as we get more and more data and we start including asymptomatic and people who don’t report the death toll would approach 1% or under 1% but this would be much lower. That would be great news indeed.

[OffRoad]

I find the US terribly under reports recovered cases because as mentioned there isn't enough testing of the people who are not in the hospital and just get better.  (Limited followup testing). So it makes the numbers look worse than they are.

A point about comparing Covid -19 to say chicken pox/shingles. Sure, this could lay dormant in a person's system for years, then pop up as something "else". From a paranoid point of view, if this was actually an engineered virus to weed out the infirm, then when someone who had the virus and recovered previously later became infirm, it could pop back up (kind of like shingles often happens in older people who had chicken pox when they were younger). We cannot possibly know that until we get Covid -19 under control, anyway, nor could we have enough data about it for years. Being aware is fine, but panicking because "it might be" is fruitless.

I also liked the study MBIB mentions. I have little doubt my son had covid -19. Fever, chills, invaded the lungs, pneumonia, felt like someone was sitting on his chest, lasted for several weeks. Yet he was never even tested and that was at the beginning of March. How many might there be like that?

[Milly]

Marvin thank you for your informed, scientific views, which make a lot of sense to me.

From my home in Italy, I look at Germany and their success so far at handling the virus. Speaking as a lay person with no medical knowledge whatsoever, I would say that it would be sensible to study the countries that have handled it best, and emulate them. It seems to us here in Italy, that Germany not only made a huge effort to test as many people as possible around people with a confirmed Covid 19 test, but also had the hospital facilities to handle lots of very sick people.

Our death rate is going down in Italy, also because we are now able to handle a larger number of very sick patients, due to impromptu hospitals being set up. Just looking at Boris Johnson, which I realize means absolutely nothing science wise, but since he is the PM, I imagine he was taken to hospital as soon as his breathing became difficult. He was also then in the ICU for 3 nights just for monitoring. I do believe that if everyone who becomes sick to the same point as Boris Johnson could have access to same medical attention, the death rates would be much lower. What I'm saying is, since this virus isn't going to go away for a while, a way to move forward would be to set our countries up with enough ICU beds and staff and equipment to handle a large number of sick so that it is not longer a 50/50 death sentence. I feel, and I say as a lay person, that if we could take full care of the very sick patients, we might be able to risk opening up businesses again. Just an idea.

[marvin4242]

Milly: it is heartening to see the numbers from Italy, but part of it I fear is social behaviour. The curve in Italy is turning around but not as steeply as other countries when they pass the peak, which may imply people are not sticking to strict distancing. And seeing 30K citations written in Italy Easter weekend was a bit of letdown.

The easing will be (by everyone’s planning) by being able to test a lot more, finding the people with immunity allowing more selective isolation, and hopefully better treatments like retroviruses that can be used before the situation escalates. That is until there is an effective vaccine, but even an effective vaccine is not 100%. So changing behaviour should be incorporated into any eventual easing.

I see too many people who simply are careless even in the simplest ways. Not sure why its hard for people to just “get in.”

From a paranoid point of view, if this was actually an engineered virus to weed out the infirm, then when someone who had the virus and recovered previously later became infirm, it could pop back up (kind of like shingles often happens in older people who had chicken pox when they were younger).

OffRoad: honestly right now is exactly the time to stick to facts and science rather than paranoia, misinformation and various made up theories spread by people with agenda. The whole idea that this is “engineered’ is not only preposterous from the Occam’s Razor angle but also because we do not have the technology yet for something like that. I for one think it’s irresponsible to even give voice to such none sense when a lot of people are already at high anxiety and are trying to separate fact from misinformed daily rantings of many.

[OffRoad]

From a paranoid point of view, if this was actually an engineered virus to weed out the infirm, then when someone who had the virus and recovered previously later became infirm, it could pop back up (kind of like shingles often happens in older people who had chicken pox when they were younger).

OffRoad: honestly right now is exactly the time to stick to facts and science rather than paranoia, misinformation and various made up theories spread by people with agenda. The whole idea that this is “engineered’ is not only preposterous from the Occam’s Razor angle but also because we do not have the technology yet for something like that. I for one think it’s irresponsible to even give voice to such none sense when a lot of people are already at high anxiety and are trying to separate fact from misinformed daily rantings of many.

That was exactly my point, in case you missed the part about not panicking about "what ifs". That people will take what they see written, put their own spin on it, then panic about something that may not be reality or ever come to fruition. Rather than censoring what other people say, people should learn to be critical thinkers. You can't control what others say, you CAN  control how you, (any person)as an individual, want to interpret it.

And while it was simply an example of something I read, it's no less possible than many other possibilities. Random virus that kills multitudes of people happens to appear out of the blue? Engineered virus appears suddenly? Both possible,  neither probable or we would not be in this situation. Even now, the theory is that "probably" this or that happened and it made the jump to humans is all anyone has. I can find no confirmed cases of covid 19 in bats, other Corona virus' yes, but not covid 19. I don't shut my mind to possibilities because they might be scary. It's what keeps my doors locked when I live in a neighborhood where the possibility of being murdered is less than .00003.

Facts are, there is no confirmed path to the true origin of how Covid 19 got to humans. Might have been bats or pigs or mice or who knows what. If the media will print anything they want, people need to be critical thinkers to protect themselves.

[marvin4242]

Offroad: I am having trouble following what you are saying. On one hand you say something is not likely, then you throw out outlandish paranoid theories. We do have a pretty good guesses of how the virus crossed over to humans. How do you think most viruses appear in humans?

Are you just supposing things out of thin air as true? Because viruses cross species rarely, but they do not impact them the same way. For example we already have seen Covid-19 can cross from humans to cats, but it doesn’t do the same thing to cats as it does to humans. And it can not cross back. So cat owners please don’t worry.

You say be a critical thinker. Ok it begins with actually listening to experts, learning about the area of interest, and NOT negate what is current state of the knowledge in a field. An open mind isn’t the same as listening to everything that is said. And no some things are WAY less possible than others, that is the whole premise of Occam’s Razor.

Please show me one practitioner in the field or expert who says this is an engineered virus and what evidence in the genetic sequence, where the root virus is, what was spliced into it, and what vectors are used to release it. Reading something in a paper, listening to talk radio show hosts, or any talking head that comes on is not an open mind, it is simply choosing to ignore knowledge and expertise.

All our opinions are not equal in all fields. We should go the experts in a field when we are truly open minded. Go to a psychologist to discuss human psyche. Go to a neuroscientist to discuss human nervous system. Go to research scientists who study viruses, people who study human immunology, practicing doctors to learn about Covid-19.

[xyzcf]

Something I find very concerning is that the media is reporting very very preliminary findings and then people are taking that as "fact".  This is a NEW virus and we have already seen changes in recommendations and models based upon data that is being generated every day.

The danger in the very fast dissemination of information is that it tends towards sensational headlines but without the scientific method to "prove" that this information is correct.

There is a reason why science is cautious and methodical. I agree, that I would much rather listen to experts in the field of infectious diseases rather than a political leader who talks about things because he has a "hunch" that this will work out well.

[Milly]

Marvin, valid points, Italians did sneak out Easter weekend, which is very disappointing to those who stayed cooped up. So strict quarantine is one of the major answers. Funnily enough, I am watching a talk show on TV right now. This is a serious talk show that would usually be about politics but it's now about the coronavirus. Two things they pointed out, talking about Italy of course. First, they went to our China town near Florence. I've written about it before. To this day, they have not had one death from Coronavirus. They couldn't hide it because they need to use the normal local Italian hospital. One of the main things they did differently, was to shut themselves off in early at the end of January when the virus was spreading in China. They copied what their families were doing in China. Everything in our China town shut down. They've been shut for nearly 3 months now. The tv show interviewed businesses in the area where our China town is and where some of the Chinese worked, and they said that the Chinese took as many vacation days as they were due and then quit, they refused to work once they knew that the virus had reached Italy. They imposed their own isolation.

The second thing, which you mention, will be better treatments. On the show they are talking about Lombardy, in the north of Italy, treating very sick patients with the plasma from people who have recovered from covid 19. They are having great results from this. The problem they say is the limited amount of this plasma available. Lombardy can get lots because they've had lots of cases. Other areas of Italy will not have this available to them. Still, it's very promising. I'm sure you know about it.

[marvin4242]

The second thing, which you mention, will be better treatments. On the show they are talking about Lombardy, in the north of Italy, treating very sick patients with the plasma from people who have recovered from covid 19. They are having great results from this. The problem they say is the limited amount of this plasma available. Lombardy can get lots because they've had lots of cases. Other areas of Italy will not have this available to them. Still, it's very promising. I'm sure you know about it.

Thanks Milly I had forgotten to mention the plasmapheresis from people who have recovered. It is a great treatment, but obviously you need donors and bit involved. And that won’t help less developed countries or regions.