[marvin4242]

So here is more progress, WHO has approved and will be providing low cost and fast tests for low and middle income countries. There is nothing that says these same tests can't be used for rapid testing in other places (and I believe Germany and other European countries have put in orders already).

Although not as accurate they are pretty good and can be had for I believe around $5/test with subsidies including large orders from the Gates Foundation to assure cost/availability.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/28-09-2020-global-partnership-to-make-available-120-million-affordable-quality-covid-19-rapid-tests-for-low--and-middle-income-countries

[xyzcf]

I find Dr. Sharkawy to be the most level headed logical physician that I pay attention to even though I live in the US. I trust him. He knows his stuff. I am guilty of socializing with people who do not live in my home, outdoors, social distancing for sure but not always following wearing a mask. I keep telling myself that the numbers are good in Colorado, even though they have increased substantially in the last few weeks.I share because I care and people are still not getting it. I know we are fed up with the restrictions but I also know that we can prevent the spread of COVID...we can limit the deaths and long term sequela but we must be committed to what DR Sharkawy and other experts are saying.During SARS, contact tracing and quarantine of people who were in contact with a SARS case was really strict. I just don't see that happening and contract tracing and quarantine must be done to stop this.

Todays' post from Dr Abdu Sharkaway

Dr Sharkaway is a doctor and an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto in Canada.

Listen up Ontario & Quebec...and anywhere else that is evidently in the throes of the 2nd wave of Covid-19.  The graphic below says it all. Rate of new cases is accelerating MORE QUICKLY than in the first wave. It is NOT due to increased testing. It is proportionately higher despite more total tests.
This is the result of many factors including the following:
- a huge pool of susceptible persons who did the right thing in the spring, avoiding exposure and who have now apparently given up (age < 40 I'm talking to you)
- Re-established indoor business, schools, other public institutions without optimal testing & tracing infrastructure
- lack of vigilance with an assumption that the virus has somehow mutated & weaker, therefore not much of a threat anymore 🤦‍♂️
Hospitals and ICUs in many regions are ALREADY near or at capacity. Flu has not yet arrived. Other seasonal respiratory viruses have not yet arrived. When they do, we cannot afford to risk collapse of our health care system's capacity. It happened in Italy, NYC and Texas. It's not a veiled threat. We need to turn this around and NOW. We cannot allow more nursing home residents to die needlessly. We cannot allow more 45 year olds to suffer Covid related strokes and cardiac  complications. We cannot allow non-Covid related health issues to resurface with renewed intensity, canceling cancer surgeries, joint replacements and other important procedures. We cannot afford more economic fallout throughout our community. It will be worse than the first wave if we don't get real. NOW.
I'm going to make this easy to understand.  You decide how hard it is to execute:
1. STOP socializing with ANYONE not living with you. Cousins count. Neighbors count. Everybody with a different address counts. Bubbles mean next to nothing now. It's been a "bubble bath" for weeks. This is a purely artificial contruct now.
2. MASK 😷 EVERYWHERE you go INDOORS and cover your mouth AND nose. If businesses are not enforcing this, report them to local PHU. A visit from an inspector & a fine ought motivate them if your words don't.
3. Distance. Mind your space in lineups. Pay attention!
4. Hand wash but don't fool yourself that this is a substitute for 1-3. It's actually the least important. By FAR.
5. Take a deep breath. This will last as long as we allow it to. Yes. It's in OUR HANDS. Don't get tired of standing up vs Covid-19 because it will always outlast us otherwise. Support each other. Be kind. Be patient. Be forgiving but be firm and focused too. We are in this altogether. It's not a euphemism. It's the truth.
PLEASE be safe everyone. We don't need to panic. We just have to focus. And we can.
God bless you one and all 🙏

[xyzcf]

the part about not socializing with anyone who doesn’t live with you is not always feasible.

I agree with you. That is why testing and quarantining those who have been exposed allows other people to go about their lives, with precautions...but when the numbers are getting so high, it's almost impossible to do that kind of public health control measure.

My golf league is having a year end banquet, outdoors but there will be eating and talking and 48 people are attending. I don't think that is safe, especially because even out on the golf course, several people do not follow the protocols. Each of us tries to determine how safe activities are. From the begining I had decided I would not attend. It isn't necessary to me to have a year end golf banquet this year.

It's been a really tough 7 months and still more to go. Canada has a different way of dealing with things and they are already closing in...we have Canadian Thanksgiving in 2 weeks and it's those types of "family gatherings" that have the potential to transmit the virus.

[barbiedoll]

I am in Ontario , less than an hour from Toronto . We are watching the cases increase very quickly with 700 Monday and today 554 with the majority in Toronto and its burbs. My H works in Toronto and is in and out of there several times a week and he is considered high risk with underlying health issues. It is damn scary . They have made some cut backs and restrictions in terms of bars closing at 11, changes to visitors in long term seniors homes , mandatory masks, 10 people only indoors and 25 outdoors..  They will be further announcements tomorrow apparently and I for one hope there are some shut-downs and a far more serious penalty for non-compliance.  The high school at the end of our street has an "outbreak", the funeral home on the corner has people standing on the street to comply and many of the resturants close at 3 .  My daughters University did NOT open at all and she is teaching , marking and continuing to work on her PHD all online . She has ZERO source of income as she was teaching piano in our home and that has stopped since march. The University pays a small amount to her for marking. I can see the stress and unhappiness on her face as socially she is almost a recluse.    I have returned to online grocery shopping , only eating at home and just resolved to early hibernation mode. We will not be going anywhere that is not absolutely essential.  Since there typically is 32 of us for thanksgiving ...all of it is cancelled . There is no way to make it work without risking a 10,000.00 fine ...not that I would break the rules anyway.  Very stressful times and this is only the start of the "second wave ". 

[Treasur]

I'm going to make this easy to understand.  You decide how hard it is to execute

This doctor sounds like an informed straight-shooting kind of chap. And we probably need more of that.

Here in the UK cases are rising exponentially again in the last couple of weeks and there are differences in different parts of the country. Despite the blah blah, the reality is that we do not have an effective robust national testing or tracing system yet. It doesn't feel like there is much of a plan tbh. it is interesting to see that people's reactions are different than they were in March....the 'advice' is less clear, politicians seem to be less trusted, people feel disheartened and are responding in different ways and questioning the basis for decisions more. In a way I suppose we are all trying to make risk assessments based on something we can't see with limited data that we are not sure is reliable.......trying to use our common sense in a situation where our government seems to not be doing so in a way which is immediately transparent. The jokes about coronavirus only waking up at 10pm when the pubs here now have to close are becoming more frequent  ....as are the questions about why the 'rule of six' means you can't see your grandma in your house but you can sit in a train carriage with strangers on your way to work....further announcements here today too, Barbie 

I wonder tbh if it is not unlike the post-BD experience of figuring out our own POV of the reality we can see and taking tough decisions on the back of that? If actually it is a series of deeply personal questions....do I believe x or y, does x matter more than doing y....and that the answers may be genuinely quite difficult ones to swallow based on our circumstances. The execution of them as the good doctor says.  i am finding that it is usually the smaller choices not the standard ones like wearing a mask that throw me.....when my neighbour's kid runs up and wants to hug me, when a neighbour chum invites me in for coffee in her kitchen bc she doesn't see it as a risk, getting closer to my walking chum to untangle her from a set of brambles.....perhaps it was just easier with more of an absolute lockdown message? Idk.

[marvin4242]

Great thoughts and observations. My only thought is that we as humans are really bad at holding risk and fear in proportion. I think a lot of people don’t “get” the cumulative risk from “small” behaviors. So they think all the small contacts are not risky. It’s hard to see how these amplify when talking about many many people.

I am ignoring the people who are outright ignoring information and are denying facts. But the ones who aren’t tend to fall into too much fear (which is better for everyone but bad for their own well being) or not enough concern.

So Treasur it’s an interesting point that maybe subtlety is part of the problem. It’s easier to “get” simple black and white lockdowns.

[Nerissa]

I’ve been following the rules as it isn’t onerous for me.  Our ‘weak’ spot is my 18 year old because I feel I don’t want to make her stop everything so she has seen close friends in small groups or singly; she has driving lessons; she completed some work in a small office.

That’s mostly it.

But this weekend an old friend from overseas whom I haven’t seen in quite some time asked if I could meet her.  We went to two well known and fairly pricey restaurants in town.  I was very surprised.  I had expected 50/75 % capacity and extensive screening, yet both seemed as full as normal - and both were fully booked several days beforehand.   There was limited screening in one and none in the other.   

I felt sorry for staff as they had no choice but if the virus is spread by aerosol, there was no escaping it, ifmpreaent, for them, or customers.

We were, however, asked to leave both at 10 pm, so they could have only one sitting.  My 18 year old accompanied us to a ‘nice ‘ cafe during  the day and commented that she didn’t feel at all comfortable with the crowding.

It seems to me that a large number of people are living life as they Normally would, despite knowing cases are rising in our city,  even before the majority of undergraduates arrive in 10 days’’ time.

I was cursing my ‘people pleasing’ instincts that I’m supposed to have addressed and am not going to do it again!

[marvin4242]

Well here is another bit of good news, in that one of the vaccines is showing that 2 doses produce a very good antibody and T-cell response which indicates it should be effective against the virus.

In brief: "New results from a clinical trial of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine have shown that the jab can induce a “robust” immune response against the virus, raising hopes it will provide at least some protection against Covid-19 infection.

Scientists from the partnership gave the vaccine to 60 healthy volunteers aged 18 to 55 in April and May and found that two doses produced antibodies and T cells that should fight the virus. Antibodies take on the virus directly, while T cells destroy cells that the virus invades."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7

[lawprofessor]

Here in N Illinois, my district, we are back under mitigation.  This means we are now closings bars early, no eating inside restaurants, large gatherings are prohibited etc.  My county positivity rate was 10.3% the other day.  For me that means fewer hours I can work so a lower paycheck as courts have limited hours. 

Yet, schools are open, universities are open, football and baseball and soccer are being played.  One furniture store was fined and closed for allowing people to shop without masks.  Yet the casinos and slot places are doing a booming business and at any one time you can see 1 in 6 aren't wearing masks according to a study done by a research group here.  Since schools and universities opened our positivity rate has increased from 3.7% to hovering around 10% with an increase in hospitalizations as well.

We have around 17% unemployment and another 29% are reporting working at part time rates.  Evictions are cranking up as the courts are beginning to work through a back log.  Domestic violence is up.  The power companies are now doing their pre-winter shut offs for non-payment of bills.  And record numbers if people are signing up for food assistance. 

Yet people are driving the 30 minutes to the state border to go to bars, casinos, restaurants, and apple picking in a state with a 22% positivity rate.  And so our numbers are climbing.  But according to the newspaper people see no correlation and are puzzled as to why numbers are rising. 

38 of 41 of our schools have reported cases of Covid but all remain open.  States can't process unemployment claims timely since the offices are short staffed and many work from home but it's ok to tell factory workers to return to the lines where cleaning and social distancing are impossible, that is IF the factory has orders, which most don't.

It's the contradictions that are confusing and angering in my perspective.  The jokes are the same, the virus awakens after 11 pm when the bars close and knows where state and county lines are drawn.  People are angry and getting angrier.  I hear more and more say they don't trust a vaccine and won't be getting it if one becomes available.  The Federal government says one thing, the CDC another, this state has different rules from the state 30 minutes north or the state 2 hours west, different countries and different towns have different rules, different districts have different rules.  We've had a variety of scientists and doctors say contradictory things. 

Is it any wonder people are confused, tired, and angry, yearning for a return to normalcy? 

Lp

[LBS_Les]

I am in Ontario , less than an hour from Toronto . We are watching the cases increase very quickly with 700 Monday and today 554 with the majority in Toronto and its burbs. My H works in Toronto and is in and out of there several times a week and he is considered high risk with underlying health issues. It is damn scary . They have made some cut backs and restrictions in terms of bars closing at 11, changes to visitors in long term seniors homes , mandatory masks, 10 people only indoors and 25 outdoors..  They will be further announcements tomorrow apparently and I for one hope there are some shut-downs and a far more serious penalty for non-compliance.  The high school at the end of our street has an "outbreak", the funeral home on the corner has people standing on the street to comply and many of the resturants close at 3 .  My daughters University did NOT open at all and she is teaching , marking and continuing to work on her PHD all online . She has ZERO source of income as she was teaching piano in our home and that has stopped since march. The University pays a small amount to her for marking. I can see the stress and unhappiness on her face as socially she is almost a recluse.    I have returned to online grocery shopping , only eating at home and just resolved to early hibernation mode. We will not be going anywhere that is not absolutely essential.  Since there typically is 32 of us for thanksgiving ...all of it is cancelled . There is no way to make it work without risking a 10,000.00 fine ...not that I would break the rules anyway.  Very stressful times and this is only the start of the "second wave ".

Im in Toronto and ya, the 700 spike the other day had me a bit worried.  I haven't been adhering to the bubble policy to be honest, because of the point about the "doing my part in the spring".   But I'm in isolation and will likely not meet up with friends for a while, until our numbers come down

I know our cases are on the rise, but I'm focused on hospitalizations and ICU statistics.   Those are back on the uprise, so Im going to try to revert back to spring time behaviour - out for Groceries only.

650+ cases today with a 67K Backlog of test cases